社会科学作为规则体系

Social Science as a System of Rules

如今，知识量的增长速度比以往任何时候都快。那么，如何才能形成一个统一的社会科学理论呢？答案在于抽象，在于发现规则或关系（而非简单的事实）以及将规则与其他规则联系起来的能力。

Today the amount of knowledge is increasing faster than ever. How, then, can a unified social science theory ever be formulated? The answer is found in abstraction and the ability to discover rules or relationships (rather than simply facts) and rules relating rules to other rules.

要理解掌握规则的重要性，回想一下小学学习加法的时候。你不需要记住127加1448的和，而是学习一种关于加法的算法（规则的别称）（7 + 8 = 15；记下5，并进位1……）。那时你只需要记住一些关系。通过将数字系统从十进制改为二进制（只有0和1），你大大减少了记忆量（你只需要知道0 + 0 = 0；0 + 1 = 1；以及1 + 1 = 10），你可以反复应用相同的规则，将所有可能的数字相加（这一发现在计算机的发展中发挥了重要作用）。掌握规则可以让你免于大量的记忆，同时还能让你获取大量信息。

To understand the importance of knowing rules, think back to grade school when you learned addition. You didn’t memorize the sum of 127 and 1,448. Instead you learned an algorithm (a fancy name for a rule) about adding (7 + 8 = 15; write down the 5 and carry the 1...). Then you had to memorize only a few relationships. By changing the number system from a base ten system to a binary system (0 and 1 are the only numbers), you cut substantially the amount of memorization (all you need to know is 0 + 0 = 0; 0 + 1 = 1; and 1 + 1 = 10) and you could apply the same rule again and again, adding all possible numbers (an insight that played an important role in the development of the computer). Knowing the rules saved you from enormous amounts of memorization, but nonetheless gave you access to a large amount of information.

另一种看待这个问题的方式是想象一下图书馆。如果你有一个小型图书馆，你几乎可以了解里面的所有内容，但一旦你的图书馆变得更大，你很快就会发现，藏书越多，就越难知道里面有什么。然而，如果你建立了一个归档系统，例如杜威十进制分类法或国会图书馆系统，你就可以通过归档系统访问书籍。归档系统的规则就像加法、减法或代数的规则一样，为你提供了获取大量信息的钥匙。一旦掌握了一般规则，就可以应用于大量的细节问题。你学习的层次越高（关于规则的规则），你就能用更少的记忆掌握越多的信息^。2

Another way to look at the problem is to think of the library. If you have a small library, you can know nearly everything in it, but once your library gets larger, you will quickly find that having more books makes it harder to know what’s in there. However, if you put in place a filing system, such as the Dewey decimal system or the Library of Congress system, you can access the books through a filing system. The rules of the filing system give you the key to great amounts of information, just as the rules of addition, subtraction, or algebra do. General rules, once learned, can be applied to large numbers of particulars. The higher you go (rules about rules about rules), the more you can know with less memorization.²

所有这些都与社会科学息息相关，因为社会科学是由规则或关系维系的。如果要形成一个统一的社会科学理论，那将是因为一些学生开始思考规则，以及各种社会科学的规则如何相互契合。如果你理解了一般概念，你就能将它们应用于各种情况。因此，未来的“统一社会科学家”不一定了解某一特定社会科学的所有事实。每个专业都将保留其特性，并可能变得更加

All this is relevant to social science because social science is held together by rules or relationships. If there is to be a unified social science theory, it will be because some student started thinking about rules and how the rules of the various social sciences can fit together. If you understand the general concepts, you can apply them in a variety of circumstances. Thus the future “unified social scientists” will not necessarily know all the facts of a particular social science. Each of the specialties will retain its identity and will likely become even

更加专业化。但随着专业化的出现，也催生了对一种新的专业化的需求，这种专业化专注于将社会科学的各个组成部分联系在一起。新的统一的社会科学家将了解各个社会科学的一般规则以及一门社会科学与其他社会科学相互作用的规则，但他们不会了解其中任何一门社会科学的所有具体事实。

more specialized. But as that specialization occurs, it creates the need for a new specialization that concentrates on tying together the various component parts of social science. The new unified social scientists will know the general rules of the individual social sciences and the rules of how one social science interacts with another, but they will not know all the specific facts of any one of them.

前述论点在教科书的开篇就抛给你，显得有些沉重，因为它要求你不仅要了解各个社会科学领域的知识，还要超越这些知识，努力理解它们的综合。超越这些知识才是学习的最终意义所在，也是学习如此具有挑战性的原因。我们很想说，我们能够引导你找到一个统一的社会科学理论，但事实上，我们所能做的只是给你一些鼓励和激励。在全面了解社会科学之后，你可以决定自己想专攻哪一门（如果有的话）；是否应该努力将它们结合起来；或者是否应该放弃所有方法，去读医学预科。

The preceding argument is a heavy one to throw at you in the first pages of a textbook because it asks you not only to know the lessons of the individual social sciences, but also to go beyond and strive for an understanding of their synthesis. Going beyond is ultimately what learning is all about and what makes it so challenging. We would like to be able to say that we can guide you to a unified social science theory, but the truth is that all we can do is give you a boost and encouragement. After surveying the social sciences, you can decide in which one, if any, you want to specialize; whether you should work toward tying them all together; or whether you should bag the whole approach and go into a pre-med program.

科学方法及其应用

The Scientific Method and its Application

科学方法是一套关于如何建立规则的规则。运用科学方法或许是研究社会科学最重要的工具，因为它不仅能让你汲取各个社会科学领域的经验教训，还能让你超越这些经验教训，努力理解它们的综合性。

The scientific method is a set of rules about how to establish rules. The use of the scientific method is perhaps the most important tool you can have in studying social science because it enables you not only to learn the lessons of the individual social sciences, but also to go beyond and strive for an understanding of their synthesis.

有利于科学探究的条件只有在社会中某些态度得到发展或容忍的情况下，科学探究才有可能。成功的科学探究不仅需要研究者的智力，还需要研究者具备某些心理态度。其中之一就是好奇心，它促使人们提出两个问题：为什么？以及如何？另一个是怀疑态度，它促使人们重新审视过去的解释并重新评估过去的证据。为了重新审视和重新评估，研究者需要客观性，这使他们能够公正地寻求真理，并尽一切努力不让个人的先入之见、偏见或欲望歪曲观察到的事实或影响对这些事实的解释。当好奇心、怀疑态度和客观性这三种态度结合在一起时，科学探究就能蓬勃发展。

Conditions Favorable to Scientific Inquiry Scientific inquiry is possible only in a society in which certain attitudes are developed or tolerated. Successful scientific investigation requires from the investigator not only intelligence but certain mental attitudes as well. One of these is curiosity, which makes people ask two questions: Why? and How? Another is skepticism, which makes people reexamine past explanations and reevaluate past evidence. To reexamine and reevaluate, investigators need objectivity, which enables them to seek impartially for the truth, to make every effort not to allow personal preconceptions, prejudices, or desires to color the observed facts or influence the interpretation of those facts. When these three attitudes—curiosity, skepticism, and objectivity—come together, scientific inquiry can flourish.

在文字出现之前的部落社会中，科学探究方法的发展面临巨大的障碍。与现代社会相比，这类社会受习俗和传统的束缚更为深重。传统的行事方式被视为唯一正确的方式。此外，任何严重偏离既定程序的行为都可能被视为对群体的威胁。

In preliterate tribal societies, the obstacles to the development of scientific methods of inquiry are very great. Such societies are much more bound by custom and tradition than are modern societies. The traditional way of doing things is regarded as the only right way. Moreover, any serious deviation from established procedures is likely to be regarded as a danger to the group.

我们不能将中世纪的欧洲归类为前文字时代或部落时代。然而，当时对传统、古代权威和宗教教义的尊崇如此强烈，以至于科学精神的成长受到阻碍。现代科学的自由发展不得不等到十字军东征、文艺复兴、伟大的航海探索和宗教改革等事件动摇了传统的束缚。

We cannot classify Europe in the Middle Ages as either preliterate or tribal. Nevertheless, respect for tradition, for ancient authorities, and for religious dictates was so strong then that the growth of a scientific spirit was stunted. The free development of modern science had to wait until such events as the Crusades, the Renaissance, the great voyages of discovery, and the Reformation had loosened the hold of tradition.

科学方法的本质现代科学基于这样一个假设：宇宙是有序的，受因果律的支配。任何给定的一组情况总是

Nature of the Scientific Method Modern science is based on the assumption that this is an orderly universe, ruled by the law of cause and effect. Any given set of circumstances always

会产生相同的结果。如果看似相同的情况却产生不同的结果，那么它们实际上并不相同；存在一些显著的差异，但却被忽略了。进一步的调查应该能够揭示这种差异究竟是什么。

produces the same result. If seemingly identical situations have different results, they were not really alike; some significant difference existed and was overlooked. Further investigation should disclose what this difference was.

科学并不能为宇宙及其现象提供终极解释。时间、空间、物质、能量——存在本身——都是奥秘，其终极本质或许永远超出人类探索的范围。但一个公认的科学理论，在某种程度上，可以被视为对科学定律的解释。

Science offers no final explanations of the universe and its phenomena. Time, space, matter, energy—existence itself—are mysteries the ultimate nature of which is probably forever beyond the grasp of the human search. But an accepted scientific theory may be regarded as an explanation, up to a certain point, of a scientific law.

科学研究很少是简单的。每个知识领域都有其独特的问题，研究人员必须始终根据所处理情况的特性调整其研究方法。在某些领域，一种非常重要的研究方法是设置和开展受控实验。

Scientific investigation is seldom simple. Each field of knowledge has its special problems, and investigators must always adjust their methods to the peculiarities of the situation they are dealing with. A method of investigation that is of great importance in some fields is the setting up and carrying out of controlled experiments.

实验方法及其局限性实验方法是一种分离因果因素的方法。它是指仅使用一个变量进行多次实验。如果实验结果不同，则该变量很可能就是原因。3^在化学、物理学和生物学中，此类受控实验在发现事实和检验假设方面发挥着重要作用。在这些科学领域，研究人员可以创造一种环境，使所有与问题相关的重要因素都能得到控制。

The Experimental Method and Its Limitations The experimental method is a method of separating out causal factors. It consists of running an experiment many times with only one variant. If the results of the experiments are different, that one variant is most likely the cause.³ In chemistry, physics, and biology, such controlled experiments play an important role in discovering facts and testing hypotheses. In these sciences, an investigator can create a situation in which all the significant factors that bear on a problem can be controlled.

然而，当科学家无法控制对解决问题至关重要的情境时，实验方法的应用就会受到限制。在社会科学领域，受控实验方法的应用较少，除非是处理涉及较小群体的某些关系，因为研究人员无法控制情境。例如，要证明或反驳“高关税带来繁荣”这一命题，一种方法是，在相当长的一段时间内对所有进入美国的商品征收非常高的关税，同时保持所有其他影响商业活动的因素不变。如果随后繁荣程度持续增长，我们就有充分的证据支持“高关税是繁荣原因”这一论点。没有任何研究人员，比如经济学家，能够控制一个国家的关税政策；即使她能够控制，在高关税生效期间，许多其他社会变革也会发生，例如罢工、新兴产业的兴起，甚至可能是战争。毫无疑问，其中一些变化对国家繁荣状况的影响将比高关税大得多，并且将使我们无法将高关税的影响与所有这些其他事件的影响区分开来。

There are, however, limits to the use of the experimental method when a scientist cannot control the situations that are significant for the solution of problems. In the social sciences, less use can be made of the method of controlled experiment, except in dealing with certain relationships that involve rather small groups, because the investigator cannot control the situations. For example, one way to prove or disprove the proposition that high tariffs bring prosperity would be to apply very heavy tariffs to all goods entering the United States for a considerable period of time, while holding constant all other factors affecting business activity. If a sustained increase in prosperity followed, we would then have substantial evidence to support the thesis that high tariffs are a cause of prosperity. No investigator, let us say an economist, can control the country’s tariff policy; and even if she could, while the high tariff was in effect many other social changes would be taking place, such as strikes, the establishment of new industries, and perhaps even wars. Some of these other changes would doubtless have much more influence on the state of national prosperity than would the high tariff and would make it impossible to separate out the effects of the high tariff from the effects of all these other events.

社会科学家感兴趣的大多数问题都涉及非常庞大的群体，通常是整个社会。受控实验无法解决此类问题。然而，当社会科学家能够通过实验室和实地实验深入了解问题时，他们至少可以部分地控制环境。例如，谷歌公司经常使用实地实验，随机改变广告的呈现方式。一个广告可能说“半价”，另一个广告可能说“五折”。虽然这些广告的含义相同，但人们的反应并不一定相同。然后，​​这些公司会分析结果，并根据最有效的呈现方式来设计未来的广告。每次你上网，你就为公司提供了进行实地实验的机会，以找出如何从你身上赚取更多利润。社会科学家也研究自然实验，即两个相似的地区或实体选择不同的政策，并且可以系统地研究不同政策的影响。通过自然实验，研究人员无法获得完美的控制，但他们可以获得一些控制。

Most problems of interest to social scientists involve very large groups of people, often society as a whole. Controlled experiments cannot be used to solve such problems. When, however, social scientists can gain insight into a problem through laboratory and field experiments, they can, at least partially, control the environment. For example, often firms on Google use field experiments, randomly varying the way an advertisement is presented to people. One ad might state “one-half off”; the other might state “50 percent off.” Although these have the same meaning, the way people respond to them is not necessarily the same. The firms then analyze the results and structure future ads to reflect the presentation that was most effective. Every time you are on the Internet, you provide opportunities for firms to conduct field experiments to figure out how to make more money off you. Social scientists also study natural experiments, which occur when two similar areas or entities choose different policies, and the effects of the different policies can be systematically Studied. With natural experiments, researchers do not get perfect control, but they get some.

此外，社会科学家使用实验室实验，让人们进入实验室，研究他们的行为，然后将该行为与其他信息联系起来

Additionally, social scientists use laboratory experiments, in which they have people come into the lab, where they study their behavior, and then relate that behavior to other information

他们能找到关于这些事情的信息。其中最著名的一个实验是斯坦福棉花糖实验，心理学家们研究了四岁儿童延迟满足的能力。他们给每个孩子一块棉花糖，并承诺如果孩子愿意等二十分钟再吃，就给他们两块。之后，他们研究了这些学生在接下来的二十年里取得的进步，发现那些能够延迟满足的学生心理适应能力更强，更可靠，成绩也比那些不能延迟满足的学生更高。

they can find about them. One of the most famous of these is known as the Stanford Marshmallow Experiment, in which psychologists studied four-year-olds’ ability to delay gratification. They gave each child a marshmallow, but promised him or her two if the child would wait twenty minutes before eating it. They then studied the progress of these students for the next twenty years, and found that those students who could delay gratification were psychologically better adjusted, more dependable persons, and received higher grades than those who could not.

未来，随着计算机技术的进一步发展，社会科学家将利用虚拟社会系统来研究政策问题。在虚拟社会系统中，由众多互动个体组成的计算机模型构建了一个虚拟系统，可以模拟现实世界中发生的事情。由于社会系统的复杂性，这种虚拟系统仍然是未来的希望，而非现实。

In the future, with further advances in computer technology, social scientists will study policy issues using virtual social systems in which a computer model of numerous interacting individuals creates a virtual system that can analog what occurs in the real world. Because of the complexity of social systems, such virtual systems remain a hope for the future, not a reality.

社会实验有时被称为实验，但除非它们有一个遵循不同路径的“对照”，从而可以作为自然实验进行研究，否则它们就不是我们所说的实验。社会实验仅仅是引入和“尝试”新的社会政策。例如，俄勒冈州对医疗保险融资的改革，或佛罗里达州对教育经费券的实验，都可以被称为社会实验。区别在于能否进行对照和能否重复实验。对照越少，重复实验的能力越弱，我们对结果的把握就越小。

Social experiments are sometimes called experiments, but unless they have a “control” that followed a different path and hence can be studied as a natural experiment, they are not what we mean by experiment. A social experiment is simply the introduction and “trying out” of new social policies. For example, Oregon’s change in the financing of health insurance or Florida’s experiments with vouchers for financing education might be called social experiments. The distinction involves the ability to have a control and to be able to replicate the experiment. The less the control, and the less the ability to repeat the experiment, the less sure we are of the results.

方法论与社会科学

Methodology and the Social Sciences

由于社会科学实验难度极大，一些人坚持认为它并非科学。除了“科学”一词本身的声望之外，我们是否将社会研究称为科学并不重要。这仅仅是一个定义问题。如果我们所说的科学仅仅指自然科学，那么社会科学就不是真正的科学。如果我们所说的科学仅仅指所谓的精密科学，那么社会科学同样不包含在内。然而，如果我们广义地使用“科学”一词，

Because it is so difficult to experiment in social science, some people have insisted that it is not science. Except for the prestige carried by the word, whether we call the study of society a science is not important. It is merely a question of definition. If we mean by science the natural sciences only, then social science is not true science. If we mean by science only the so-called exact sciences, then again social science is not included. If, however, we use the term science broadly,

如果要涵盖所有运用科学方法扩展知识的系统性尝试，那么社会科学无疑必须被纳入科学的范畴。真正重要的是，社会科学家发现了许多重要的关系，这些关系足够可靠，能够极大地增进我们对社会行为的理解，并在处理某些社会问题时提供有用的指导。

to include all systematic attempts to expand knowledge by applying the scientific method, then social science definitely must be included in the scientific family. What is really important is that social scientists have discovered many significant relationships that are sufficiently dependable to add greatly to our understanding of social behavior and to serve as useful guides in dealing with some social problems.

关于社会科学中应使用何种方法论，一直存在很多争论。著名科学哲学家托马斯·库恩将范式定义为一种科学理论以及围绕该理论的信念核心。他认为，科学进步是通过范式转换实现的。在这种转换中，科学家们会长期抵制变化，坚持旧理论，即使越来越多的证据反对它，甚至另一个理论更符合数据。然而，最终，支持新理论的证据如此之多，以至于科学家们会突然改变想法。这个过程可以比作水龙头上形成一滴水的方式。它越来越大，直到掉下来。科学中的一个很好的例子是爱因斯坦的物理学相对论，它最初曾被嘲笑，但后来被采纳，因为它与艾萨克·牛顿爵士早期的引力理论相比，与更广泛的物理现象相一致。

There has been much debate about the correct methodology to be used in social science. Thomas Kuhn, a famous philosopher of science, defined a paradigm as a scientific theory and the core of beliefs that surround it. He argued that scientific progression occurs by paradigm shifts in which, for a long time, scientists will resist change and hold on to an old theory even as evidence mounts up against it, and even when another theory better fits the data. Eventually, however, the evidence in favor of the new theory is so great that suddenly scientists shift their thinking. The process can be likened to the way a drop of water forms on a faucet. It grows larger and larger until it falls. A good example in the sciences is Einsteins relativity theory in physics, which was initially scoffed at but was later adopted because it was consistent with a wider range of physical phenomena than was the earlier gravitational theory of Sir Isaac Newton.

社会科学家就库恩的范式转换理论是否适用于社会科学进行了深入的讨论。如果适用，它就为其他竞争理论提供了合法性。如果适用，那么普遍接受的理论就可以被认为是最佳理论。这个问题从未得到解决，但我们对理论相关性的理解却有所进步。

Social scientists have discussed at great length whether Kuhn’s theory of paradigm shift is appropriate for the social sciences. If it is, it gives legitimacy to competing theories. If it is not, then the generally accepted theory can be considered the best. The issue has never been resolved, but our understanding of the relevance of theories has advanced.

另一位著名的科学哲学家伊姆雷·拉卡托斯（Imre Lakatos）扩展了库恩的论点，他认为社会科学中通常存在许多相互竞争的理论，每种理论都通过相互竞争的研究项目或研究特定问题的科学家群体得到扩展。例如，心理学中有行为主义者和弗洛伊德学派。社会学中有功能主义者、冲突理论家和互动论者。我们可以在每门社会科学中列举不同的理论。每个研究项目的支持者都会争夺研究人员。在争夺追随者方面最成功的研究人员群体最有可能发展壮大。

Imre Lakatos, another tamous philosopher of science, has extended Kuhn’s arguments by saying that in social science there are generally many competing theories, each being extended through competing research programs, or groups of scientists working on a particular problem. For example, in psychology there are the behaviorists and the Freudians. In sociology there are functionalists, conflict theorists, and interactionists. We could cite different theories within each social science. Advocates of each of the research programs compete for researchers. The group of researchers most successful in competing for followers is the one most likely to grow.

其他科学哲学家则走得更远。保罗·费耶阿本德等一些人认为，所有方法论都有局限性，正确的方法论就是没有方法论。还有一些人认为，决定科学家信仰的是社会学问题，例如什么可能促进科学家的职业发展，而不是理论的真理性。

Other philosophers of science go further. Some, like Paul Feyerabend, argue that all methodology is limiting and that the correct methodology is no methodology. Still others argue that sociological issues, such as what is likely to advance a scientist’s career, rather than the truth of a theory, determine what the scientist believes.

在本书中，我们强调各种理论之间的竞争。我们希望借此展现社会科学中争议如何在知识发展中发挥重要作用。

In this book, we emphasize the competition among various theories. By doing so, we hope to show how, in social science, controversy plays an important role in the development of our knowledge.

理解科学方法的最佳途径或许是思考一些不符合科学方法的例子。例如，占星术或命理学。这些伪科学认为，通过分析星宿的排列或某些数字的位置，人们可以发现或预测会影响自身的事件。然而，这些发现的准确性或预测的可靠性从未得到令大多数社会科学家满意的证明。即使我们可能会翻看星座运势说：“啊哈！这似乎符合我的性格或经历”，但如果我们批判性地思考这些预测，我们常常会发现，这些陈述非常宽泛，以至于它们或多或少可以适用于各种各样的事件或可能性。这并不是说社会科学务必避免这种情况。例如，经济学经常会根据大型、高度复杂的数学模型（称为计量经济模型）做出预测，而其中一些预测对于指导方向的准确性甚至不比粗略估计高。

Probably the best way to understand the scientific method is to consider a couple of examples that do not follow the scientific method. For instance, consider astrology or numerology. These pseudo studies hold that by analyzing the alignment of the stars or the position of certain numbers, individuals can discover or predict events that will affect them. However, the accuracy of the discoveries or the reliability of the predictions has never been satisfactorily demonstrated to most social scientists. Even though we might turn to our horoscopes and say, “Aha! That seems to fit my character or my experience,” if we critically consider these predictions, often we see that the statements are so broad that they can be applied more or less appropriately to a wide range of happenings or possibilities. This is not to say that the social sciences always avoid that. Economics, for instance, often comes up with predictions from large, highly sophisticated mathematical models (called econometric models), and some of these predictions are no better for steering a course than back-of-the-envelope estimates.

优秀的社会科学家通常对任何主张都持不可知论（既不相信也不怀疑）立场，直到这些主张能够被反复检验。例如，以超心理学为例，该学派认为人们可以不依赖任何传统的交流方式传递某些信息。有一个专门研究超心理学问题的专业协会，例如通过标准感官以外的方式传递思想和情感的能力，以及与死者交流的能力。大多数社会科学家仍然不相信。他们认为，迄今为止，这些理论尚未得到充分证实。优秀的社会科学家在声明这些理论尚未得到检验时，并非武断。我们社会科学家可能过于固执于我们看待世界的方式，以至于无法考虑其他方式的可能性。谁能断言我们接受为结论性的测试就是“正确”的测试，或者我们的训练没有使测试产生偏见？

A good social scientist generally takes an agnostic (not believing but also not disbelieving) position about claims until they can be tested and retested. Consider, for example, parapsychology, which argues that people can transmit certain information independently of all conventional forms of communication. There is an entire professional association devoted to studying parapsychology issues, such as the ability to transfer thoughts and feeling by means other than the standard senses, and the ability to communicate with the dead. Most social scientists remain unconvinced. They hold that, to date, the theories have not been sufficiently demonstrated. In stating that these theories have not been tested, a good social scientist is not dogmatic. It is possible that we social scientists have become so tied to our way of looking at the world that we are unable to consider the possibilities of other ways. Who is to say that the tests we accept as conclusive are the “right” tests, or that our training has not biased the tests?

然而，最终我们必须对什么是可接受的测试、什么不是可接受的测试做出一个实际的判断，而社会科学家的方法论正是这种实际判断的体现。然而，它应该被呈现为一种实际的判断，而不是一套界定真假的最终标准。正因如此，优秀的社会科学家通常对一系列他们没有时间去研究的问题保持不可知论的态度。因此，从很多方面来说，学习社会科学并理解其方法，你将获得对自身认知能力局限性的清晰认识。

Ultimately, however, we must make a working judgment about what is and what is not an acceptable test, and social scientists’ methodology is an expression of that working judgment. It should, however, be presented as a working judgment, not as a set of definitive criteria of what is true and what is false. That is why, generally, good social scientists remain agnostic over a wide range of issues that they just do not have time to investigate. Thus, in many ways, what you will get out of a study of social science and an understanding of its methods is a healthy understanding of the limitations of your powers to know.

社会科学方法的一个例子

An Example of the Social Science Method

让我们举一个运用社会科学方法的例子——约瑟夫·霍兹 (Joseph Hotz) 对青少年怀孕影响的研究。首先，他研究了所有关于青少年怀孕的著作。然后，他提出了以下假设：青少年怀孕会导致母亲们的经济和社会状况比没有怀孕的情况下更糟。为了检验这个假设，他使用了多年来追踪青少年女性生活所收集的数据。从中，他抽取了两组人——一组怀孕并生下孩子的青少年，另一组怀孕但流产的青少年。然后，他比较了她们三十五岁左右时的经济和社会地位。如果青少年怀孕导致母亲的状况恶化，那么生下孩子的青少年应该比流产的青少年状况更糟。但事实并非如此。他发现这两组人之间没有显著差异：她们都是低收入者，严重依赖社会福利，并且完成了相同年限的教育。最初的假设是错误的。青少年怀孕并没有使母亲的状况变得更糟；这只不过是一系列更大问题的症状而已。这些问题如此严重，以至于母亲是否在十几岁时生育孩子对她们的经济和社会地位几乎没有影响。

Let’s take an example of the use of the social science method—Joseph Hotz’s study of the implications of teen pregnancy. First, he studied all the writing on teen pregnancy. Then he set up the following hypothesis: Teen motherhood causes the mothers to be economically and socially worse off than they otherwise would have been. To test this hypothesis, he used data that had been collected over many years tracking the lives of teenage women. From that he extracted two groups—a set of teenagers who had become pregnant and borne the child and a set of teenagers who had become pregnant but had miscarried. He then compared their economic and social positions when they were in their mid-thirties. If teen motherhood caused the mother to be worse off, then the teens who had borne their babies should have been in a worse position than those who miscarried. They weren’t. He found no significant difference between the two groups: Both were low-income, significantly dependent on welfare benefits, and had completed the same number of years of school. The initial hypothesis was false. Teen pregnancy did not make mothers worse off; it was simply a symptom of a larger set of problems. This larger set of problems was so severe that whether mothers had borne a child in their teens made little difference to their economic and social positions.

霍茨的研究结果发表之际，政府正耗资巨大地开展反对青少年母亲的运动，他的结论在自由派和保守派中均不受欢迎。自由派不喜欢这些结论，因为他的研究表明，自由派制定的许多计划生育建议和性教育对改善这些女性的生活几乎没有帮助。保守派不喜欢这些结论，因为他的研究暗示，更实质性的要改善这些女性的生活并打破贫困的恶性循环，需要的改变不仅仅是简单地消除青少年母亲现象。但良好的社会科学方法论并非为了取悦任何人——而是为了理解社会问题。

Hotz’s findings were published as the government was conducting a costly campaign against teen motherhood, and his conclusions were unpopular with both liberals and conservatives. Liberals did not like them because his study suggested that much of the family planning advice and sex education developed by liberals was of little help in improving these women’s lives. Conservatives did not like them because his study implied that more substantive changes than simply eliminating teen motherhood were needed to improve these women’s lives and break the cycle of poverty. But good social science methodology is not about pleasing anybody—it is about understanding social issues and social problems.

尽管霍兹的实验并非完全受控，但它在社会科学领域已是最接近受控的实验了。实验选取了相似的群体进行比较，因此没有明显的理由解释为什么这两个群体会存在差异。

Although Hotz’s experiment was not fully controlled, it was as close as one could come to a controlled experiment in the social sciences. It selected similar groups to compare in such a way that no obvious reason existed as to why these two groups should differ.

其他社会科学方法

Other Social Science Methods

除了实验方法外，社会科学家还使用各种不同的方法，包括历史方法、案例方法以及比较和跨文化方法。

In addition to the experimental method, social scientists use a variety of different methods. These include the historical method, the case method, and the comparative and cross-cultural methods.

历史方法由于大多数社会发展（例如美国政府）都具有独有的特征，因此，为了尽可能全面地理解它们，社会科学家必须在很大程度上依赖于对其历史背景的研究。我们永远无法完全理解任何历史情况是如何发生的，因为我们的历史知识是有限的，而且我们越往前追溯，其原因就越复杂和不确定。然而，我们可以通过运用历史方法——追溯过去那些似乎对社会情况的形成有直接重要性的主要发展——来使历史事件和当前的社会形势变得更容易理解。为了追溯这些过去的发展，历史学家会使用许多与其他社会科学家相同的方法，例如收集出生和结婚证明并对这些数据进行分类。

The Historical Method Because most social developments—such as the government of the United States—have unique characteristics, in order to understand them as fully as possible the social scientist must rely heavily on a study of their historical background. We can never understand completely how any historical situation came to exist, because there are limits to our historical knowledge and causes become increasingly complex and uncertain as we trace them further into the past. We can, however, make both historical events and present social situations much more intelligible by using the historical method—tracing the principal past developments that seem to have been directly significant in bringing about a social situation. To trace these past developments, a historian will use many of the same methods as other social scientists, such as collecting birth and marriage certificates and classifying those data.

众所周知，历史从来不会真正重演。然而，现在和过去的情况往往有着惊人的相似之处，以至于了解过去可以让我们洞悉当前形势，有时甚至洞察未来趋势。

It has been noted that history never really repeats itself. Nevertheless, present and past situations often have such striking similarities that a knowledge of the past can give us insights into present situations and sometimes into future trends.

案例法社会研究方法论的作者们对案例法投入了大量的关注——它的特点、变化、用途、优势和局限性。这里我们只描述它的基本性质。案例法涉及对特定问题或问题情境进行详细的考察和分析。这可以是针对单个人的案例研究，例如心理学家对其来访者的研究；也可以是针对单个地区或城镇的案例研究，例如社会学家对城镇变化原因的研究；甚至可以是针对整个国家的研究，例如经济学家对不同国家进行比较的研究。

The Case Method Writers on the methodology of social research have devoted a great deal of attention to the case method—its characteristics, its variations, the uses it can serve, its advantages, and its limitations. Here we only describe its basic nature. The case method involves making a detailed examination and analysis of a particular issue or problem situation. This can involve a case study of a single person, such as that by a psychologist of his or her client; a single area or town, such as a sociologist’s study of why a town changes; or even a study of whole countries, such as an economist’s study involving comparisons of various countries.

案例研究的目的可以在于探索如何在特定问题情境中实现理想的改变：例如，找到升级或重建贫民窟的最有效方法。更常见的是，案例研究的主要目的是阐明社会中存在的许多类似情况。希望通过对一个或几个案例的理解，能够阐明其他案例，从而有助于解决它们所代表的社会问题。所选案例应具有其所代表群体的典型性。

A case study can be intended to discover how to bring about desirable changes in a particular problem situation: for example, to find the most effective ways of upgrading or rehabilitating a slum area. More often, the chief purpose of a case study is to throw light on many similar situations that exist in a society. The hope is that an understanding of one or a few cases will illuminate the others and thus aid in solving the social problems they present. The case or cases selected should be typical of the group they purport to represent.

前述要求可能会限制案例方法的实用性。假设我们想研究整个美国社会的阶级结构。显然，选择美国不同地区几个相对较小且孤立的城市作为案例会更容易。但这些案例能否真实地展现美国的整体情况值得怀疑，因为如今我们很大一部分人生活在大都市地区，那里的阶级结构可能比较小且孤立的社区复杂得多。然而，研究和详细描述这样一个地区的阶级结构可能极其困难且成本高昂，因此并不切实际。

The preceding requirement can be a limiting factor in the usefulness of the case method. Suppose we wanted to make a study of the class structure of US society as a whole. Obviously, it would be easier to select as cases for study several relatively small and isolated cities in various sections of the country. But it is questionable whether these would give us a true picture of the country as a whole, because today a great proportion of our people lives in large metropolitan areas where the class structure is likely to be much more complex than in smaller and more isolated communities. However, to study and describe in detail the class structure of such an area may be prohibitively difficult and expensive, and therefore impractical.

比较与跨文化研究方法过去，人们常常运用比较方法，希望发现人类制度发展中的演化序列，即具有普遍性的社会发展或进步模式。例如，人们有时假设政府制度的发展存在明确的阶段，并认为可以通过将处于某一发展水平的社会与处于不同发展水平的其他社会进行比较来发现这些阶段。如今，这种试图寻找适用于所有社会的社会演化模式的尝试已基本被摒弃。

The Comparative and Cross-Cultural Methods The comparative method was formerly often employed in the hope of discovering evolutionary sequences in the development of human institutions—that is, patterns of social development or progress that would be universal. For example, it was sometimes assumed that definite stages existed in the development of governmental institutions, and it was thought that these stages could be discovered by comparing a society at one level of development with some other society at a different level. Today, this attempt to find patterns of social evolution that can be applied to all societies has been largely abandoned.

然而，通过所谓的跨文化方法，不同社会之间的比较在人类学研究中仍然发挥着重要作用。这种方法旨在对多个社会的文化模式进行详细研究，以便进行比较。他们的人民以不同的方式满足类似的需求。这些研究有时会发现，即使彼此之间似乎没有直接或间接的接触，相距甚远的民族的文化特征也存在惊人的相似性。

Comparison of different societies, however, still plays an important role in anthropological studies through what is called the cross-cultural method. This method consists of making detailed stu dies of the cultural patterns of a number of societies for the purpose of comparing the different ways in which their people meet similar needs. These studies sometimes show surprising similarities in the cultural traits of widely separated peoples who appear to have had no direct or indirect contacts with one another.

比较不同社会的特征会遇到问题。有时，很难决定两个或多个社会是独立的还是应视为一个整体。或者考虑一下定义：如果我们比较不同社会中的家庭制度，我们必须对家庭进行足够广泛的定义以涵盖文化差异，但又要足够具体以使比较有意义。社会学家对家庭的定义并不总是一致。同样，如果我们比较城市工业社会中的失业率，我们必须对失业的含义达成一致。例如，在 20 世纪 80 年代初，按照美国标准计算，墨西哥的失业率约为 30%。然而，墨西哥经济学家认为这个数字毫无意义，因为墨西哥的工作习惯和文化与美国不同。他们说，被衡量为失业的大部分实际上是在家工作而不是在市场上赚钱的个人。因此，尽管他们有非市场工作，但他们被算作失业者。

Comparison of the characteristics of different societies involves problems. At times, it is difficult to decide whether two or more societies are independent or should be treated as one. Or consider definitions: If we are comparing the family institution in different societies, we must define family broadly enough to cover cultural variations, yet specifically enough to make comparisons meaningful. Sociologists do not always agree on just what a family is. Again, if we are comparing unemployment in urban-industrial societies, we must agree on what we mean by unemployment. For example, in the early 1980s, the unemployment rate in Mexico, computed by US standards, was approximately 30 percent. Mexican economists, however, argued that this figure was meaningless because Mexican work habits and culture were different from those in the United States. Much of what was measured as unemployment, they said, was actually individuals working at home and not earning money in the marketplace. Thus, although they had nonmarket jobs, they had been counted as unemployed.

社会科学中的受过教育的常识

Educated Common Sense in the Social Sciences

进行任何研究时，或许要记住的最重要的一课就是，你应该运用所谓的“有根据的常识”。要明白常识和“有根据的常识”之间的区别，请思考这个问题：地球绕着太阳转，还是太阳绕着地球转？未经教育的常识告诉我们，太阳绕着地球转，而这个常识性结论在整个中世纪逐渐融入社会以及社会对自身的看法。不相信的话就是异端邪说。1540 年，哥白尼试图将这种常识与古希腊人对天体的观察结果相吻合。在进行这项任务的过程中，他发现，只有假设地球绕着太阳转，数据才能与理论很好地吻合。他的常识是一种“有根据的常识”——基于观察和现有最佳信息的理性思考。正是这种“有根据的常识”最终导致了科学方法的出现。由于专业化使我们关注的问题越来越狭窄，我们必须牢记，科学分析使我们只关注问题的一部分，我们还必须运用我们所学到的常识来合理地解释结果。

Probably the most important lesson to remember when conducting any research is that you should use what might be called an educated common sense. To see the difference between common sense and educated common sense, consider the problem: Does the earth circle the sun or does the sun circle the earth? Uneducated common sense tells us that the sun circles the earth, and that common sense conclusion became built into society and society’s view of itself throughout the Middle Ages. To believe otherwise was heresy. In 1540, Copernicus tried to fit that common sense view with observations that classical Greeks had made of the heavens. As he went about this task, he discovered that he could get a good fit of the data with the theory only if he assumed the earth moved around the sun. His was an educated common sense— rational thought based on observation and the best information available. It was that kind of educated common sense that ultimately led to the scientific method. As specialization makes us focus on narrower and narrower issues, it is important to keep in the back of our minds that scientific analysis has made us look at only part of the problem and that we must also use our educated common sense to interpret the results reasonably.

统计数据的使用

The Use of Statistics

只要有可能，社会科学家就会依赖定量数据（可以简化为数字的数据），但定量数据通常难以获得，因此社会科学家必须依赖定性数据，例如访谈或文献中信息的启发式摘要。使用定性数据时，从数据中得出具体推论要困难得多，因为发现的“事实”取决于如何解释定性数据。部分克服此类“解释问题”的一种方法是“德尔菲法”，即让该领域的另一位专家审查你的解释，然后你根据自己的判断修改解释，并解释你接受或拒绝建议修改的理由。另一种方法是将定性数据转化为定量数据，为任何缺失的定量数据创建“代理”（替代），尽管这通常只是隐藏了解释问题，而不是消除它们。

Whenever possible, social scientists rely on quantitative data—data that can be reduced to numbers—but often quantitative data are not available, so social scientists must rely on qualitative data such as interviews or heuristic summaries of information in the literature. When using qualitative data, it is much more difficult to draw specific inferences from the data, because the “facts” one finds depend on how one interprets the qualitative data. One way to partially overcome such “interpretive problems” is the “Delphi method” in which another specialist in the field reviews your interpretation and then you modify your interpretation in response if you see fit, explaining your reasons for accepting or rejecting the suggested modifications. Another way is to translate the qualitative data into quantitative data, creating “proxies” (stand-ins) for any missing quantitative data, although that often simply hides the interpretative issues rather than eliminating them.

如果可以获得定量数据，社会科学家就会依靠统计分析——以数字形式收集并分类的信息——来获取理解社会关系和过程所需的信息。统计数据无法让我们直接衡量诸如良好公民意识、幸福感或福利等基本社会价值观，但它们有助于衡量构成社会生活基础的其他因素，例如一个国家的人口规模，或收入低于我们设定的体面健康生活最低标准的家庭数量。统计关系也能让我们深入了解社会问题。如果我们发现，青少年拘留中心中来自破碎家庭的男性比例远高于总体人口中来自破碎家庭的男性比例，这表明破碎家庭可能是导致青少年犯罪的一个重要因素。但对统计数据的解读必须始终谨慎，因为很容易从中得出它们无法佐证的结论。此外，有时我们也可能操纵统计数据，使它们看起来像是我们想要的那样。

If quantitative data are available, social scientists rely on statistical analysis—information in numerical form that has been assembled and classified—to provide the social scientist with the information needed to understand social relationships and processes. Statistics do not enable us to measure directly such basic social values as good citizenship, happiness, or welfare, but they are useful in measuring other factors that underlie social life, such as the size of the population of a country, or the number of families whose incomes fall below some level that we set as the minimum for decent and healthful living. Statistical relationships also give us insights into social problems. If we find that the proportion of males in juvenile detention centers who come from broken homes is substantially greater than the proportion of males in the population at large who come from such homes, this suggests that broken homes may be an important factor contributing to juvenile delinquency. But statistics must always be interpreted with care, for it can be easy to read into them conclusions they do not justify. Also, it is sometimes possible to manipulate them so that they appear to show what we want them to show.

虽然统计数据衡量的是社会活动的结果并揭示趋势，但它们还有其他实用功能：检验理论和发现关系。例如，相关性是指两组数据之间的关系。数据组之间的高度正相关性意味着，如果一组数据中的某个元素上升，那么另一组数据中对应的元素也可能上升。其他统计数据则决定了我们对某种关系的确定程度。我们不讨论这些统计数据，因为社会科学入门课程并非学习这些统计数据的地方，但它可以让你了解此类检验关系的技术的存在，并且它们或许值得你在未来某个时候学习。

Although statistics measure the results of social activity and highlight trends, they have other useful functions: testing theories and discovering relationships. For example, correlation is the relationship between two sets of data. A high positive correlation between sets of data means that if an element in one set rises, its corresponding element in the other set is also likely to rise. Other statistics determine how sure we are of a relationship. We do not discuss these statistics because an introductory social science course is not the place to learn them, but it is the place to learn that such techniques of testing relationships exist, and they may be worth your while to study at some point in the future.

如果我们要使用统计数据，就必须有数据。数据是描述事件、发生或情况的原始数字。社会科学家的数据来自于对某一特定事件的所有发生次数的测量和统计。例如，我们可能会发现，“2022 年发生了x起谋杀案，y 起自杀案。”获取数据的一种方法是进行调查，即通过问卷或访谈从个人或机构收集数据的方法。例如，我们可以进行一项调查，在调查中，选定的人会就他们的收入、他们对某些问题的看法或他们打算投票给的政治候选人等问题进行询问或民意调查。统计数据可以告诉我们，必须调查群体中多大的一部分人，我们才能合理地确定结果将反映整个群体的观点。这类技术在盖洛普或哈里斯民意调查等调查中被广泛使用。

If we are going to use statistics, we must have data. Data are the raw numbers describing an event, occurrence, or situation. Social scientists’ data come from measuring and counting all occurrences of a particular happening. For example, we might find, “In 2022, there were x number of murders and y number of suicides.” One way to get data is to conduct a survey, a method whereby data are collected from individuals or institutions by means of questionnaires or interviews. For instance, we might conduct a survey in which selected people are questioned or polled on such matters as their incomes, their beliefs on certain issues, or the political candidate for whom they intend to vote. Statistics can tell us how large a portion of a group must be surveyed before we can be reasona bly sure that the results will reflect the views of the entire group. Such techniques are used extensively in surveys such as the Gallup or Harris public opinion polls.

计算机极大地促进了统计数据的应用，并因此大大扩展了其应用范围。计算机使得快速、分析地记录、整理和重新整理海量信息成为可能。如今，任何拥有计算机或其他互联网接入方式的人都可以获取海量数据和其他资源。

The use of statistics has been greatly facilitated, and therefore greatly expanded, by the computer. The computer has made it possible to record, arrange, and rearrange voluminous information quickly and analytically. Today, enormous amounts of data and other resources are available to anyone with a computer or other access to the Internet.

随着社会数据的扩展和计算能力的大幅提升，社会科学家越来越有可能仅在数据中寻找关系，而不是受理论的指导。社会科学家使用高度复杂的统计技术分析数据，寻找模式。在找到模式后，他们会将模式与理论进行匹配。例如，社会科学家史蒂芬·莱维特和约翰·多诺霍搜索了数据，发现美国堕胎权法案的通过与后期犯罪率的下降之间存在关联。基于这一证据，他们认为，由于堕胎减少了不想要的孩子的数量，那些出生的孩子会得到更多的指导，并且使堕胎合法化的法律，而不是执法的任何变化或入狱囚犯数量的增加，才是美国在 20 世纪 90 年代犯罪率下降的主要原因。

With the expansion of social data and the large increase in computing power, it is increasingly possible for social scientists to look for relationships in the data alone, rather than to be guided in that search by theories. Using highly sophisticated statistical techniques, social scientists analyze data, looking for patterns. After they find a pattern, they fit that pattern to a theory. For example, social scientists Stephen Levitt and John Donohue searched the data and found a relationship between the passage of the abortion rights law in the United States and a decrease in crime in later periods. Based on this evidence, they argued that because abortion reduced the number of unwanted children, those children who were born had more guidance, and that it was the law making abortion legal, not any change in law enforcement or increase in the number of inmates jailed, that was mostly responsible for the decrease in crime rates that the United States experienced in the 1990s.

社会科学家在做出此类断言时应格外小心，不要将相关性（两个变量的同时变动）与因果关系（一个变量的变化会导致另一个变量的变化）混为一谈。以下示例可以看出其中的区别。当预计会下雨时，会有更多人带伞，因此雨伞的使用和下雨是相关的。但人们带伞这一事实并不会导致下雨，或者说我们大多数人是这么认为的。重要的是要记住，统计数据并不能提供所有答案。例如，在冠状病毒大流行中，科学家试图根据科学来指导政策，但由于这样做所需的数据在很大程度上是无法获得的，他们提供的科学指导是有限的。通常，我们根本没有提供无可争辩的指导所需的数据。

Whenever making such claims, social scientists should be very careful not to contuse correlation—the simultaneous movement of two variables—with causation—in which change in one variable brings about change in the other variable. The difference can be seen in the following example. When it is expected to rain, more people carry umbrellas, so umbrella usage and rain are correlated. But the fact that people carry umbrellas does not cause it to rain, or so most of us believe. It is important to remember that statistics don’t provide all the answers. For example, in the coronavirus pandemic, scientists attempted to guide policy based on science, but because the data necessary to do so were in large part unavailable, the scientific guidance they provided was limited. Often, we simply don’t have the data needed for indisputable guidance.

跨学科方法

The Interdisciplinary Approach

现代工业社会及其问题日益复杂，由于如今没有人能够精通所有社会科学，因此人们越来越重视采用跨学科方法解决许多社会问题。跨学科方法意味着一组具有不同专业的社会科学家将共同研究某个特定问题，但并非小组中的任何一个人都能完全理解该问题的所有方面。对于某些问题，例如与污染相关的问题，可能需要聘请物理学家、地质学家和工程师。但在应对所有这些问题时，对受过良好教育、对问题和相互关系有广泛了解的人的需求——他们理解统一的社会科学的必要性——正变得越来越明显。

Modern industrial societies and their problems are becoming increasingly complex, and because no one person today can master all the social sciences, growing emphasis is placed on the interdisciplinary approach to many social problems. Tire interdisciplinary approach means that a group of social scientists with different specialties will work together on a particular problem, not all aspects of which any one of the group fully understands. For some problems, such as those surrounding pollution, it may be necessary to call in, say, a physical scientist, a geologist, and an engineer. But in facing all of these problems, the need for educated people who have a broad sense of problems and interrelationships—who understand the need for a unified social science—is becoming more and more evident.

虽然很少有社会关系能够归结为精确不变的规律，但在条件非常相似的情况下，人类在大型群体中的行为却非常相似。因此，我们有理由相信，通过系统的研究，我们能够极大地加深我们对人类社会的本质和发展的理解，并希望跨学科方法本身所培养的态度以及它所引导我们的知识最终能够导致不同群体和国家之间更大的宽容与合作。

Though few social relationships can be reduced to exact and invariable laws, human beings in large groups everywhere show great likenesses of behavior when conditions are really similar. Thus, there is reason to believe that we can, through systematic study and research, greatly increase our understanding of the nature and development of human societies, and to hope that the attitudes fostered by the interdisciplinary approach itself and the knowledge to which it leads us can ultimately result in greater tolerance and cooperation among diverse groups and among nations.

公正的旁观者和无知之幕

The impartial Spectator and the Veil of ignorance

正如我之前所讨论的，要从理解社会系统（社会科学作为一门科学的目标）转向指导社会政策，社会科学家需要在分析中融入价值观——不是他或她自己的价值观，而是他所建议的群体或个人的价值观。例如，在为社会提供建议时，人们会运用“社会目标”，并探索如何以符合社会价值观的方式实现这些目标。科学并不能决定这些价值观或目标，道德哲学才是。我们将继续在政策讨论中运用公正的旁观者工具以及相关的“无知之幕”。例如，对许多人来说，税收收入的大部分应该来自富人，这似乎是显而易见的。但从一个把所有时间都花在工作上，而其他人则在玩乐的富人的角度来看，她会如何看待自己缴纳更多的税款？大多数人会希望在决定谁应该纳税以及什么才是公平的纳税方式时，给予她可能的观点——她缴纳更多的税款是不合适的——一定的权重。

As I discussed earlier, to move from an understanding of the social system—the goal of social science as a science—to guidance on social policy, social scientists need to add values to the analysis—not his or her values, but the values of the group or person he is advising. For example, in advising a society, one uses “society’s goals” and explores how to achieve those goals in a way that is consistent with society’s values. Science does not determine those values or goals, moral philosophy does. Tire impartial spectator tool, and the related veil of ignorance, are tools that we will be continually reaching back to in our policy discussions. For example, to many it seems obvious that most tax revenue should come from the rich. But how about from the perspective of a rich person who spent all her time working, while others played? What will she think of her paying more? Most will want to give her likely view—that it would be improper for her to pay more in tax—some weight in the decision of who should pay taxes, and what is fair.

在鼓励为天堂而争论的环境中公开、诚实地讨论这些问题，是就社会目标达成一致的唯一途径，这就是为什么这种讨论是社会政策的必要组成部分。

Discussing such issues openly and honestly in an environment that encourages argumentation for the sake of heaven is about the only way to come to an agreement on what is meant by social goals, which is why that discussion is a necessary part of social policy.

价值观、术语和修辞

Values, Terminology, and Rhetoric

本章以爱因斯坦的一句话开篇：“理论应该尽可能简单，但不应过于简单。” 同样的话也适用于思想及其表达。不幸的是，专家们总是倾向于使用一些并不简单的术语，这些术语往往会使问题变得模糊，而不是清晰。许多社会科学教师曾写信给我们介绍这本书（这些教师在写信的过程中，也扮演了

This chapter began with a quotation from Albert Einstein, who said, “theories should be as simple as possible, but not more so.” The same thing could be said about ideas and the expression of those ideas. Unfortunately, specialists have an incentive to develop a terminology that is anything but simple and that often obscures rather than clarifies. One of the many social science teachers who has written us about this book (and in doing so, these teachers have played

在其发展中扮演重要角色）描述了她参加的一次历史会议，会上“我们受到了如此好的款待，

an important role in its development) described a history conference she attended where “we were treated to such goodies” as

虽然她在转录会议记录时可能略显矫揉造作，但她的观点很有道理。她当时正在参加一个关于她专业的会议，但她却听不懂他们在说什么。这种情况经常发生，不仅发生在学生身上，也发生在老师身上。虽然许多专家的发言中可能蕴含着宝贵的观点，但如果我们无法理解，或者不得不花费数小时翻译，就无法从中获益。

Although she may have used a bit of literary license in transcribing the conference proceedings, her point is well taken. She was attending a conference on her specialty; yet she did not understand what was being said. It happens all the time, not only to students, but to teachers as well. Although there may be valuable ideas in what many specialists have to say, we can’t profit from them if we can’t understand them, or if we must spend hours translating them.

CW·米尔斯在其精彩著作《社会学的想象力》中明确阐述了这一点。他认为，在许多社会科学领域，“高级理论”充斥着各种术语。例如，他解读了社会学家塔尔科特·帕森斯的术语：他将其精简了80%到90%，同时使其更易于理解。米尔斯并非在说帕森斯的洞见不够深刻；相反，米尔斯认为帕森斯是一位才华横溢的社会学家。只是帕森斯的语言掩盖了他精辟的见解。

In his wonderful book The Sociological Imagination, C. W. Mills made precisely this point. He argued that in many social sciences, “high theory” is top-heavy with jargon. As an example, he interpreted sociologist Talcott Parsons’s terminology: He reduced it by 80 to 90 percent and at the same time made it more intelligible. Mills was not making the point that Parsons’s insights were not good ones; to the contrary, Mills believed that Parsons was a brilliant sociologist. But Parsons’s language obscured his brilliant ideas.

语言的另一个特点是它体现了价值判断，并保留了看待问题的方式。不可能做到完全客观；套用爱因斯坦的话来说，目标是尽可能客观，但不能过于客观。优秀的社会科学家认识到客观性的局限性，并始终乐于用不同的表达方式和新的视角来应对现实。

Another characteristic or language is that it embodies value judgments and preserves ways of looking at problems. There is no way to be completely objective; to paraphrase Einstein, the goal is to be as objective as possible but not more so. A good social scientist recognizes the limits of objectivity and is always open to dealing with reality by alternative modes of expression and new ways of looking at issues.

一般问题

General Questions

1. 什么是科学知识？它与“无意识”获得的知识有何不同？
2. What is scientific knowledge? How does it differ from knowledge acquired “unconsciously”?
3. 实践智慧与科学知识之间有何关系？
4. What is the relationship between phronesis and scientific knowledge?
5. 公正的旁观者工具是什么？为什么它对社会科学家很重要？
6. What is the impartial spectator tool, and why is it important for social scientists?
7. 为天辩证与其他类型的辩证有何区别？
8. What distinguishes argumentation for the sake of heaven from other types of argumentation?
9. 列出主要的社会科学并定义每个社会科学所涉及的领域。
10. Name the principal social sciences and define the field with which each deals.
11. 为什么在原始社会乃至中世纪进行科学研究会如此困难？
12. Why would it have been difficult to carry on scientific investigation in primitive societies or even in the Middle Ages?
13. 为什么社会科学政策比自然科学政策更难？
14. Why is social science policy more difficult than natural science policy?
15. 竞争性研究项目有什么优势吗？
16. Are there any advantages to having competing research programs?
17. 为什么社会科学领域很难制定精确的规律？
18. Why is it difficult to formulate precise laws in the field of social science?
19. 社会科学在什么意义上是科学的？
20. In what sense is social science scientific?
21. 为什么用实验方法研究社会问题常常是不可能的？
22. Why is it often impossible to study social problems by means of the experimental method?
23. 解释社会科学问题与精确自然科学问题的不同之处。
24. Explain the ways in which the problems of social science differ from those of the exact natural sciences.
25. 跨学科方法对于研究许多社会问题有哪些优势？
26. What are the advantages of the interdisciplinary approach to the study of many social problems?
27. 社会科学已经被分解成各个专业，用一个统一的理论把它们重新整合起来，为什么会是一个问题呢？
28. Social science has been broken down into specialties. Why is it a problem to put them back together through a unified theory?
29. 你认为十年后哪些新的社会科学领域会变得重要？为什么你认为如此？
30. What new social science fields do you think will be important ten years from now? Why do you think sot

互联网问题

Internet Questions

1. 布莱恩·爱泼斯坦在他的 Ted Talk ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLbEKpL-5Z0 ) 中指出，科学家会提出两类问题：关于“它是什么”的问题，以及“它是如何运作的”的问题。他认为社会科学家没有提出哪一类问题？
2. In his Ted Talk (www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLbEKpL-5Z0), Brian Epstein argues that there are two types of questions that scientists ask: what is it questions, and how does it work questions. Which type does he believe that social scientists are not asking?
3. www.sciencebuddies.org/science-fairprojects/engineering-design-process/engineeringdesign-compare-scientific-method网站区分了科学方法和工程方法。这两种方法有何不同？
4. The website www.sciencebuddies.org/science-fairprojects/engineering-design-process/engineeringdesign-compare-scientific-method distinguishes the scientific method from the engineering method. How do the methods differ?
5. 前往维基百科的社会门户网站（https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portal:Social_sciences），选择地理类别的分支。这里列出了多少种不同的地理类型？
6. Go to the society portal of Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portal:Social_sciences) and choose the branches of geography category. How many different types of geography are listed?
7. 请访问www.alcoholscreening.org参与关于饮酒的调查。完成调查后，请查看根据你的回答给出的反馈。这项调查的结果有什么用途？
8. Take the survey about alcohol use at www.alcoholscreening.org. After taking the survey, look at the feedback you are given based on your answers. What can the results for this survey be used for?
9. 在史蒂文·列维特（Steven Levitt）为他的堕胎研究辩护时（http://freakonomics.com/2005/05/15/abortionand-crime-who-should-you-believe/），犯罪率上升的替代解释是什么？批评者用来解释犯罪率下降的替代论据是什么？列维特同意这个替代论据吗？
10. In Steven Levitt’s defense of his abortion study, (http://freakonomics.com/2005/05/15/abortionand-crime-who-should-you-believe/) what was one of the alternative suggestions for the increase in crime? What was the alternative argument that critics use to explain why the crime rate has decreased? Did Levitt agree with the alternative argument?

值得探索的书籍

Books to Explore

• 格雷格·伊斯特布鲁克，《事实比看上去更好：恐惧时代的乐观理由》，纽约：阿歇特图书，2018 年。
• Easterbrook, Greg, It’s Better Than It Looks: Reasons for Optimism in an Age of Fear, New York: Hachette Books, 2018.
• 布莱恩·格林，《宇宙的结构》，纽约：克诺夫出版社，2004 年。
• Greene, Brian, The Fabric of the Cosmos, New York: Knopf, 2004.
• 赫克特，詹妮弗·迈克尔，《怀疑：历史：伟大的怀疑者及其创新遗产》，加利福尼亚州旧金山：哈珀出版社，2004 年。
• Hecht, Jennifer Michael, Doubt: A History: Tlte Great Doubters and Their Legacy of Innovation, San Francisco, CA: Harper, 2004.
• 米尔斯，C.赖特，《社会学的想象力》，纽约：牛津大学出版社，1959 年。
• Mills, C. Wright, The Sociological Imagination, New York: Oxford University Press, 1959.
• 平克，史蒂文，《当下的启蒙：理性、科学、人文主义和进步的案例》，纽约：企鹅兰登书屋，2018 年。
• Pinker, Steven, Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism and Progress, New York: Penguin Random House, 2018.
• 雷普切克，杰克，《哥白尼的秘密：科学革命如何开始》，纽约：西蒙与舒斯特出版社，2007 年。
• Repcheck, Jack, Copernicus’ Secret: How the Scientific Revolution Began, New York: Simon & Schuster, 2007.
• Salganik, Matthew J.，《点点滴滴：数字时代的社会研究》，新泽西州普林斯顿：普林斯顿大学出版社，2017 年。
• Salganik, Matthew J., Bit by Bit: Social Research in the Digital Age, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2017.
• 蒂莉，查尔斯，《为什么》，新泽西州普林斯顿：普林斯顿大学出版社，2006 年。
• Tilly, Charles, Why, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2006.
• Wilson, Edward O.，《一致性：知识的统一》，纽约：克诺夫出版社，1998 年。
• Wilson, Edward O., Consilience: The Unity of Knowledge, New York: Knopf, 1998.

值得探索的网站

Internet Sites to Explore

• “ http://www.americananthro.org/AdvanceYourCareer/Content.aspx?ItemNumber=2150 ” 美国人类学协会。
• “http://www.americananthro.org/AdvanceYourCareer/Content.aspx?ItemNumber=2150” American Anthropology Association.
• “ http://psychology.oxfordre.com/ ” 牛津心理学研究百科全书。
• “http://psychology.oxfordre.com/” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Psychology.
• “ http://www.politicalresources.net/ ” 互联网上的政治资源。
• “http://www.politicalresources.net/” Political Resources on the Internet.
• “ http://www.socioweb.com/ ” 互联网上的社会学资源。
• “http://www.socioweb.com/” Sociological Resources on the Internet.
• “ https://www.frbatlanta.org/education/publications/extracredit/2012/spring/i-want-to-study-economics-butwhatdo-economists-do.aspx ” 经济学家做什么？
• “https://www.frbatlanta.org/education/publications/extracredit/2012/spring/i-want-to-study-economics-butwhatdo-economists-do.aspx” What Do Economists Do?
• “ www.americananthro.org/AdvanceYourCareer/Content.aspx?ItemNumber=2150 ” 美国人类学协会。
• “www.americananthro.org/AdvanceYourCareer/Content.aspx?ItemNumber=2150” American Anthropology Association.
• “ http://psychology.oxfordre.com/ ” 牛津研究。
• “http://psychology.oxfordre.com/” Oxford Research.

一些重要术语

Some Important Terms

• 启蒙（22）
• Enlightenment (22)
• 中世纪 (21)
• Middle Ages (21)
• 复兴 (21)
• Renaissance (21)

达尔文与进化论

Darwin and the Theory of Evolution

广义上的“进化”指任何渐进式变化的过程。因此，人们可以谈论小说、艺术或宗教的进化。但当不加限定地使用时，“进化”通常指有机进化，或指认为当今所有复杂生命形式都源自很久以前存在的早期生命形式，并且它们不断进化以适应不断变化的环境的理论。进化论由英国生物学家查尔斯·达尔文推广，他毕生致力于系统地寻找证据来支持进化的概念，并解释自然选择，他认为自然选择是进化得以完成的机制。

Evolution in its broadest sense refers to any process of progressive change. Thus, one may speak of the evolution of the novel, of art, or of religion. But when used without qualification, evolution ordinarily means organic evolution, or the theory that all the complex life forms of today have descended from earlier ones that existed long ago, and that they are continually evolving to adapt to their changing surroundings. The theory of evolution was popularized by the English biologist Charles Darwin, who devoted his life to systematically finding evidence to support the concept of evolution and to explaining natural selection, which he believed was the mechanism by which evolution was accomplished.

达尔文以博物学家的身份，随英国测量探险队乘坐贝格尔号进行了为期五年的航行（1831-1836）。在此期间，他获得了难得的机会研究种类繁多的动植物。他发现的生物体之间存在着相似之处和差异性，以及从简单到复杂的生命形式中显而易见的渐进步骤，令他感到困惑。最终，他发展了自然选择理论来解释这些关系。他发表这些结论的第一部重要著作是《物种起源》（1859年）。后来，在另一部著名著作《人类的由来》中，他专门探讨了人类的进化。

Darwin, in the capacity of a naturalist, made a five-year voyage with a British surveying expedition on the ship Beagle (1831-1836). During this time, he had unusual opportunities to study a great variety of plant and animal life. He was puzzled by the similarities and differences he found and by the progressive steps that often seemed evident in going from the simpler to the more complex forms of life. Ultimately, he developed his theory of natural selection to explain these relationships. The first major work in which he presented his conclusions was On the Origin of Species (1859). Later, in another famous book, The Descent of Man, he dealt specifically with the evolution of the human race.

虽然达尔文在很大程度上促成了进化论被科学家广泛接受，但他既不是第一个提出这一观点的人，也不是第一个对人类与某些动物在体貌上惊人的相似性印象深刻的人。早在公元前四世纪，亚里士多德就相信复杂生物是由简单生物逐渐进化而来的；而在达尔文之前的一代，法国动物学家JB拉马克发表了进化论。尽管该理论存在缺陷，但仍包含许多深刻见解。此外，在达尔文之前一百年，伟大的瑞典博物学家卡尔·林奈（1707-1778）根据物种体貌特征的相似性对物种进行了分类。他由此创造了“灵长类动物”一词——包括人类、猿和猴在内的一类动物——其突出特征是更大更复杂的大脑、更高的智力以及适合抓握的手脚。林奈在研究中，无法忽视这三种生物之间的相似之处。

Though Darwin was largely responsible for the widespread acceptance by scientists of the concept of evolution, he was neither the first to suggest the idea nor the first to be impressed by the remarkable physical similarity of human beings to certain animals. As far back as the fourth century BC, Aristotle believed in the gradual development of complex organisms from simpler ones, and a generation before Darwin, the French zoologist J. B. Lamarck had published a theory of evolution. Although flawed, it had many insights. Also, a hundred years before Darwin, the great Swedish naturalist Carolus Linnaeus (1707-1778) organized the various species by similarity of their physical attributes. In doing so, he invented the term primates—a group of animals including human beings, apes, and monkeys— whose outstanding characteristics are their larger, complex brains, high intelligence, and hands and feet adapted for grasping. In his studies, Linnaeus could not overlook the resemblances among these three kinds of creatures.

自然选择达尔文的进化论概念部分基于自然选择，即认为不同物种中，拥有更有利于生存条件的特征的个体更有可能生存下来，并将其特征遗传给后代。达尔文认为，每个物种的特征都由这些个体的出现所决定；因此，进化的方向很大程度上取决于“适者生存”。

Natural Selection Darwin’s concept of evolution was based in part on natural selection, the proposition that individual members of the various species that have characteristics more favorable for meeting the conditions of life are more likely to survive and pass on their characteristics to future generations. Darwin believed that every species is characterized by the appearance of such individuals; thus, the direction that evolution takes is largely determined by “the survival of the fittest.”

遗传学研究物种和个体的遗传特征如何以生物学方式传递给后代。进化发生的确切过程尚不清楚，但人们普遍认为遗传学发挥着重要作用。

Genetics studies how the hereditary characteristics of species and individuals are transmitted biologically to their offspring. The precise process of how evolution occurs is still unsettled, but it generally is believed that genetics plays an important role.

遗传学的奠基性研究是由格雷戈尔·孟德尔在19世纪末完成的。1^他发现动植物具有他所谓的遗传因子，也就是现在的基因。他将其定义为细胞内能够一代又一代地保留其原始特征的独立单位。由于这种保留，这些基因决定了后代的特征。因此，进化论的研究与遗传学的研究密切相关。

The foundation work in genetics was done by Gregor Mendel in the late nineteenth century.¹ He discovered that plants and animals have what he called inheritance factors, now known as genes, which he defined as discrete units within cells that retain their original character for generation after generation. Because of this retention, these genes determine the characteristics of future generations. Thus, the study of evolution is closely connected to the study of genetics.

基因突变：遗传学解释了我们自身的存在方式，但并未解释我们为何以及如何改变。改变的过程被称为基因突变：随机的基因变化导致新的特征。在基因突变中，后代的特征可能与其父母截然不同。虽然我们尚不完全了解这些突变发生的原因，但我们知道，如果由此产生的后代存活下来，它们的新特征可以遗传给后代。

Mutation Genetics explains the way we are, but it does not explain why and how we change. That occurs through a process called mutation: random genetic changes that lead to new characteristics. In mutation, an offspring may have quite different characteristics from those of its parents. Although we do not completely understand why these mutations occur, we do know that if the resulting offspring survive, their new characteristics can be passed on to future generations.

突变是随机的。它们似乎是意外，是物种繁衍过程中的部分失败。我们也知道，暴露于某些化学物质或辐射会增加突变的发生率。大多数突变是中性的，但有些是致命的，有些则对后代有益。有益的突变使进化成为可能。在漫长的岁月中，进化可以带来动植物物种性状的巨大变化，在此过程中，物种的结构和生物功能往往会变得更加复杂。

Mutations are random. They seem to be accidents, partial failures of the process by which a species is able to reproduce its kind. We also know that the incidence of mutations is increased by exposure to certain chemicals or types of radiation. Most mutations are neutral, but some are fatal and some are beneficial to the offspring. Beneficial mutations make evolution possible. Over long periods of time, evolution can bring about great changes in the character of a plant or animal species, and in the process the structure and biological functioning of the species often become much more complex.

物种变异的例子似乎源于基因突变和自然选择（适者生存）的作用，这并不难找到。英国的胡椒蛾就是一个被详细研究的案例。这种蛾子大部分时间都附着在树上，是一些鸟类最爱的食物。直到19世纪中叶，博物学家采集标本时发现的所有胡椒蛾似乎都是浅色的。由于树皮通常较浅，且常覆盖着地衣，这起到了保护作用，使鸟类难以发现它们。但工业革命进行一段时间后，英国中部一些地区落下了太多的烟尘，导致树干和树枝颜色变深。这使得深色蛾子比浅色蛾子更难被发现，因此深色蛾子的平均寿命更长，繁殖的后代也更多。由于飞蛾在相对较短的时间内会经历很多代，在英国一些工业化程度较高的地区，自然选择几乎完全用深色飞蛾取代了浅色飞蛾。

Examples of changes in a species that seem to be the result of gene mutations and the operation of natural selection (survival of the fittest) are not difficult to find. The peppered moth in Great Britain is a case that has been studied in detail. This moth spends much of its time clinging to trees and is a favorite food of some birds. Until the middle of the nineteenth century, all peppered moths found by naturalists who collected specimens seem to have been light in color. Because the bark of the trees was usually light and often lichen-covered, this served as protection by making it difficult for the birds to see them. But after the Industrial Revolution had been under way for some time, so much soot fell in some areas of central Britain that the tree trunks and branches became darker. This made dark moths harder to see than light ones, and therefore the dark moths lived longer on average and produced more progeny. Because moths go through a great many generations in a relatively short period of time, in some of the more highly industrialized areas of Britain, natural selection almost completely replaced the light peppered moths with the dark ones.

基因含有两个等位基因，分别来自父母双方，影响特定的性状。在有性生殖的生物中，等位基因将性状从父母遗传给后代。显性等位基因控制遗传给后代的性状。隐性等位基因不会遗传其性状，除非两个等位基因都是隐性的。如果两个隐性等位基因配对，它们将决定受影响的性状。胡椒蛾是自然选择运作的一个相对简单的例子。已知这些蛾的颜色是由一个显性等位基因，或一对控制深色的显性等位基因和一对控制浅色的隐性等位基因决定的。

Genes contain two alleles, one from each parent, that affect particular characteristics. In sexually reproducing organisms, the alleles transmit characteristics from the parents to the off-spring. A dominant allele controls the characteristic that is transmitted to offspring. A recessive allele will not transmit its characteristics unless both alleles in the pair are recessive. If two recessive alleles are paired, they will determine the characteristic affected. The peppered moth presents a relatively simple example of the operation of natural selection. The color of these moths is known to result from a dominant allele, or a pair of dominant alleles for dark color, and a pair of recessive alleles for light color.

人类的特征同样源于显性和隐性等位基因的组合。就眼睛颜色而言，棕色眼睛为显性，蓝色眼睛为隐性。一个人必须拥有两个隐性等位基因才能表现出隐性特征；否则，显性特征占主导地位。

Human characteristics result from this same combination of dominant and recessive alleles. In the case of eye color, brown eyes are dominant and blue eyes are recessive. A person must have two recessive alleles to have the recessive characteristics; otherwise, the dominant characteristics prevail.

最早的人类，或者他们的类人祖先，很可能是在热带地区进化而来的，在那里，即使不穿衣服也能生存。他们的皮肤很可能很黑，因为浅色皮肤几乎无法抵御灼热的阳光。关于这些人是迁徙到世界其他地方，还是在世界各地独立发展，存在争议。无论哪种说法，人们都相信，随着时间的推移，他们能够从非洲迁徙到世界大部分地区。这可能是因为他们的身体特征发生了变化。例如，早期类人猿可能并不直立行走，但当他们发展出这种能力后，他们的旅行效率更高了。或许更重要的是他们工具制造技术的进步。有了工具，他们可以猎捕或拾荒其他动物，因此他们可以摄入比低能量素食所能提供的更多的蛋白质和脂肪。不仅他们的身体，他们的大脑也会因为摄入更多能量而发生变化。大脑的生长需要大量的能量。随着食物来源的扩展，类人猿能够在体力和智力上扩张他们的领地。

The first human beings, or their humanlike precursors, probably evolved in tropical regions where survival was possible without clothing. It is likely that they had very dark skin because light skin would have given little protection against the burning rays of the sun. There is debate about whether these people spread into other parts of the world or, instead, whether people developed independently in various parts of the world. Whichever the case, it is believed that in time they became capable of spreading out from Africa, eventually to most of the world. This was probably because their physical characteristics changed. For instance, early hominids probably did not walk upright, but when they developed that ability, they could travel more efficiently. More important, perhaps, was their development of tool making. With tools, they could hunt or scavenge other animals, so they could consume more protein and fat than their low-energy vegetarian diet would have provided. Not only their bodies but also their brains would have been changed with more energy. The brain needs lots of energy to grow. As their diet expanded, hominids could physically and intellectually expand their territory.

虽然所有早期类人猿可能都是深色皮肤，但随着他们的迁徙，情况发生了变化。在他们扩张到的最北部地区，阳光非常微弱，尤其是在漫长的冬季，而且经常被云层或雾气遮挡。深色皮肤在温暖、阳光充足的气候下曾是一种优势，但现在却变成了劣势，因为阳光穿透皮肤后，有助于人体产生维生素D，而维生素D是人体营养中必不可少的元素。在这些寒冷地区长期居住的人群——或许100,000 年或更长时间——通过基因突变和自然选择的过程，似乎逐渐形成了更浅的肤色。

Although all early hominids were probably dark-skinned, as they moved, that changed. In the most northern of the territories into which they expanded, the sun was very weak, especially in the long winters, and was often hidden by clouds or fog. Dark skin, which had been an advantage in warm, sunny climates, became a disadvantage because the sun’s rays, by penetrating human skin, help produce vitamin D, which is an essential element in nutrition. Populations that remained in these colder regions for very long periods of time—perhaps 100,000 years or more—seem gradually, through gene mutations and the process of natural selection, to have developed much lighter shades of skin.

自然选择的局限性自然选择并不能完全解释所有的进化变化。在小群体中，一些这样的变化可能是由基因突变引起的，这些突变虽然无害，但不会形成有助于生存的特征。但这些群体发展出的其他特征可能会增加它们的生存机会，因此它们的数量不断增加，并传播到更广阔的区域。自然选择或许可以解释非洲黑人的深色皮肤和北欧人的浅色皮肤，但它并不能明显地解释其他一些群体特征，例如亚洲人和西方人眼睛结构的不同，也无法解释如此多的相似性。因此，该领域的研究可能会继续下去。

Limitations of Natural Selection Natural selection does not completely account for all evolutionary changes. In small groups, some such changes may result from gene mutations that are harmless but do not create characteristics that contribute to survival. But other characteristics developed by such groups may increase their chances of survival, and so they grow in number and spread over wider areas. Natural selection may explain the dark skins of black Africans and the lighter skins of northern Europeans, but it is not an obvious explanation of some other group characteristics, such as the different construction of the eyes in Asian and Occidental people, nor does it account for as much similarity as exists. Therefore, work in this area will likely continue.

遗传学的最新进展

Recent Developments in Genetics

近年来，科学家极大地扩展了我们对遗传学的认识。人们曾认为基因是生命的基石，而如今，科学家已经解开了基因之谜，发现了DNA（即脱氧核糖核酸）这个小小的组成部分，它是基因的基本化学组成部分。科学家们很早就知道DNA的存在，但直到1953年，詹姆斯·沃森和弗朗西斯·克里克才解开了DNA的双螺旋结构，发现DNA类似于螺旋楼梯。他们发现，每一步都充当一个密码词，决定了氨基酸如何连接到构成所有生物的蛋白质中。这就像发现了生命的蓝图（但不知道生命最初是如何被创造的，也不知道是什么力量绘制了这张蓝图）。

In recent years, scientists have significantly extended our knowledge of genetics. Whereas once it was thought that genes were the building blocks of life, today scientists have unraveled the gene and discovered a small building block, DNA, or deoxyribonucleic acid, the basic chemical building block of genes. Scientists had known for a long time that DNA existed, but it was only in 1953 that James Watson and Francis Crick unraveled its double helix structure, discovering that DNA resembled a spiral staircase. They found that each of the steps serves as a code word and determines how amino acids are linked into the proteins of which all living things are made. It was like discovering the blueprint for life (but not how life was originally created or what force had drawn the blueprint).

一旦对 DNA 有了合理的认识，科学家的下一步就是进行基因拼接和改变蓝图。这开辟了一个全新的领域。如果科学家可以改变一个基因，他们就可以通过克隆（即复制）现有形式甚至可能构建新形式来对生物体进行某种控制。这个过程称为基因工程，即重新排列遗传物质以创造新的人造生命形式或改变现有的生命形式。到 2001 年，科学家已经识别了所有人类基因，这意味着他们开始了解人类生物学构成。研究人员发现，人类只有大约 25,000 个基因，比蠕虫多约 6,000 个，而且人类与多种动物共享许多基因。

Once DNA was reasonably understood, the next step for scientists involved gene-splicing, and changing the blueprint. This opened up a whole new field. If scientists could change a gene, they could exercise some control over living organisms by cloning—that is, duplicating— existing forms and possibly building new ones. This process is called genetic engineering, rearranging genetic material to create new, human-made life forms or to change existing ones. By 2001, scientists had identified all the human genes, which meant they had the beginning of the set of directions to what makes us biologically what we are. Researchers found that humans had only about 25,000 genes, about 6,000 more than a worm, and that humans share many genes with a wide variety of animals.

随着科学家们对DNA和进化的研究，他们发现进化过程比他们最初想象的更为复杂。具体来说，他们发现还有另一种蛋白质——RNA（核糖核酸），它充当着信使的角色，决定或表达DNA在生殖过程中的组合方式。这一发现意义重大，原因有二。首先，它使生殖研究比单靠DNA控制进化过程的情况复杂得多。其次，它允许表观遗传因素影响生殖，这意味着后天因素可以影响先天因素。表观遗传学是研究环境对生殖影响的学科。例如，如果生物体受到压力，其后代的基因会编码一些对压力的反应，例如变得比平时更小。这种从后天因素到先天因素的反馈，使得进化变化发生的速度比基于突变的自然选择机制预测的要快得多。环境不仅选择适应环境的变化，还影响哪些基因组合，从而使习得的、由环境决定的性状能够遗传。

As scientists have studied DNA and evolution they have found that the evolutionary process is more complex than they originally thought. Specifically they are discovering that there is another protein, RNA (ribonucleic acid), that acts as a messenger and determines or expresses how DNA combines in the reproduction process. This discovery is important for two reasons. The first is that it makes the study of reproduction much more complicated than it would be if DNA alone controlled the evolutionary process. The second is that it allows for epigenetic influences on reproduction which means that nurture can affect nature. Epigenetics is the study of environmental influences on reproduction. For example, if living organisms are stressed, the genes of their children will encode some of their responses to stress, such as becoming smaller than usual. This feedback from nurture to nature is a path for much faster evolutionary changes to occur than would be predicted by mutation-based natural selection mechanisms. The environment not only selects for changes that fit the environment, it also influences which genes combine so that learned and environmentally determined traits can become inheritable.

这张基因图谱与基因拼接技术相结合，让我们更好地理解了人与人之间差异的生物学原因，以及导致人发生改变的因素。利用如此大量的数据进行科学研究原始信息已在多个方向蓬勃发展，很可能需要对构成细胞的众多蛋白质的研究来补充。因此，一门新的应用科学——蛋白质组学——正在基因组计划的基础上发展。这项研究仍处于早期阶段，尽管一些科学家相信，他们很快就能将构成DNA的非生物化学物质组合起来，并通过以适当的比例将它们组合成生物体。然而，基因工程在医学领域的重大突破可能还需要几十年的时间。

This genetic map, combined with gene-splicing technology, has given us a much better understanding of the biological causes of differences among people and what can cause changes in people. Scientific research using this enormous amount of raw information has taken off in many directions and will likely have to be complemented by a study of the many proteins that are the building blocks of cells. Thus, a new applied science— proteomics—is building on the genome project. This study is still in its early stages, although some scientists believe that soon they will be able to combine the nonliving chemicals that make up DNA, and by combining them in the right proportions, be able to turn those chemicals into something living. The major breakthroughs from genetic engineering for medicine are, however, probably decades away.

掌握遗传密码会带来诸多社会和伦理困境。我们能延长寿命一百年吗？如果可以，应该这样做吗？我们能创造新的生命形式吗？如果可以，它们拥有什么权利？

Having our genetic codes presents many social and ethical dilemmas. Can we extend life spans by one hundred years? If we can, should we? Can we create new life forms? If so, what rights would they have?

进化论的修正

A Revised Theory of Evolution

进化论并非一成不变；随着更多证据的发现，该理论可能会发生变化。达尔文之后的进化论强调突变与自然选择之间的相互作用是进化的关键复制动力。物种的进化得益于有益突变和自然选择，这使得它们得以繁衍生息。在该理论中，进化需要很长的时间，新物种的出现也需要很长时间。最近的遗传学研究正在改变这一理论。通过研究各种物种的DNA，科学家发现物种可以与DNA相似的物种杂交。通常，这种结合的后代不育，但有时并非如此，如果自然选择青睐这些后代，这些后代就可以发展成为一个新物种。因此，在修正的进化论中，突变只是物种进化变化的驱动力之一；杂交是另一个驱动力。未来几年，生物学家将研究杂交在解释新物种发展方面的重要性，以及基因剪接方面的新研究是否会从根本上改变进化的性质和方向。

Evolutionary theory is not written in stone; as further evidence is discovered, the theory can change. The story of evolution that followed from Darwin was a theory that emphasized the interaction between mutation and natural selection as the key replicator dynamic of evolution. Species evolved because of beneficial mutations and natural selection, which allowed those species to thrive. In this theory, evolution occurs over long periods of time and it takes a long time for new species to develop. Recent work in genetics is changing that theory. Studying the DNA of various species, scientists have found that species can interbreed with species with somewhat similar DNA. Generally, the offspring of such unions is barren, but sometimes they are not, and, should natural selection favor the offspring, that offspring can develop as a new species. So in the modified theory of evolution mutation is only one of the driving forces of evolutionary change in species; hybridization is another. In the coming years biologists will be studying how important hybridization is explaining the development of new species and whether new work in gene splicing may fundamentally change the nature and direction of evolution.

多层次群体选择之争社会生物学家之间正在进行的另一场争论涉及多层次群体选择的存在——该理论认为自然选择不仅发生在个体层面，也发生在不同的群体层面。达尔文所使用的标准自然选择理论仅涉及个体层面的选择。在该理论中，个体因其对环境的适应性而被选择，因此，当环境发生变化时，那些具有适应该环境特征的个体也会发生变化，因为这会增加它们的生存可能性：适者生存。

The Multilevel Group Selection Debate Another debate that is ongoing among sociobiologists concerns the existence of multilevel group selection—the theory that natural selection takes place not only at the individual level but also at various group levels. The standard theory of natural selection that Darwin used involved selection only at the individual level. In it individuals are selected for their fitness to the environment, so that when the environment changes, those individuals with characteristics that fit that environment change because it increases their likelihood of survival: there is survival of the fittest individuals.

根据标准的自然选择理论，我们不会预期个体对群体表现出利他行为，因为这不会增加个体生存的可能性。但如果选择是在群体层面进行的，那么我们预期亲社会利他行为会存活下来，因为它会增加群体生存的可能性。在多层次的群体选择中，这种可能性会更大。所有类型的亲社会和利他行为都符合进化论。

Using standard natural selection theory one would not expect altruistic behavior toward a group, because that would not increase the likelihood of the individual’s survival. But if the selection is at the group level, then one would expect prosocial altruistic behavior toward a group to survive since it increases the likelihood of the groups survival. With multilevel group selection, the possibilities are much greater. All types of prosocial and altruistic behavior will be consistent with evolutionary theory.

一些社会科学家甚至认为，我们可以将群体视为一种新兴的感知，我们对是非善恶的感受，是正在形成的更广阔的感知现实的一部分。如果这是真的，那么最好将个体视为由各种组成部分组成的，这些组成部分以一种方式结合在一起，形成了一种集体感知，并在个体内部得以体现。正如我们是由为集体福祉而努力的组成部分组成一样，我们也是更大集体感知的组成部分，这种感知远远超出了我们个人的理解范围，但当我们感受到是非善恶时，我们会本能地感受到它。宗教在人类社会中扮演的重要角色，正是这种本能驱动我们扮演集体感知的一部分角色的体现。作为个体，我们无法完全理解这种感知，但它可能存在于某种更高的存在层面。

Some social scientists have even argued that we can see groups as a type of emergent sentience, and that our feelings about what is right or wrong are part of a larger sentient reality that is in the process of emerging. If this is true, it is best to think of individuals as made up of components which have come together in a way that allows a collective sentience that manifests itself within the individual. But just as we are made up of components that work for the good of the collective, so too are we components of a larger collective sentience, which is far beyond our individual understanding, but which we feel instinctually when we feel what is right or wrong. The strong role that religion has played within human societies is a manifestation of this instinctual push to play our role as part of the collective sentience, which we as individuals are unable to fully comprehend, but which may exist at some higher level of being.

多层次自然选择对于人类和文化尤其重要，因为它表明合作和亲社会行为，而不是自私，可能是个体被选择的特征之一，而将个体视为自私和理性的分析忽略了人类社会的一个重要元素。

Multilevel natural selection is particularly relevant for humans and culture since it suggests that cooperation and prosocial behavior, rather than selfishness, could be one of the traits that individuals are selected for, and that analysis treating individuals as selfish and rational is missing an important element of human society.

近期事态发展的一些启示

Some Implications of Recent Developments

技术的变化给社会带来了极其棘手的问题。例如，如果父母可以为孩子选择性格特征，他们会选择什么性格特征？他们的决定将如何影响总体人口？是否会划定一条界限，禁止克隆人类，但允许基因改造甚至控制现有人类？谁来划定这条界限？又将如何执行？研究人员收集的信息可能会被用于无法预料的、甚至可能是不良的方式。例如，政府可能会收集有关其公民的信息，并利用它来操纵他们。或者养老金系统可能会利用这些信息来识别潜在的长寿人群，并向他们收取更高的养老金。又或者，保险公司可能会利用这些信息拒绝为易患某些疾病的个人提供医疗保险。我们可以预见，这项科学事业将在整个21世纪产生重大的社会影响。

Changes in technology present society with extraordinarily difficult questions. If, for instance, parents can choose characteristics for their children, what characteristics will they choose, and how will their decisions affect the overall population? Will a line be drawn forbidding cloning of human beings but permitting genetic alteration and possibly control of existing human beings? Who would draw such a line and how would its boundaries be enforced? The information gathered by researchers might be used in unforeseen and possibly undesirable ways. For instance, a government might collect knowledge about its citizens and use it to manipulate them. Or pension systems might use it to identify potentially long-lived people and charge them more for pensions. Or insurance companies might use the information to deny medical coverage to individuals predisposed to certain diseases. We can expect significant social repercussions from this scientific enterprise throughout the twenty-first century.

毫无疑问，道德、政治、宗教、科学和政府力量将在国际范围内动员起来，就这些问题展开辩论。思考这些问题，你就能体会到新发现将如何对我们赖以生存的社会体系产生深远的影响。简而言之，我们未来的社会进化很可能将受到我们所掌握的人类进化信息的巨大影响。我们所知道的知识将改变我们自身。

Moral, political, religious, scientific, and governmental forces will undoubtedly mobilize on an international scale for debates on these issues. Thinking about them gives you a sense of how new discoveries can have profound effects on the social system in which we live. In short, our future social evolution will likely be substantially influenced by the information we have about our human evolution. What we know will change what we are.

物种应该重新分组吗？随着我们对生物学知识的不断进步以及我们对生命形式基因组成的了解越来越多，我们区分物种并将它们按进化顺序排列的能力发生了巨大的变化。我们目前使用的物种划分是由卡尔·林奈（1707-1778）创建的。他的划分主要基于身体特征。随着我们对基因组成认识的不断提高，我们逐渐意识到身体相似并不一定意味着基因相似，反之亦然。鉴于基因组成的重要性，按基因成分划分物种似乎是合乎逻辑的。然而，按身体特征划分物种仍然是主要的划分方式。这是任何知识和术语体系中惯性的一个例子。它们进化得很慢。

Should the Species Be Regrouped? As our knowledge of biology has progressed and we have developed far more information about the genetic makeup of life forms, our abilities to differentiate species and to place them in orders of progression have changed enormously. The divisions of the species that we currently use were created by Carolus Linnaeus (1707-1778). His divisions were determined primarily by physical traits. As our knowledge of genetic makeup has improved, we have come to realize that physical similarities do not necessarily imply genetic similarity, and vice versa. Given the importance of genetic makeup, it would seem logical to organize species by genetic components. However, division by physical characteristics is still the dominant division used. This is an example of the inertia in any system of knowledge and terminology. They evolve slowly.

社会生物学

Sociobiology

遗传学研究并不是唯一一个取得进步的进化相关领域；进化论研究本身也取得了进步，并且在某个方面得到了扩展。

The study of genetics is not the only evolution-related field to experience progress; the study of evolution itself has progressed, and on one front it has been extended.

一群被称为社会生物学家的科学家认为，人类行为的进化方向与解剖学和人体化学的方向一致：旨在提高物种的生存机会。那些无法提高生存机会的行为最终将导致物种灭绝。社会生物学是社会学和生物学的结合，旨在构建人类行为的遗传基础理论。

A group of scientists called sociobiologists has argued that human behavior evolves in the same direction that anatomy and body chemistry do: to increase the chances of survival of the species. Behavior that does not increase chances of survival will eventually lead to destruction. Sociobiology is a combination of sociological and biological reflections that theorize a genetic basis for human behavior.

社会生物学的领军人物、哈佛大学昆虫学家爱德华·O·威尔逊（Edward O. Wilson）举了一个例子，或许有助于阐明社会生物学家的推理。人们天生就对陌生人有一种固有的恐惧。这种恐惧是一种必要的遗传特征；它是一种“准备学习”的形式，在不到一岁的婴儿身上就能看到。如果婴儿没有这种恐惧，他们就更容易受到攻击，从而更难存活下来。经过几代人的努力，表现出这种特征的个体通常比不具有这种特征的个体存活下来的更多，最终这种遗传特征将成为物种的固有特征。

A leader in sociobiology, Harvard entomologist (one who studies insects) Edward O. Wilson has provided an example that may help clarify the reasoning sociobiologists use. People are born with an inherent fear of strangers. This fear is a necessary genetic trait; it is a form of “prepared learning” that can be seen in infants less than a year old. If infants did not have this fear, they would be more susceptible to attack and thus less likely to survive. Over generations, more individuals who exhibit this trait generally will survive than individuals who do not, and eventually the genetic trait will become inherent in the species.

这个论点看似简单，无关紧要，但如果我们将“陌生人”替换为“其他种族的人”，这个论点就会变得更加棘手，并与我们社会对公平的看法相冲突。人们可以将任何行为合理化，至少可以将其合理化为“基因决定”。因此，社会生物学引发了强烈的攻击，称其“为种族主义辩护”。对此，社会生物学家指出，他们的论点并非基因直接控制行为，而是基因发挥了作用。威尔逊表示：“我们认为，在进化过程中，存在一种机制，它不断地贯穿整个循环：基因变异、文化变异、基因变异等等。” 提出的问题极具争议，让人想起早期基督教哲学家们争论的自由意志决定论问题。我们做这些事是因为我们被设定了程序，还是出于我们的选择？我们怀疑这场争论还会持续一段时间。

The argument may seem simple and of little consequence, but if we replace “strangers” with “persons of another race,” the argument becomes more problematic and conflicts with our society’s views on equity. People can justify or at least rationalize any behavior as being “in their genes.” Therefore, sociobiology has provoked strong attacks that it “justifies racism.” In response, sociobiologists point out that their argument is not that genes directly control behavior, but rather that genes play a role. Wilson states, “We’re suggesting that there is a mechanism which one sees during evolution continuously around the circuit: genetic change, cultural change, genetic change, and so on.” The issues raised are highly controversial and are reminiscent of the free will determinism issue early Christian philosophers debated. Do we do what we do because we are programmed to do it, or do we do it by choice? We suspect the debate will continue for some time.

© www.cartoonstock.com

© www.cartoonstock.com

社会生物学几乎只关注遗传自然选择，这种担忧导致了心理学新领域的发展——进化社会心理学。该领域承认生物和遗传因素在解释行为方面发挥着作用，但认为其他因素也很重要。

The concerns about the almost singular focus of sociobiology on genetic natural selection have led to the development of a new field of psychology—evolutionary social psychology This field accepts that biological and genetic factors play a role in explaining behavior but argues that other factors are also important.

间断平衡与渐进变化

Punctuated Equilibrium Versus Gradual Change

进化论也在另一个方面受到挑战。达尔文认为进化是一个渐进的自然选择过程，适者生存是最有可能的现象。如今，像古生物学家奈尔斯·埃尔德雷奇和博学^之士斯蒂芬·杰伊·古尔德这样的进化论者认为，进化的特点是长期的相对稳定，其间穿插着突变，随后更加稳定，然后又发生更多突变，如此反复。一种解释这种现象的假设是，环境的变化导致物种分化并特化到几个新的生态位，从而创造出新的谱系。在古尔德的理论中，一个物种会在数千年或数十万年内保持不变，然后突然发生某种事情改变它（也许是基因剪接？），甚至将其消灭。古尔德的理论可以被认为是宏观进化——周期性的突然大变化，而通常的渐进进化概念可以被认为是微观进化——一系列连续的、几乎难以察觉的微小变化。

Evolution theory is also being challenged on another front. Darwin saw evolution as a gradual process of natural selection and survival of the fittest as the most likely phenomenon. Now evolutionists such as paleontologist Niles Eldredge and polymath² Stephen Jay Gould argue that evolution is characterized by long periods of relative stability that are punctuated by sudden changes, followed by more stability, followed by more changes, and so on. One hypothesis why this occurs is that changes in environment cause species to diversify and specialize into several new niches, creating new lineages. In Gould’s theory, a species will be unchanged for thousands or hundreds of thousands of years and then suddenly something will happen that will change it (perhaps gene-splicing?) or even wipe it out. Gould’s theory can be thought of as macroevolution—periodic sudden large changes, and the normal concept of gradual evolution can be thought of as microevolution—a continuous, almost unnoticeable succession of small changes.

争论的焦点在于古人类学家在考古发掘中发现的数百万年前的化石证据。在进化研究中，考古学家发现了一些化石，展现了人类等各种物种所经历的变化。然而，科学家们期望最终能够填补的巨大空白仍然存在。古尔德的理论正是针对这一问题。古尔德的间断平衡理论认为，进化是一个突然停止/启动的过程，其间存在着很长的静止期。

The debate centers on fossil evidence from millions of years ago that paleoanthropologists find in their digs. In the study of evolution, archaeologists have found fossils that demonstrate the changes various species such as humans have undergone. However, large gaps that scientists expected to fill eventually somehow remain. It is here that Gould’s theory enters. Gould’s punctuated equilibrium theory holds that evolution is a stop/go process of sudden change, with long intervening periods of no change.

图 2.1显示了间断平衡与渐进进化之间的区别。向上倾斜的直线代表传统观点，而新观点——间断平衡——则用水平线表示，每百万年左右会出现一个突然向上的跳跃或阶段。哈佛大学考古学家彼得·威廉姆森在肯尼亚图尔卡纳湖的蜗牛化石中发现了一个突然跳跃的例子。他发现，在两百万年的时间里，发生了两次突变，两次突变都发生了重大的进化变化，而两次突变之间几乎没有发生变化。因此，在古尔德看来，进化不过是一系列革命，其间穿插着长时间的平静。间断平衡进化论之所以引起人们的兴趣，是因为它解释了旧理论无法解释的部分现象。例如，他的理论可以解释数百万年前恐龙的突然消失。如果进化是一个连续的过程，它们就会慢慢灭绝。

The difference between punctuated equilibrium and gradual evolution can be seen in Figure 2.1. The straight upward-sloping line represents the traditional view, and the new view, punctuated equilibrium, is depicted by the horizontal lines with sudden upward jumps or stages every million or so years. An example of sudden jumps has been found in snail fossils at Lake Turkana in Kenya by Harvard archaeologist Peter Williamson. He discovered that, over a two-million-year period, there were two sudden changes in which major evolutionary changes occurred, and in between almost no change occurred. Thus, in Gould’s view, evolution is merely a series of revolutions interspersed with long periods of calm. The punctuated equilibrium theory of evolution has attracted interest because it explains parts of the phenomenon that the old theory could not. For example, his theory could explain the sudden disappearance of dinosaurs millions of years ago. If evolution were a continual process, they would have died off slowly.

古尔德的间断平衡理论受到了彼得·谢尔顿的质疑。古尔德之前的研究人员已经注意到，一组与螃蟹相关的生物——三叶虫——中存在一个显著的“断层”（见图2.2）。在这些三叶虫的进化过程中，似乎出现了一个突然的停滞期，之后这组三叶虫又重新开始进化，但呈现出一些不同的特征，尤其是在肋骨数量上。古尔德的理论曾被引用，认为缺乏能够用稳定变化的肋骨数量来填补这一缺口的三叶虫。然而，谢尔顿经过艰苦的努力，找到了能够填补这一缺口的样本，表明三叶虫的平均肋骨数量随时间缓慢变化。谢尔顿的发现引发了诸多争议，普遍的看法是，双方都在某种程度上是正确的，有些变化可能是间断的，而有些变化可能是渐进的。但这些观点正在演变，未来几年可能会发现更多证据。

Gould’s punctuated equilibrium theory was challenged by Peter Sheldon. Researchers before Gould had noted a significant gap in a set of crab-related creatures called trilobites (see Figure 2.2). In the evolution of these trilobites, it appeared that there was a sudden stop, and then the set of trilobites picked up again but with some different characteristics, especially in the number of ribs they had. The absence of trilobites that would have filled the gap with a steadily changing number of ribs had been cited as supporting Gould's theory. However, through painstaking work, Sheldon found specimens that filled in the gaps, showing that the average number of ribs the trilobites contained changed slowly over time. Sheldon's findings generated much debate, and the general feeling was that both sides were in some way correct and that some changes may be punctuated and others may be gradual. But these views are evolving and more evidence is likely to be found in years to come.

科学、信仰与争议

Science, Faith, and Controversy

进化论引发了多大的争议，可以从一些著名的法庭审判中看出。例如，1925年，田纳西州高中生物教师约翰·斯科普斯因违反州法律而被起诉，该法律禁止在公立学校教授进化论。直到20世纪60年代末，这项法律以及几个邻近州的类似法律才被废除。近年来，进化论再次成为头条新闻，这次是因为一个名为“科学创造论者”的团体发起的攻击。科学创造论并非一门科学，而是一种信念，认为所有现存的生命形式都是在某个时刻自发创造的。随着时间的推移。支持者推动了许多州通过法规，要求在公立学校课堂和教科书中教授进化论时，教授实际上是宗教反对进化论的内容。作为回应，出版商建议作者淡化教科书中对进化论的讨论，以便让科学创造论者能够接受。结果是，一些教科书对进化论的讨论非常有限。许多教育工作者对此表示抱怨，1985年，加利福尼亚州对这些抱怨采取了一些措施。它通知出版商，除非他们的教科书正面处理这个问题，否则他们的教科书将被加州公立学校取消采购。

Just how much controversy evolution has caused can be seen in some famous court trials that have dealt with the issue. In 1925, for example, a Tennessee high school biology teacher, John Scopes, was prosecuted for and found guilty of breaking a state law forbidding the teaching of evolution in the public schools. The law and others like it in several neighboring states were not repealed until the late 1960s. In recent years, evolution has again made headlines, this time over attacks by a group called scientific creationists. Scientific creationism is not a science, but rather the belief that all present life forms were spontaneously created at one point in time. Proponents have helped pass statutes in a number of states requiring the teaching of what is actually religious objections to evolution wherever the latter is presented in public school classes and textbooks. In response, publishers have suggested to their authors that they tone down the discussion of evolution in textbooks so that it is acceptable to the scientific creationists. The result has been that some textbooks have devoted only minimal discussion to evolution. Many educators have complained, and in 1985 California did something about those complaints. It informed publishers that unless their books dealt with the issue head on, their books would be dropped from public school purchases in California.

坦率地说，没有任何美国专业科学家组织为神创论提供任何科学支持。事实上，几乎所有公认的科学权威都强烈反对这种对学术自由、传统科学方法以及美国政教分离原则的攻击。1982年的一项联邦法院判决支持了科学家们的观点，推翻了阿肯色州一项强制该州公立学校学习科学神创论的法律，理由是神创论并非科学而是宗教，因为它建立在精神层面而非客观层面的前提上，因此违反了美国政府治理方式中政教分离的原则。

To put the matter bluntly, no organization of US professional scientists has given any scientific support to creationism. In fact, almost all recognized scientific authorities strongly reject such assaults on academic freedom, the traditional scientific method, and the American principle of separation of church and state. A 1982 federal court decision endorsed the scientists’ view by throwing out an Arkansas law mandating the study of scientific creationism in the state’s public schools on the grounds that creationism is not a science but religion, as it rests on a spiritual, not objective, premise and thus violates the separation of church and state principle that is part of the US approach to government.

二十世纪末，堪萨斯州教育委员会决定，各校区可自行选择是否教授进化论。此举在全国范围内引发了激烈的讨论，但这并非美国教育的主流趋势。反对该条款的理由之一是，该条款的实施将使堪萨斯州学校系统的毕业生脱离美国科学理论的主流，从而对许多未来的职业发展造成不利影响。堪萨斯州的校区中，只有少数选择停止教授进化论，在2000年的州选举中，几位支持停止教授进化论的州教育委员会成员竞选连任，最终落败。这场争议持续至今，一些州政府仍在就限制进化论教学的法案进行辩论。

At the close of the twentieth century, the Kansas State Board of Education decided that individual school boards could choose whether to teach evolution. This step evoked spirited discussion throughout the country and does not represent a major trend in US education. One of the objections to the provision was that its implementation would place graduates of Kansas school systems outside the mainstream of US scientific theory and thus at a disadvantage in many future careers. Few Kansas school boards chose to discontinue the teaching of evolution, and in the state elections of 2000, several proponents of discontinuance who were running for reelection to the state board were defeated. The controversy has continued, and a number of state governments are still debating bills to limit the teaching of evolution.

这些争论之所以重要，是因为科学创造论者曾将古尔德的进化论（该理论认为进化是突然发生的而非渐进的）作为科学证据来支持他们的立场。他们认为，地球数十亿年存在的物理证据可以用一系列的创造来解释，每一次创造都取代了之前的创造。但正如古尔德所解释的那样，他的理论并非反进化论；它只是挑战了进化发生的过程。

These debates are relevant here because scientific creationists have used Gould's evolutionary theory of sudden rather than gradual evolutionary changes as scientific evidence to support their position. They say that the physical evidence of earth’s multibillion-year existence can be explained by a series of creations, each one replacing the one before it. But as Gould explained, his theory is not anti-evolutionary; it merely challenges the process whereby evolution occurs.

关于课堂教学内容的实际问题过于复杂，无法在此详述。然而，必须强调的是，尽管专业科学界不时对进化论的具体细节提出合理的批评，但负责任的科学家并没有否认其基本观点。“科学创世论”一词在很多方面都自相矛盾。创世论始终秉持着这样一种信念：生命源于神力的突然作用，且从未发生过显著的变化。这本质上是对自然起源的宗教解读。科学研究​​因果关系，因此寻求连续性。这并不是说宗教信仰不能与科学共存。最终，“存在”或“存在”必须得到解释，而目前还没有任何科学理论能够解释事物是如何从虚无中被创造出来的^。3

The actual issues of what should be taught in classrooms are too complex to be addressed here. However, it must be stressed that although there have been sound professional scientific criticisms from time to time of the specifics of evolution, responsible scientists have not denied its basic point. The phrase scientific creationism is in many ways a contradiction in terms. Creationism begins and ends with a belief that life sprang from a sudden act of divine power and has not appreciably changed. This is an essentially religious version of natural origins. Science studies cause and effect and thus looks for continuity. This is not to say that religious faith cannot coexist with science. Ultimately, “existence” or “being” must be explained, and no scientific theory can yet explain how something was created out of nothing.³

20世纪90年代中期，一种更容易被接受但仍存在争议的宗教与科学融合方法应运而生。它被称为智能设计论，并成为围绕《熊猫与人类》教科书争论的焦点。智能设计论的核心论点是，世界过于复杂，无法自行发展，只能用某种初始智能的概念来解释。这与科学创世论的不同之处在于，它并不挑战进化论的证据，而只是在其基础上添加了一套关于进化论背后原因的理论。批评者认为，这是一种将创世论引入学校的狡猾手段，而支持者则认为它是一个可接受的假设，因为它讨论的问题与科学和经验证据并不矛盾。让我明确一点，社会科学并不否认宗教的重要性，也不否认我们属于更大感知群体的可能性，正如我们在群体思考中讨论的那样。选择。但社会科学确实认为，我们对更广泛感知的理解需要与我们对进化的理解保持一致，并且，如果一个理论被认为具有潜在的科学真实性，那么它就必须以一种可通过经验检验的方式被具体化，并且在它被经验检验之前，它应该被承认是基于信仰的。

In the mid-1990s, a more acceptable but still controversial method of integrating religion into science developed. It was called intelligent design and it was the center of a fight about a textbook entitled Of Pandas and People. The central thesis of intelligent design is that the world is too complex to have developed on its own and that it can only be explained with some concept of initial intelligence. This is different from scientific creationism in that it does not challenge evolutionary evidence. It simply adds to it a theory of what is behind evolution. Critics see it as a sneaky way to introduce creationism into schools, while supporters see it as an acceptable hypothesis because it discusses issues that science and empirical evidence do not contradict. Let me be clear, social science does not deny the importance of religion, and of the possibility that we are part of a larger sentience, as we discussed in the consideration of group selection. But social science does hold that our understanding of that larger sentience needs to be consistent with our understanding of evolution, and that, if a theory is to be considered potentially scientifically true, it be specified in a way that is empirically testable, and that until it is empirically tested, it be acknowledged as being based on faith.

现代人类的祖先

Predecessors of Modern Humans

一些最有趣的进化研究都与人类的进化有关。尽管人类与其他灵长类动物关系密切，但我们仍不确定它们是如何进化的。遗传学的新研究，加上古人类学家的不断发现，正在加深我们的理解。即使存在一些过于简化的情况，我们也能勾勒出一个基本的轮廓。

Some of the most interesting studies of evolution have concerned the evolution of humans. Though humans are closely related to the other primates, we are not certain how they evolved. New work in genetics, combined with continual finds of paleoanthropologists, is improving our understanding, and with allowance for oversimplification, a basic outline can be drawn.

生命起源被认为发生在数十亿年前，当时单细胞生物从原始软泥中诞生。几千年来，这些生物进化出了各种各样的生命形式。人类起源于灵长类动物，大约在六千五百万到七千万年前进化而来；而人类物种的起源——一种类似猿猴的生物，则被认为出现在两千二百万到三千八百万年前。这种类人猿物种被认为是现代猿类和人类的共同祖先。图2.3给出了这一进化过程的总体概述。其中的每个方框代表一个不同的物种。

The origin of life is thought to have occurred billions of years ago as one-celled organisms arose from the primordial ooze. Over the millennia, the organisms evolved into a wide variety of life forms. Primates, from which humans developed, evolved some sixty-five to seventy million years ago, and a monkey-apelike creature from which the human species evolved is thought to have appeared somewhere between twenty-two and thirty-eight million years ago. This apelike species is considered the common ancestor of modern apes and humans. Figure 2.3 gives you a general sense of that evolution. Each box in it represents a different species.

首先，让我们解释一下，物种是指外貌相似、能够相互交配并产生可育后代的个体的大类。今天的人类是智人（Homo sapiens，具有推理能力的人）的唯一成员。4^也是唯一幸存的人类物种。至少还有另外两种人类物种——能人（ Homo habilis，具有制造工具的能力）和直立人（ Homo erectus，能够笔直站立的人）早已灭绝。这三种人类类型都属于同一总括类别或属。

First let us explain that a species is a broad category of individuals who look alike and can mate with each other to produce fertile offspring. Today's humans are the only members of the species Homo sapiens (reasoning man).⁴ They are also the only surviving human species. At least two other human species, Homo habilis (man with toolmaking ability) and Homo erectus (man who stands up straight), have long since become extinct. All three of these types of humans belong to the same umbrella category, or genus.

有一种人类与我们的关系比刚才提到的任何物种都更远，它属于一个独立的属——南方古猿，这种生物已经灭绝了数百万年。人类和南方古猿与几种现存和已灭绝的猿类同属人科。整个南方古猿科都属于灵长类动物的大类。

A human type more distantly related to us than any of the species just mentioned belongs to a separate genus, Australopithecus, creatures who have been extinct for millions of years. Humans and Australopithecines belong to the family Hominidae, along with several kinds of apes, both living and extinct. And the whole family belongs to the larger group of primates.

从类人猿生物到人科动物这些类人猿生物何时开始演变为人科动物（类似人类的双足动物）尚不清楚，但据信在非洲大约在六百万至一千万年前，而在欧洲和亚洲则晚了几百万年。这些时间段的化石记录很少或根本没有，因此，这一估算是基于现存人类与现存灵长类动物之间的基因差异，并结合对这些生物之间差异发生时间的估计。

From Apelike Creature to Hominid The date when these apelike creatures began to change to hominids, humanlike creatures who stood on two feet, is unclear, but it is believed to have been somewhere between six and ten million years ago in Africa, and several million years later in Europe and Asia. The fossil record for these time spans is poor or nonexistent, so the estimate is based on genetic differences between living humans and living primates combined with estimates of how long it has taken for the differences among these creatures to occur.

关于人类与其他灵长类动物的血统存在诸多争议。为了解决这一争议，研究人员越来越多地转向分子生物学和实验室DNA化学分析领域。根据化石证据，人类与猿类之间的进化分裂可能早在2500万年前就已发生，并持续了很长时间。1991年在南部非洲发现的一块据称距今1500万年的前人类颌骨化石进一步证实了这一观点。然而，人类血液与黑猩猩血液的比较结果与这一证据相矛盾，表明这种分化发生的时间要晚得多——可能只有700万年前。DNA分析结果倾向于支持更晚的年代测定，事实上，哈佛大学戴维·赖希最近的研究表明，黑猩猩和类人猿杂交了数十万年，甚至数百万年。即使在今天，黑猩猩的基因结构与人类的差异也只有1.2%。尽管赖希的假设仍有争议，但大多数科学家普遍认为，基因分析将为人类进化提供重要线索。

Much debate exists about the lines of descent of humans and other primates. In trying to resolve this debate, researchers are turning more and more to the realm of molecular biology and chemical analysis of DNA done in the laboratory. According to fossil evidence, the evolutionary split between human beings and apes might have occurred as early as twenty-five million years ago and continued for a long time. This view was strengthened by a fossil said to be of a fifteen-million-year-old prehuman jawbone found in 1991 in southern Africa. This evidence, however, is contradicted by comparison of blood substances from human beings with those from chimpanzees, indicating the divergence was far more recent—perhaps only seven million years ago. The DNA analysis has tended to support the later dating, and, in fact, recent work by David Reich of Harvard has suggested that chimps and humanoids interbred for hundreds of thousands, or even millions, of years. Even today, chimps’ genetic structure differs from humans’ by only 1.2 percent. While Reich’s hypotheses are still debated, the general belief that genetic analysis will provide important clues about human evolution is shared by most scientists.

虽然关于从猿到人科动物的过渡发生的时间存在争议，但人类学家普遍认为，包括人科动物在内的所有灵长类动物都曾生活在树上，并且在此期间，它们的四肢进化出了强健的四肢，手指和脚趾可以灵活地抓住树枝。大多数灵长类动物，包括长臂猿和猩猩，仍然生活在树上，但大猩猩和人类一样，生活在地面上。黑猩猩睡在树窝里，但白天大部分时间都在地面上度过。显然，它们下降到地面的原因之一是体型的增大。大猩猩的体重通常为 400 到 600 磅，对于树上生活来说太重了。即使是黑猩猩，除非精心选择树枝，否则也无法在树枝间荡来荡去。类人猿可以用两条腿走路，但它们还没有达到人类的直立姿势，通常用四肢行走。

Although there is a dispute as to when the transition from ape to hominid occurred, anthropologists generally agree that all the primates, including hominids, once lived in trees and that during this period they developed limbs of great strength, with prehensile fingers and toes for grasping branches. Most primates, including the gibbon and the orangutan, still live in trees, but gorillas, like humans, live on the ground. Chimpanzees sleep in tree nests but spend much of the daytime on the ground. Apparently, one reason for this descent to the ground was their increase in size. Gorillas typically weigh from 400 to 600 pounds and are far too heavy for life in the trees. Even chimpanzees are too heavy to swing about through the branches unless they choose them with care. The great apes can walk on two legs but they have not achieved the humans erect posture and normally walk on all fours.

人类与猿类之间最重要的生理差异或许在于大脑的大小和复杂程度。在不同动物物种之间，智力似乎通常与大脑重量（尤其是其相对于身体的重量）之间存在某种关联。但最重要的因素是大脑的组织结构。大尺寸的主要优势似乎在于它为更多细胞和更复杂的机制提供了空间。平均而言，黑猩猩比人类体型小，但有些黑猩猩的体重可达120或130磅。体型较小的人类大脑重量通常约为同等体重黑猩猩的三倍，而正常人类大脑皮层（大脑中最与记忆和思维相关的部分）的细胞数量可能是典型猿类大脑皮层的十倍。如今，似乎几乎毫无疑问，复杂的大脑是人类获得大量记忆、使用文字符号和进行抽象思维能力的重要基础。

Perhaps the most important physical difference between human beings and apes is in the size and complexity of the brain. Between various animal species, there seems as a rule to be some relationship between intelligence and the weight of the brain, especially its weight in relation to the body. But the most important factor is the organization of the brain. The chief advantage of large size seems to be that it provides space for additional cells and for more complex mechanisms. On average, chimpanzees are smaller than humans, but some weigh as much as 120 or 130 pounds. The brain of a small human typically weighs about three times that of a chimpanzee of the same body weight, and a normal human cerebral cortex, the part of the brain most concerned with memory and thought, may have ten times as many cells as the cerebral cortex of a typical ape. Today, there seems little doubt that this complex brain is an essential basis of the human power to acquire a vast store of memories, to use word symbols, and to carry on abstract thought.

就行为而言，猿类与人类既有惊人的相似之处，也有显著的差异。与人类一样，猿类也有家庭生活，并会照顾幼崽。它们有情绪反应，能够表达感激和羞愧，而且通常很善于社交，合作。它们有时会相互竞争，有时也会玩耍。某些黑猩猩对各种行为的训练反应良好，例如吸烟、骑自行车、用刀叉进食和用奶瓶喝水。它们还表现出解决需要理性判断的问题的能力。然而，尽管如此，人类的这些成就也存在局限性，这无疑证明了人类拥有更优越的智力品质。

With respect to behavior, there are both striking similarities and striking differences between apes and human beings. Like humans, apes have family life and care for their young. They have emotional responses, can express gratitude and shame, and often are sociable and cooperative. On occasion, they compete with one another, and sometimes they engage in play. Certain chimpanzees have responded well to training in various types of behavior such as smoking, riding a bicycle, eating with a knife and fork, and drinking from a bottle. They have also shown ability to solve problems requiring reasoned judgment. But to all these accomplishments, there are limits that argue unmistakably for the superior intellectual qualities of human beings.

体质人类学家面临的问题是填补人类进化过程的空白，如果前面讨论的间断平衡进化理论是正确的，那么解释为什么这些变化会在那时发生。在上个世纪，特别是自 20 世纪 30 年代以来，人类学家在解决这个难题方面取得了巨大进步。考古发现将我们的祖先追溯到大约六百万年前，各种各样的早期类人猿化石被赋予了令人生畏的名字，如Africanus ramidus、Zinjanthropus和Orrorin Tugenesis。化石发现仍在不断发生。2014 年，南非的研究人员发现了一个地下骨场，里面有超过 1,500 块早期类人猿分支的骨头碎片。

The problem for physical anthropologists is to fill in the gaps of precisely how humans evolved and, if the evolutionary theory of punctuated equilibrium discussed earlier is true, to explain why the changes occurred when they did. In the last century, and especially since the 1930s, anthropologists have made tremendous strides in solving the puzzle. Archaeological finds date our ancestors back about six million years, and a wide variety of early hominid fossils have been given forbidding names such as Africanus ramidus, Zinjanthropus, and Orrorin Tugenesis. Fossil finds are still occurring. In 2014, researchers in South Africa found a subterranean bone yard with more than 1,500 bone fragments of an offshoot of early hominids.

确定现代人类历史起源的关键因素之一是这些早期类人猿何时开始使用工具。已发现的带有骨骼的工具可追溯到330万年前。这类类人猿被称为“能人”，因为“能人”的意思是“制造者”。

A key element in determining when to date the start of modern human history is when these early hominids began using tools. Discoveries of tools with skeletons have been dated from 3.3 million years ago. This group of hominids is called Homo habilis because habilis means “maker.”

DNA证据与人类的起源

DNA Evidence and the Descent of Humans

直到最近，人类史前史的故事都是通过化石的发现来讲述的。通过仔细分析，这些化石与其他化石进行比较，寻找相似之处。基于这些化石之间的差异，体质人类学家会拼凑出一个人类史前史的故事。由于化石数量极其有限，这有点像用几页四分之一英寸的碎片来讲述一本一百页厚的书里的故事。这些故事需要丰富的想象力才能完整地呈现，而且坦白地说，很多故事都包含着大量的推测。

Until recently, the story of human prehistory was told through the discovery of fossils, which, by careful analysis, were compared with other fossils for similarities. Based on differences among those fossils, physical anthropologists would piece together a story of human prehistory. Since fossils were highly limited, it was a bit like telling a story from a hundred-page book with only quarter-inch scraps of a few pages. The stories required an imaginative mind to make them complete, and, to be quite honest, much of the stories involved significant conjecture.

在过去十年中，史前史故事的性质有所改变。利用所谓的“高通量 DNA 测序”，科学家们为了解史前史打开了一扇新的窗户。他们现在可以分析人类和史前人类的基因是如何变化的，并将它们与现在的基因进行比较。其结果是一个更准确（有时非常不同）的史前史故事。通过研究古代化石的 DNA，他们发现史前人类之间的流动比以前认为的要多得多，而且地球上几乎没有人的线性遗传不涉及与多个人类祖先群体的交流。从历史开始，人类和史前人类就一直在迁徙和融合。

In the last decade, the nature of prehistory storytelling has changed somewhat. Using what is called “high-throughput DNA sequencing,” scientists have a new window into that prehistory They can now analyze how the genes of humans and prehumans have changed, and compare them with what they are currently. The result is a more accurate (and sometimes quite different) story of that prehistory. What they are finding by studying the DNA of ancient fossils is that there was much more movement among prehistoric humans than previously thought, and that almost no one anywhere on the planet has a linear heritage that does not involve interchange with multiple groups of human ancestors. Humans and prehumans have been moving around and blending together from the beginning of history.

尚存的差距尽管在化石发现和 DNA 分析方面取得了进展，我们对祖先的认识仍然存在重大差距，即使是那些对该领域有着详细和技术把握的专家也是如此。例如，在这期间发生了什么？这些类人猿生物是现代人类的祖先还是仅仅是猿人的祖先？人类起源于多个地方还是只在一个地方，然后从那里分散到世界各地？这些问题仍然没有答案，而且可能永远没有答案。然而，基因研究正在带来更具体的答案。最新的基因数据表明，所有人类都来自非洲，并沿着图 2.4所示的路线遍布世界各地。

Remaining Gaps Despite advances in fossil discoveries and DNA analysis, significant gaps remain in our knowledge of our ancestors, even among experts with their detailed and technical grasp of the subject. For instance, what happened during the intervening years? Were these apelike beings the predecessors of modern humans or only of apes? Did humans start out in a number of places or in only one, from which they dispersed throughout the world? These questions still are unanswered and probably always will be. However, genetic studies are leading to more specific answers. The latest genetic data suggest that all humans descended from Africa and spread throughout the world along the lines shown in Figure 2.4.

从原始人类到智人已知最早的人类物种——能人，就是从这些早期祖先中演化而来的。能人的大脑比这些早期祖先更大，但牙齿更小，他们可能制造了石器和其他石制品。

From Hominids to Homo Sapiens The earliest known species of Homo (human), Homo habilis, emerged from these early ancestors. Homo habilis had a larger brain but smaller teeth than these early ancestors and probably produced stone tools and other stone objects.

随着我们接近本世纪，我们的信息有所增加，但尽管取得了实质性进展，信息仍然粗略且不完整。1891年，一项重要的发现在爪哇，荷兰外科医生尤金·杜波依斯博士发现了谜团的另一块碎片：直立人。直立人生活在大约180万年前，可能最晚到25万年前，他们是一名懂得使用火的猎人。

As we move closer to our own century, our information increases somewhat, but despite substantial progress, it is still sketchy and incomplete. An important find occurred in 1891 in Java when a Dutch surgeon, Dr. Eugene Dubois, unearthed another piece of the puzzle: Homo erectus. Homo erectus lived from about 1.8 million years ago to possibly as recently as 250,000 years ago and was a hunter who knew how to use fire.

据信，大约180万年前，直立人从能人进化而来，在非洲发展，并在大约100万年前迁徙到欧洲和亚洲。直立人的大脑比能人更大，牙齿则更小。牙齿尺寸的减小表明，随着人类饮食转向水果等较软的食物，以及越来越多的肉类，他们对坚果和种子等需要强健牙齿和颌骨的硬质食物的依赖正在减少。直立人似乎非常强壮，这有利于狩猎。

It is believed that about 1.8 million years ago in Africa, Homo erectus developed from Homo habilis and then dispersed to Europe and Asia about a million years ago. Homo erectus's brain was even larger and the teeth even smaller than Homo habilis’s. The lessening of tooth size indicates that dependence on hard food such as nuts and seeds, which requires powerful teeth and jaws, was decreasing as human diet veered toward softer foods such as fruit and, increasingly, meat. Homo erectus seems to have been very strong—which would have facilitated hunting.

在直立人的不可生物降解废物中，发现了比能人制造的更为复杂的物品，例如斧头，并且有证据表明，从灰烬和烧焦的材料中可以发现，在直立人存在的末期，直立人学会了使用火。

Among Homo erectus’s nonbiodegradable waste are found more sophisticated objects than Homo habilis made, such as axes, and there is evidence, from ashes and charred material, that toward the end of Homo erectus’s existence, Homo erectus learned to use fire.

1997年，两位西班牙古生物学家何塞·玛丽亚·贝穆德斯·德卡斯特罗（Jose Maria Bermudez de Castro）和胡安·路易斯·阿苏阿加（Juan Luis Arsuaga）宣布，他们对在西班牙发现的80万年前化石的研究使他们相信，先行人（Homo antecessor ，指比其更早出现的人）是一个独立的物种，可能是尼安德特人和智人（下文将讨论）的共同祖先。他们推测，在西班牙北部发现的化石代表了来自非洲的移民。

In 1997, two Spanish paleontologists, Jose Maria Bermudez de Castro and Juan Luis Arsuaga, announced that their study of 800,000-year-old fossils found in Spain had led them to believe that Homo antecessor (man who goes before) was a separate species who was a possible common ancestor of Neanderthals and Homo sapiens (discussed next). They speculated that the fossils they found in northern Spain represent emigrants from Africa.

直立人似乎在近50万年前就灭绝了。其原因尚不清楚。尽管直立人的遗物比其祖先更为复杂，但在超过一百万年的时间里，其遗物并没有表现出太大的变化。因此，一种理论认为，直立人可能过于保守和僵化，无法适应不断变化的环境。

Homo erectus seems to have become extinct nearly 500,000 years ago. The reasons are not at all clear. Artifacts of Homo erectus, although more sophisticated than those of their predecessors, do not show much change over more than a million years. Thus, one theory holds that Homo erectus may have been too conservative and inflexible to adapt to changing conditions.

另一种理论认为直立人确实发生了变化，分成了两个分支。一个分支是尼安德特人，另一个分支是现代人类智人。智人是一群人科动物，他们开始与前辈有所不同，因为他们拥有更大的大脑并且制造了更优质的工具。智人（推理人）是由比直立人更高度发达的人组成的物种。然而，早期智人与直立人有许多共同的特征。例如，他们似乎无法适应恶劣的气候，或者比直立人更容易找到食物。

Another theory is that Homo erectus did change, separating into two branches. One branch was the Neanderthals and the other was the modern human, Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens is a group of hominids who began to differ from their predecessors by their larger brains and by the better-quality tools they made. Homo sapiens (reasoning man) was a species composed of people more highly developed than Homo erectus. Early Homo sapiens, however, shared many characteristics with Homo erectus. They seem to have been unable, for instance, to adapt to harsh climates, or to find food more easily than did Homo erectus.

智人首次出现在非洲和欧洲的时间与直立人消失的时间大致相同。我们再次看到，这些新人类的大脑比他们所取代的人类更大，而且他们与直立人差异巨大，以至于被归类为一个新物种。今天所有现代人类都属于这个物种。欧洲和非洲的遗址出土了一些这些人类祖先的化石，年代大约在20万到30万年前，但根据基因证据，他们可能早在……就存在了。比化石记录早了80万年。2003年在埃塞俄比亚发现的现代人化石与近期关于人类出现时间和地点的基因研究结果相符。这些研究支持了“走出非洲”的替代理论，即人类在晚期迁徙过程中最终取代了当时世界上大多数其他类人物种，例如尼安德特人。

Homo sapiens first appeared in Africa and Europe about the same time that Homo erectus was disappearing. Once again, we see the new people displaying larger brains than the people they were replacing, and they differed so much from Homo erectus that they were assigned to a new species. It is the species to which all modern human beings belong today. European and African sites have yielded some fossils of these human ancestors ranging roughly from 200,000 to 300,000 years old, but according to genetic evidence, they may have existed as long ago as 800,000 years—earlier than the fossil record. A 2003 fossil find of modern man in Ethiopia fits with recent genetic studies of the time and place of the emergence of humankind. These support the replacement theory—“Out of Africa”—that a late migration of humans eventually supplanted most other humanlike species around the world at the time, such as Neanderthals.

新发现层出不穷。当这些新发现与化石测年技术的进步相结合时，我们对历史的理解也在不断更新。例如，2017年，在摩洛哥发现的新化石表明，智人的生活年代比之前认为的早了大约10万年。这些发现表明，智人最初在很长一段时间内遍布整个非洲，而不是像之前认为的那样只分布在东非。最近在印度尼西亚和菲律宾发现的化石被认为是此前未知的类人猿新物种。DNA测试以及数学计算技术使研究人员能够探索这些类人猿与现代智人之间的联系，并由此越来越深入地认识到，人类的历史是多维的，远比我们之前所讲述的标准故事复杂得多。

There are continually new discoveries. When these new discoveries are combined with advances in fossil dating techniques, our understanding of the history is continually being modified. For example, in 2017, a new fossil find in Morocco suggested that homo sapiens lived around 100,000 years earlier than previously thought. These finds suggest that homo sapiens first spread all through Africa over an extended period, rather than only in East Africa as had been thought before. Recent fossil discoveries in Indonesia and the Philippines are seen as new species of hominids that were previously unknown. DNA tests along with mathematical computational techniques are allowing researchers to explore these hominids connection with modern homo sapiens, and the result is an increasing understanding that humankind's background is multidimensional and far more complicated than the standard story just told.

尼安德特人距今超过10万年的遗骸数量不多。然而，我们确实知道，大约10万年前，进化网络产生了与现代人类非常相似的尼安德特人。尽管如此相似，但最近的化石证据和基因研究强烈表明，尼安德特人并非我们的祖先。相反，他们可能与现代人类拥有共同的祖先。如果现代特征在16万年前的非洲就已经存在，那么我们不可能是尼安德特人这样的物种的后代。

Neanderthals Remains from periods longer than 100,000 years ago are few. We do know, however, that the evolutionary network produced the Neanderthals, who bore a close resemblance to modern human beings, about 100,000 years ago. Despite this close resemblance, the recent fossil evidence and genetic studies strongly suggest that the Neanderthals were not our ancestors. Instead, they probably shared a common ancestor with modern humans. If modern features already existed in Africa 160,000 years ago, we could not have descended from a species like the Neanderthals.

尼安德特人的名字源于德国尼安德山谷，1856年，他们存在的第一个证据在那里被发现。他们生活在欧洲，后来迁徙到亚洲，尽管一些研究人员认为他们是在亚洲独立发展起来的。从体型上看，他们与所有其他现代人（无论是已灭绝的还是现代的）都不同，他们的头部形状，以及奇怪的是，他们的拇指长度——大约与其他手指一样长。

Neanderthals get their name from the Neander Valley in Germany, where in 1856 the first evidence of their existence was found. They lived in Europe and spread to Asia, although a few researchers believe they developed independently in Asia. Physically, they differ from all other people, modern or extinct, in the shape of their heads and, strangely, in the length of their thumbs, which were about as long as their other fingers.

人们曾认为尼安德特人是愚笨、懒散、全身长满毛发的穴居人。但这种说法仅仅基于一具化石，现代学术研究已证明这具化石属于一位年老、患病且受伤的男性。他去世时大约四十五岁——在当时的人类中已经非常高龄了。健康的尼安德特人可能直立行走。在尼安德特人遗址发现的物品表明，尼安德特人能够制造复杂的工具。他们头骨的特征表明他们可能能够说话，尽管可能不像现代人那样能发出所有种类的声音。遗址还表明，他们并不一定生活在洞穴中，但如果他们确实生活在洞穴中，他们很可能改造了洞穴，使其更适合居住。有时他们会建造庇护所，而不是在洞穴中定居。1996年，在斯洛文尼亚一处尼安德特人遗址进行挖掘的科学家宣布，他们发现了一种疑似乐器的遗骸——一支由熊骨制成的笛子。

It used to be thought that Neanderthals were dim-witted, slouching cavemen completely covered with hair. But this reputation is based on just one fossil, which modern scholarship has proved happens to be that of an old, diseased, and injured man. He was approximately forty or forty-five years old when he died—very old for people at that time. Healthy Neanderthals probably walked erect. Objects found at Neanderthal sites show that Neanderthals could make complex tools. The characteristics of their skulls suggest that they probably could speak, although perhaps not with the full range of sounds that modern humans make. Sites also show that they did not necessarily live in caves, but, if they did, they likely altered the caves to make them more livable. Sometimes they built shelters rather than settled in caves. In 1996, scientists digging at a Neanderthal site in Slovenia announced they had found what appeared to be a musical instrument, a flute made from a bear bone.

正如我们将在后续章节中讨论的那样，语言能力的发展是进化过程中的一大步。（参见关于人类物种独特性的附框。）它使人类能够进行比不说话的物种更深入的互动，从而促进社会发展。如此一来，它使人类能够更高效地传递关于环境的知识。它也使人类发展出时间、空间和数量的概念，从而创造了符号互动的潜力。

As we will discuss in later chapters, the development of language capability was a major evolutionary step. (See the box on the uniqueness of the human species.) It allowed the species much greater interaction and hence social development than could occur in nonspeaking species. In doing so, it made the passing on of learned knowledge about the environment much more efficient. It also allowed the species to develop concepts of time, space, and quantity, thereby creating the potential for symbolic interaction.

尼安德特人体格强健，但身高略矮——大约五英尺四英寸（约1.63米），比现代人矮。他们额头倾斜，眼窝隆起，鼻子宽大，下颌突出，而且他们的大脑比现代人的平均大脑要大。尼安德特人的遗骸中有一些残疾人或老年人，这足以证明他们的人性，这意味着尼安德特人非常关心他人，并且组织严密，能够为这些经济上不具备生产力的社群成员提供帮助。

The Neanderthals were powerfully built but somewhat shorter—about five feet four inches—than present-day humans. They had sloping foreheads, heavy ridges over the eyes, large wide noses, and protruding jaws, and the Neanderthal brain was larger than that of the average modern person. A tribute to their humanity is the fact that among the buried remains are people who were handicapped or aged, which means that Neanderthals cared enough and were organized enough to provide for these economically unproductive members of their communities.

迄今为止，在距今3.5万至6万年前的时期，尼安德特人遗址的发现寥寥无几。由于这段时期他们似乎也消失了，因此几乎没有证据表明他们为何消失。关于他们消失的原因，各种理论包括：(1) 他们与另一个族群克罗马农人（稍后讨论）杂交，最终尼安德特人的特征被克罗马农人完全吸收；(2) 他们与克罗马农人展开斗争，最终被彻底消灭；(3) 他们迁徙到环境过于恶劣、无法生存的地区。最近的基因检测似乎证实，至少在欧洲，尼安德特人是被克罗马农人的基因库所取代，而不是被其吸收。

To date, few Neanderthal sites have been found from the period 35,000-60,000 years ago. Because this is also the period in which they seem to have disappeared, there is little or no evidence of why they disappeared. Theories of what happened include the following: (1) they interbred with another group, Cro-Magnons (discussed later), and eventually Neanderthal characteristics were completely absorbed into Cro-Magnons; (2) they battled with Cro-Magnons in a struggle and were annihilated; and (3) they wandered away into regions that were too environmentally inhospitable for survival. Recent genetic testing seems to confirm, at least in Europe, that Neanderthals were replaced by, rather than absorbed into, the Cro-Magnon gene pool.

克罗马农人是另一群起源不明但可能是智人直接祖先的人种，他们就是克罗马农人。克罗马农人的名字源于1868年在附近发现首批克罗马农人样本的法国村庄。克罗马农人体型高大、体格健壮，颅骨容量与现代人类相当。他们和其他早期现代智人早在尼安德特人消失之前就已存在。

Cro-Magnons Another group of people, whose origins are uncertain but who may have been the immediate precursors of Homo sapiens, were Cro-Magnons. The name comes from the French village near which the first specimens were found in 1868. Cro-Magnons were anatomically modern, tall, well-built people with skull capacity comparable to that of present-day humans. They and other early anatomically modern sapiens existed before Neanderthals disappeared.

在西欧，没有发现任何距今超过 3 万年的克罗马农人骨骼，但考古学家认为，4 万年前的工具一定是现代人制造的在西欧多处地区均有发现。克罗马农人似乎在约35000年前才开始繁荣。他们的遗骸在欧洲多处遗址均有发现，在近东、中国、印度尼西亚、澳大利亚和非洲也发现了少量遗骸。这些遗骸表明，他们不如尼安德特人强壮，可能是因为他们不需要强壮。例如，力量较弱意味着所需食物较少，因此相同总量的食物可以养活更多的人口。

In western Europe, no Cro-Magnon skeletons have been found older than 30,000 years, but 40,000-year-old tools that archaeologists believe must have been made by modern people have been found at a number of western European locations. Cro-Magnons appear to have flourished only beginning about 35,000 years ago. Their remains have been found at various European sites and, in smaller numbers, in the Near East, China, Indonesia, Australia, and Africa. The remains indicate that they were not as strong as Neanderthals, probably because they did not need to be. Less strength, for instance, means that less food was necessary, so the same total amount of food could support a larger population.

一般问题

General Questions

1. 为什么说人是社会性动物？
2. Why do we say the human being is a social creature?
3. 为什么人类、猿和猴子都被归入灵长类动物的生物序列中？
4. Why are humans, apes, and monkeys all placed in the biological order of primates?
5. 解释达尔文的进化论。
6. Explain Darwin’s theory of evolution.
7. 表观遗传学和多层次群体选择如何改变达尔文的进化论？
8. How do epigenetics and multilevel group selection modify Darwin’s theory of how evolution works?
9. 科学家能创造生命吗？你认为基因工程有哪些可能性？
10. Can scientists create life? What possibilities can you see in genetic engineering?
11. 社会生物学如何解释人类行为的发展？
12. How does sociobiology explain the development of human behavior?
13. 什么是间断平衡理论？它为什么重要？
14. What is the theory of punctuated equilibrium, and why is it important?
15. 科学创世论应该在学校里教授吗？为什么？
16. Should scientific creationism be taught in schools? Why or why not?
17. 你认为类人生物在地球上出现的时间是多久？为什么确定具体日期如此困难？你认为我们为什么一直在努力尝试？
18. How long ago do you think humanlike creatures appeared on earth? Why is it so hard to determine the date, and why do you think we keep trying?
19. 人类最早的祖先是谁？他们与我们有何相似之处？又有何不同？
20. Who are some of the earliest precursors of human beings? What makes them like us? What makes them unlike us?
21. 人类拥有哪三种能力，比其他所有生物都更具优势？人类是独一无二的吗？
22. What three abilities gave humans advantages over all other creatures? Are humans unique?
23. 在www.sci-news.com/news/othersciences/anthropology/paleoanthropology网站上，选择一篇关于古人类学最新发现的文章。发现了什么？在哪里发现的？为什么这项发现如此重要？
24. Pick one of the articles about a recent discovery in paleoanthropology listed on www.sci-news.com/news/othersciences/anthropology/paleoanthropology. What was found? Where was it found? Why is this discovery important?
25. 请访问www.youtube.com/watch?v=xp4Vsq4jRFY观看视频。什么是同源结构？什么是退化器官？
26. Go to www.youtube.com/watch?v=xp4Vsq4jRFY and watch the video. What are homologous structures? What are vestigial organs?
27. 根据http://discovermagazine.com/2006/apr/chimp-genome上的信息，尽管人类和黑猩猩有 98.7% 的基因相同，但是是什么让他们如此不同呢？
28. According to the information at http://discovermagazine.com/2006/apr/chimp-genome, even though humans and chimps share 98.7 percent of their genes, what makes them so different?
29. 请访问www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5UsRpd0IPc观看本·斯坦因纪录片《被驱逐：不允许有智慧》的预告片，该片探讨了达尔文主义以及他对智能设计论压制的看法。智能设计论是否是进化论的替代方案？科学界如何解释他们对进化论的厌恶？
30. Go to www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5UsRpd0IPc and watch the trailer to Ben Steins documentary, “Expelled: No Intelligence Allowed” on Darwinism and what he considers the suppression of intelligent design. Is it an alternative to the theory of evolution, and how does the scientific community explain their dislike of this theory?

互联网问题

Internet Questions

1. 请阅读短文：www.sfgate.com/news/article/Theory-still-rocks-scientists-equilibrium-2817468.php。有哪些例子可以作为间断平衡的证据？这些例子是否都与一种进化机制有关？
2. Read the short article at www.sfgate.com/news/article/Theory-still-rocks-scientists-equilibrium-2817468.php. What are some of the examples given as evidence for punctuated equilibrium? Is one mechanism of evolution singled out for these cases?

值得探索的书籍

Books to Explore

• Begun, David R.，《真实的人猿星球：人类起源新故事》，新泽西州普林斯顿：普林斯顿大学出版社，2016 年。
• Begun, David R., The Real Planet of the Apes: A New Story of Human Origins, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2016.
• 布朗，珍妮特和杰里米·德席尔瓦，《一个最有趣的问题：达尔文的《人类的由来》对人类进化的正确和错误解读》，新泽西州普林斯顿：普林斯顿大学出版社，2021 年。
• Brown, Janet and Jeremy DeSilva, A Most Interesting Problem, What Darwin’s Descent of Man Got Right and Wrong about Human Evolution, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2021.
• 查尔斯·达尔文，《物种起源》，欧文、夏洛特和威廉·欧文编辑，纽约：昂格尔，1959 年（首次出版于 1859 年）。
• Darwin, Charles, On the Origin of Species, Irvine, Charlotte, and William Irvine, eds., New York: Ungar, 1959 (first published in 1859).
• Doudna, Jennifer 和 Samuel Sternberg，《创造的裂缝：基因编辑和控制进化的不可思议的力量》，纽约：霍顿·米夫林·哈考特出版社，2017 年。
• Doudna, Jennifer, and Samuel Sternberg, A Crack in Creation: Gene Editing and the Unthinkable Power to Control Evolution, New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017.
• 戈特沙尔，乔纳森，《讲故事的动物：故事如何让我们成为人类》，马萨诸塞州波士顿：Mariner Books，2013 年。
• Gottschall, Jonathan, The Storytelling Animal: How Stories Make Us Human, Boston, MA: Mariner Books, 2013.
• Gurche，John，《塑造人类：科学、艺术和想象力如何帮助我们理解我们的起源》，康涅狄格州纽黑文：耶鲁大学出版社，2013 年。
• Gurche, John, Shaping Humanity: How Science, Art, and Imagination Help Us Understand Our Origins, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2013.
• 哈拉里，尤瓦尔·诺亚，《人类简史》，纽约：哈珀柯林斯出版社，2015 年。
• Harari, Yuval Noah, Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, New York: Harper Collins, 2015.
• 赫斯、伊丽莎白、尼姆·黑猩猩斯基：想成为人类的黑猩猩，纽约：班塔姆出版社，2008 年。
• Hess, Elizabeth, Nim Chimpsky: The Chimp Who Would Be Human, New York: Bantam, 2008.
• 唐纳德·约翰逊和凯特·王，《露西的遗产：探索人类起源》，纽约：百老汇，2010 年。
• Johanson, Donald, and Kate Wong, Lucy's Legacy: The Quest for Human Origins, New York: Broadway, 2010.
• 马克斯，乔纳森，《98% 黑猩猩意味着什么：猿、人类及其基因》，加利福尼亚州伯克利：加州大学出版社，2003 年。
• Marks, Jonathan, What It Means to Be 98% Chimpanzee: Apes, People, and Their Genes, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 2003.
• 梅雷迪斯·马丁，《生于非洲：探索人类生命的起源》，纽约：公共事务出版社，2011 年。
• Meredith, Martin, Born in Africa: The Quest for the Origins of Human Life, New York: Public Affairs, 2011.
• 莉迪亚·派恩，《七具骷髅：世界上最著名人类化石的进化》，纽约：维京出版社，2016 年。
• Pyne, Lydia, Seven Skeletons: The Evolution of the World's Most Famous Human Fossils, New York: Viking, 2016.
• 斯特林格，克里斯，《孤独的幸存者：我们如何成为地球上唯一的人类》，纽约：时代图书，2012 年。
• Stringer, Chris, Lone Survivors: How We Came to Be the Only Humans on Earth, New York: Times Books, 2012.
• 伊恩·塔特索尔 (Ian Tattersall)，《地球的主人：寻找人类的起源》，纽约：麦克米伦，2012 年。
• Tattersall, Ian, Masters of the Planet: The Search for Our Human Origins, New York: Macmillan, 2012.
• 伊恩·塔特索尔 (Ian Tattersall)，《摇摇晃晃的哥萨克奇案》，帕尔格雷夫·麦克米伦出版社，2015 年。
• Tattersall, Ian, The Strange Case of Rickety Cossack, Palgrave Macmillan, 2015.

现代文明的摇篮：美索不达米亚和埃及

The Cradle of Modern Civilization: Mesopotamia and Egypt

虽然我们尚不清楚中东城市发展的原因，但可以推断，这得益于耕作方法的改进，它带来了粮食盈余，也改善了卫生条件。城市一旦出现，便承担了行政、商业和娱乐的功能。为了保护自己免受持续不断的战争侵扰，人们似乎会臣服于一位强大的领导者，而为了获得这种保护，他们必须缴纳一定比例的农作物产出。由此，我们的基本政治制度应运而生，即把人们聚集到按空间和种族划分的单位中，由一个小群体组织和管理。这个群体的努力提供了稳定的环境，使单位中的个人能够工作、娱乐、买卖和规划，因为他们愿意承认并支付行政人员的费用，以维护单位成员之间的和谐，并抵御外来者的入侵，维护和平。

Although we do not know the reason for the development of cities in the Middle East, we can deduce that it was made possible by improved methods of cultivation, which created a surplus of food, and improved sanitation conditions. Once in existence, cities took on the purposes of administration, commerce, and entertainment. It seems likely that in order to protect themselves from constant warfare, individuals submitted to a powerful leader, and for that protection they had to pay a certain percentage of their farm output. Thus began our basic political institution, which is the gathering of people into spatially and ethnically defined units organized and run by a small group. This group’s efforts provide the stability within which individuals in the units can work, play, buy, sell, and plan because they are willing to recognize and pay administrators to enforce accommodation among the members of the units and defend the peace against outsiders.

农业剩余以及防御可能加剧了群体间的战争，因为这引发了剩余粮食分配的问题，并给其他群体提供了掠夺的机会。由于各地争执不下，人们可能意识到，某种停止战争的方法——无论是一个群体战胜所有其他群体，还是各群体达成协议——将使所有人受益。为了实现这些目标，小规模的地区联合起来，形成了或多或少统一的王国。

Agricultural surpluses, as well as defense, probably contributed to fighting between groups, as it created questions about the division of the surplus and the opportunity for other groups to take it away. Because of constant disputes among various localities, it probably became obvious to people that some method of stopping the fighting, either by one group winning over all the others or by groups coming to an agreement, would make everyone better off. To further these ends, small localities coalesced into more or less unified kingdoms.

随着王国的扩张，王国的领导者很可能越来越疏远普通民众。随着这种情况的发生，领导者逐渐被神性所认同，要么被视为神，要么被视为神的代表。早期中东国家的一个特征就是“王神”。而“王神”又任命祭司，由此产生了异教宗教机构。

As the size of a kingdom increased, the leader of the kingdom likely became more and more removed from the ordinary inhabitants. As this happened, the leader became closely identified with divinity, either as a god or as a delegate of a god, and a feature of these early Middle Eastern countries was the king-god. The king-gods, in turn, appointed priests, and thus began pagan religious institutions.

我们看到，在这个过程中，社会组织逐渐演变成军事贵族、祭司阶层，最终形成无地农民组成的劳动阶级。随着国王权力的扩大，他们也控制了土地所有权，土地逐渐从耕种土地的个人手中转移到守护土地的贵族手中。战争造就了最底层的阶级；战败者沦为奴隶。到大约公元前3000年，这个组织趋于稳定；在这个组织中，人们摆脱了仅仅为了活下去的基本挣扎，开始信任、创造并为未来做好准备。如果我们将这一结果称为文明，那么我们可以说，大约公元前3800年，一个名叫苏美尔人的民族已经将美索不达米亚地区（位于今天的伊拉克）文明化了。

We see in this process the organization of society into a military aristocracy, a priesthood, and, finally, a laboring class of landless peasants. As the kings gained power, they also gained control of the ownership of land, which was gradually transferred from individuals who farmed the land to the nobility who protected the land. Wars created the lowest class; the captured losers in a war became slaves. By about 3000 bc, this organization had become stable; within it, people, freed from the basic struggle merely to live another day, could begin to trust, create, and provide for the future. If we name the result civilization, we may say that by about 3800 bc, a group called the Sumerians had civilized the Mesopotamian area, which is in modern-day Iraq.

组织的存在需要将其规则编纂成法。要做到这一点，人们必须认识到，所有正在发生的事情都确实在进行，并且这些活动之间存在着一定的秩序。例如，当一个孩子被谋杀时，他的父母可能会感到愤怒，并试图进行某种报复，这会导致复仇，进而引发复仇，形成一个个人报复的循环。如果能够以某种方式制定包含复仇的规则，冲动杀人行为就能减少。要做到这一点，就必须有人记录这些规则，以便领导者和臣民都能了解并遵守。

To have an organization requires codifying its rules. To do that, one must recognize that what has been going on has in fact been going on and that a certain order exists in those activities. For example, when a child was murdered, the parents probably became angry and attempted some type of revenge, which brought on revenge for revenge in a cycle of individual retribution. If rules that incorporated the revenge could somehow be established, impulsive killing could be reduced. To do that, someone had to record those rules so that they could be known and followed, by both the leaders and the subjects.

《汉谟拉比法典》是一部早期法律法规，由美索不达米亚国王汉谟拉比于约4000年前制定。该法典确立了“以眼还眼”的报复制度，并融合了禁止欺骗无助者等人道主义规则。

The Code of Hammurabi is an early collection of rules, or laws, set up by King Hammurabi of Mesopotamia about 4,000 years ago. The code set up an “eye for an eye” system of retribution, combined with humanitarian rules such as prohibitions against defrauding the helpless.

美索不达米亚的政治组织未能持久；另一群文明程度较低、更具战争精神的民族很快征服了苏美尔人。这群人就是闪米特人。尽管闪米特人赢得了战争，但他们并没有赢得文化竞争，他们的文化很快就被苏美尔文化吸收。

The Mesopotamian political organization did not last; another group of individuals, less civilized and more warlike, soon overran the Sumerians. This group was the Semites. Even though the Semites won their war, they did not win the cultural competition, and their culture was soon absorbed into the Sumerian culture.

随着闪米特人融入美索不达米亚文化，另一种与美索不达米亚文化相似的文化在埃及蓬勃发展。与美索不达米亚社会一样，埃及社会也由一位神王统治。由于其优越的地理位置，埃及免受敌对入侵（海洋和沙漠使入侵者难以威胁埃及）。这种免受入侵的条件，加上温暖可预测的气候和尼罗河肥沃的农田，造就了一个生产力极高的社会，产生了大量的农业盈余。金字塔、宏伟的丧葬神庙以及安葬着埃及国王和王后的岩石陵墓，既证明了神王的强大力量，也证明了该文化所创造的巨额盈余^。1

As the Semites were absorbed into the Mesopotamian culture, another culture, similar to the Mesopotamian, was flourishing in Egypt. Like Mesopotamian society, Egyptian society was ruled by a king-god. Because of the geography of the area, Egypt was free of hostile invasions (the sea and the desert made it difficult for attackers to menace Egypt). This freedom from invasion combined with the warm, predictable climate and the fertile farmland of the Nile led to an extremely productive society that generated significant agricultural surpluses. The pyramids, great funerary temples, and rock-cut tombs in which the kings and queens of Egypt were laid to an uneasy rest are evidence both of the power of the king-gods and of the enormous surpluses generated by that culture.¹

希腊文明的发展

Development of Greek Civilization

在整个南欧，与美索不达米亚相似的发展也在发生，尽管这种发展直到很晚才传入这些地区的大部分地区。在古希腊的克里特岛，象形文字早在公元前3000 年就已为人所知，但我们所说的文明进程直到后来才蓬勃发展——那里的鼎盛时期是从公元前 2000 年到公元前1200 年左右，当时克里特文明的物质形态突然被摧毁，可能是因为地震、海啸、火山爆发、这些灾难的某种组合，甚至是北方多立克部落的入侵。究竟发生了什么无法确定，因为无论是什么，摧毁了人类建筑，都是绝对的终结。

Throughout southern Europe, parallel developments to those in Mesopotamia were taking place, although they did not reach into most of those regions until much later. In Crete, part of ancient Greece, pictographic writing was known as early as 3000 BC, but what we have defined as the civilizing process did not flourish until later—its heyday there was from about 2000 bc to about 1200 BC, when physical Cretan civilization was suddenly destroyed, probably by an earthquake, tidal wave, volcanic eruption, some combination of these disasters, or even an invasion by the Doric tribes of the north. What exactly happened cannot be determined, simply because of the sheer finality of whatever it was that destroyed human constructs.

大约公元前700年至公元前500年，一个新的希腊文明兴起，西方文明和制度的许多根源都源于此。例如，西方的政治组织根植于希腊城邦（polis），即政治共同体。希腊城邦最初是指农业村落。这些村庄或城市也是独立的政治单位。其中最著名的两个是斯巴达和雅典（如今斯巴达是一个约有16,000名居民的城镇，而雅典则拥有近500万人口，是现代希腊的首都）。城邦的公民被视为彼此的亲属，理论上是来自共同祖先的后裔。希腊哲学家亚里士多德认为，城邦是人类天性的自然产物。他认为，没有法律和正义，人类是最坏的动物；而有了法律和正义，人类就是最好的动物。

from about 700 BC to 500 BC, a new Greek civilization emerged, and many ot the roots of Western civilization and institutions are to be found here. For example, Western political organizations have their foundations in the Greek polis, or political community. The Greek polis was originally an agricultural village. These villages or cities were also independent political units. The two most famous are Sparta and Athens (today Sparta is a town of about 16,000 inhabitants, whereas Athens bustles with close to five million people and is the capital of modern Greece). The citizens of such a unit were seen as relatives of each other, theoretically descended from a common ancestor. The Greek philosopher Aristotle argued that the polis was a natural outgrowth of the human being’s nature. He felt that without law and justice the human being was the worst of animals, but with law and justice, the best.

城邦的概念及其日益精妙复杂的实施，促进了城邦的发展，也促进了城市之间以及与其他文明之间联系的增多。随着贸易、工业和殖民的发展，一个新的阶层——商人——变得富有且举足轻重。这种变化给城邦带来了麻烦：统治贵族内部分裂，暴政（或称暴君统治）的出现。暴君是指以不受约束但并非必然邪恶的方式获得权力的君主或领导人，通过一人统治进行统治。这只是历史上众多经济变革和财富分配变化的例子之一，这些变化导致了政治和人与人之间社会关系的变化。尽管“暴君”的概念与城邦是对立的，暴君统治的习俗也只持续了大约一百年，但暴君在减少城邦内战、促进技术、艺术和文学发展所必需的经济和社会变革、削弱贵族的控制等方面发挥了重要作用。并且，矛盾的是，这让更多的人有机会在政府中任职。

The concept of the polis and its increasingly skillful and sophisticated implementation resulted in the growth of such cities and in the growth of their contacts with each other and with other civilizations. With the development of trade, industry, and colonization, a new class of people, the merchants, became wealthy and important. This change caused trouble for the polis: division within the ruling aristocracy and the establishment of tyranny, or rule by a tyrant, a monarch or leader who had gained power in an unregulated but not necessarily wicked way and who governed through one-man rule. This is one example among many in the history of economic changes and shifts in the distribution of wealth leading to changes in both politics and the social relations among people. Although the concept of “tyrant” was antithetical to the polis, and the custom of rule by tyrant lasted only about a hundred years, tyrants played a role in reducing civil wars among the poleis and in encouraging economic and social change necessary for the development of technology, the arts, and literature; reducing the grip of the aristocracy; and, paradoxically, giving more people the potential for roles in government.

波斯帝国

The Persian Empire

公元前五世纪，波斯帝国在美索不达米亚南部崛起。公元前四世纪，马其顿人征服了构成希腊世界的各个城邦。马其顿人没有城邦，由国王进行松散的统治。贵族议会制衡国王的权力。到公元前338年，其中一位国王，腓力二世，征服了雅典和其他希腊城邦。腓力二世于公元前336年遇刺身亡，其子亚历山大大帝继承王位，当时亚历山大还不满二十岁。亚历山大年仅三十三岁，因突发不明疾病去世。此时，他已巩固了父亲对希腊的征服，并继续征服埃及、几乎整个我们现在所说的中东地区以及印度的大部分地区。亚历山大曾提出“带我去征服更多世界”的口号。

In the fifth century BC, the Persian Empire arose in lower Mesopotamia, and in the fourth century bc the Macedonians conquered the various city-states that made up the world of Greece. The Macedonians had no polis and were ruled loosely by a king. A council of aristocracy served as a check on the king’s power, and by 338 bc one of these kings, King Philip II, had conquered Athens and other Greek city-states. Philip was assassinated in 336 bc, and his rule was assumed by his son, Alexander the Great, who was not yet twenty years old. By the time Alexander died, overcome by a sudden and unidentified disease when he was only thirty-three years old, he had solidified his fathers conquest of Greece and then gone on to conquer Egypt, almost all of what we now call the Middle East, and the greater part of India. To Alexander is attributed the demand “Bring me more worlds to conquer.”

波斯帝国中的希腊文明请注意，与前几节不同，我们将最后一节的标题定为“波斯帝国”，而不是“波斯文明的发展”。原因是波斯的遗产不是文化；它的遗产主要是帝国的建立。亚历山大的帝国并没有终结构成波斯帝国的文化和文明，尽管在军事上被征服，但希腊文化战胜了波斯文化。即使是波斯帝国也没有持续多久。公元前323 年亚历山大突然去世后，帝国迅速崩溃。对现代社会影响最深远的是希腊文化遗产，而不是波斯文化遗产。

Greek Civilization in the Persian Empire Notice that in contrast to the previous sections, we titled the last section “The Persian Empire,” not “The Development of the Persian Civilization.” The reason is that the Persian legacy was not cultural; its legacy was primarily the creation of an empire. Alexanders empire did not end the cultures and civilizations that made up the Persian Empire, and, although conquered militarily, Greek culture won out over the Persian culture. Even the Persian Empire did not last long. After Alexanders sudden death in 323 BC, the empire quickly collapsed. It is the Greek, not the Persian, cultural legacy that most strongly influenced modern society.

大约 1800 年后，许多希腊思想和制度在文艺复兴时期得以复兴。（文艺复兴可以翻译为“重生”，希腊思想

Many Greek ideas and institutions were revived almost 1,800 years later in what became known as the Renaissance. (Renaissance can be translated as “rebirth,” and Greek ideas were

（一些重生的概念。）由于在文艺复兴时期占据主导地位，希腊社会的思想在随后的西方文明史上发挥了核心作用。

some of the concepts that were reborn.) Because of their predominance in the Renaissance, the ideas of Greek society played a central role in the subsequent history of Western civilization.

罗马文明

Roman Civilization

正如我们之前提到的，大约从公元前4000年开始，南欧和中欧的个体开始组织成社会群体。如果我们有数千页的篇幅来解释，而你又有数百年的时间去研究，我们就能详尽地叙述这些群体的历史和互动。然而，我们不得不有所取舍，下一个我们有足够的时间和空间去探讨的文明是罗马文明，它发展于如今的意大利。它的发展比其他许多文明都晚，直到公元前1000年，它仍然是一个由无组织部落组成的集合体。

As we mentioned earlier, individuals were organizing into social groups throughout southern and middle Europe in a period beginning about 4000 BC. If we had thousands of pages to explain and you had hundreds of years to study, we could recount the history and interaction of these groups. We are forced to be selective, however, and the next civilization that we have time and room for is the Roman civilization, which developed in what is now Italy. It developed later than many of the others, and as late as 1000 bc it remained a collection of unorganized tribes.

大约公元前1000年，意大利遭到好战邻国的入侵，这些邻国将他们的语言和社会组织强加于几乎整个意大利。公元前8世纪，小村庄合并为罗马城邦，到公元前6世纪，罗马推翻了其统治。

About 1000 BC, Italy was invaded by its warlike neighbors, who imposed their language and social organization on almost all of Italy. In the eighth century BC, small villages were amalgamated into the city-state of Rome, and by the sixth century BC, it had overthrown its

外国征服者，并成为意大利和意大利文化的中心。罗马的统治构成了我们所说的罗马帝国，它持续了近一千年。

foreign conquerors and become the center of Italy and Italian culture. Rome’s dominance constituted what we call the Roman Empire, and it was to last almost a thousand years.

罗马国家是由选举产生国王的，尽管国王的职位似乎往往由同一家族继承。统治者拥有非凡的权力，可以逮捕甚至判处死刑，但所谓的元老院拥有否决权，统治者的权力最终源于元老院。

The Roman state was one in which the king was elected, although the office appears to have tended to remain in the same family. The ruler had extraordinary powers and could make arrests and even order capital punishment, but what was called the senate had veto power, and it was ultimately from the senate that the ruler derived his authority.

罗马人分为两类：贵族和平民。贵族拥有一切权力和特权；平民则不得担任任何公共或宗教职务。然而，平民在罗马持续不断的战争中作战的需要赋予了他们权力，到公元前450年，他们已经强大到足以推动罗马法律的大规模编纂。随着贵族与平民之间的区别逐渐瓦解，另一种基于财富、人脉和出身的阶级划分逐渐形成，罗马的大多数领导人都出身于这个新贵族阶层中的少数家族。

Individuals in Rome fell into two categories: patricians and plebeians. The patricians had all the power and privilege; the plebeians could hold no public or religious office. However, the need for the plebeians to fight in the constant wars that Rome undertook gave them power, and by 450 BC they were strong enough to enforce their demand for a major codification of Roman law. As the patrician-plebeian distinction broke down, another class distinction—based on wealth, contacts, and birth—developed, and most of the Roman leaders came only from the few families in this new aristocracy.

罗马文明一直延续到公元五世纪，但并未停滞不前。罗马共和国演变为罗马帝国，异教被基督教所取代；到了公元四世纪，基督教成为了罗马的国教。

Roman civilization endured until the fifth century ad, but it did not remain static. The Roman republic was transformed into the Roman Empire, and pagan religion gave way to Christianity; by the fourth century ad, Christianity was the state religion.

罗马人统治了数个世纪，其影响力至今仍遍布西方文明。他们征服了希腊文明，并将其融入自身文明。因此，当罗马文明影响我们时，希腊文明的影响也同样影响我们。以下是一些反映我们罗马文化遗产的事物。

The Romans exercised their power for centuries, and their influence pervades Western civilization today. They overran Greek civilization and incorporated it into their own, so that when Roman influence is transmitted to us, Greek influence is transmitted to us. Here are some of the things that reflect our Roman heritage.

• 家庭的主导地位
• The dominance of the family
• 妇女掌管家务并拥有某些合法财产权的习俗
• The custom of women to rule in household matters and to have certain legal property rights
• 政治庇护
• Political patronage
• 社会和职业发展的“网络”联系体系
• The “network” system of contacts for social and professional advancement
• 解决技术问题的独创性
• Ingenuity in solving technical problems
• 依赖和实践各种工程和发明艺术
• Reliance on and practice of all manner of engineering and inventive art
• 帝国的概念
• The concept of empire
• 军工联合体的存在
• Existence of a military-industrial complex
• 第二套住房和度假村
• Second homes and resorts
• 大型农业控股公司
• Large agricultural holdings
• 城市生活的诱惑
• The lure of city life
• 灵活的法律体系，根据具体情况不断变化，依靠先例来解释和修改法规
• A flexible legal system that is constantly changing to suit circumstances, relying on a body of precedents to interpret and modify statutes
• 我们所有月份的名称和日历的组织
• The names of all of our months and the organization of our calendar

罗马历史上最引人注目的四大现象——军事建设、工程建设、法律和政治管理——我们选择后者作为其他所有现象的基础。罗马的政治管理高效、合理、灵活、务实且人道。由于政府组织严密，罗马得以将其充裕的剩余精力投入到建筑、制造、农业、文学、贸易、道德哲学和征服世界。罗马也拥有充足的时间和拉丁语来发展、完善和表达其思想、原则、发现、推测和法令。如今，拉丁语构成了英语中数十万个词汇的基础，尽管英语本质上是一种日耳曼语。

From the four phenomena that are the most striking in Roman history—military undertakings, engineering, law, and political administration—we choose the last as being basic to all the rest. Roman political administration was efficient, reasonable, flexible, realistic, and humane. Because the government was so well organized, Rome was able to devote its ample excess energies to building, manufacture, agriculture, literature, trade, moral philosophy, and world conquest. Rome also had the leisure and Latin language to develop, refine, and express its thoughts, principles, discoveries, speculations, and decrees. Today, Latin forms the basis of hundreds of thousands of words in the English language, although essentially English is a Germanic language.

然而，罗马的成功也有其消极的一面：在带来好处的同时，也带来了自满、野心、贪婪、傲慢和暴政。由于这些特征比其秩序井然的社会的稳步发展更具戏剧性，今天我们常常从宗教冲突、野蛮战斗、奢华的公共狂欢节、贪污、对反对派的残酷镇压以及帝国的解体等方面来看待古罗马^。这些最终削弱了其对广大领土的控制，并导致了民众起义、金融崩溃和军事失败——简而言之，罗马帝国的覆灭，其领土包括大不列颠、欧洲大部分地区、北非和中东，均由罗马人管理。

Rome’s success, however, also had its negative side: Along with the benefits came complacency, ambition, greed, arrogance, and tyranny Because these traits are more dramatic than the steady march of its well-ordered society, today we often think of ancient Rome in terms of the religious conflict, savage combat, extravagant public carnivals, graft, brutal suppression of opposition, and dissolution that eventually weakened control over its enormous territory² and caused popular uprisings, financial collapse, and military defeat—in short, the fall of the Roman Empire, the territory encompassing Great Britain, most of Europe, northern Africa, and the Middle East administered by the Romans.

罗马遭到南北双方其他势力的攻击，到公元500年左右，帝国人口从估计的150万锐减至约30万，罗马文明最终走向灭亡。它为何灭亡？很难说，甚至可能根本不是问题本身。爱德华·吉本在《罗马帝国衰亡史》中指出，或许问题不应该是罗马为何衰亡？而应该问的是它为何能延续如此之久？

Rome was attacked by other groups from both the north and the south, and by about AD 500 the population of the empire had declined from an estimated 1.5 million to about 300,000, and Rome, as a civilization, ended. Why did it end? It is hard to say, and maybe that is not even the right question. Edward Gibbon argues in The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire that perhaps the question should not be Why did Rome fall?, but Why did it last so long?

从农奴制到重商主义

From Serfdom to Mercantilism

在此期间，农奴制（封建制度下，封建领主根据其农业产出或劳动天数的一定比例向其缴纳义务）逐渐转变为租金支付制。中央经济从

During this time, there was a gradual transition from the system of serfdom, feudal obligations owed by vassals to their lords based on a percentage of their agricultural output or days of labor, into payments of money due for rent owed. The central economy shifted from a system of

传统义务，基于以产品和服务交换金钱为基础的制度。领主们支持这一运动，因为不断扩张的贸易需要他们拥有金钱来与商人打交道。贸易带来的欲望膨胀使许多领主陷入贫困，而商人的收入则远远超过最富有的领主。

traditional obligations to a system based on the exchange of products and services for money. The lords were in favor of this movement because the expanding trade required them to have money in order to deal with the merchants. The expanded wants generated by this trade left many lords impoverished, and the merchants had incomes significantly exceeding those of the richest lords.

此时，土地贵族不再仅仅将祖传的庄园视为自己的财产，而是将其视为可能的现金来源。当养羊变得有利可图时，他们开始圈占原本共有的土地，以便羊群可以在上面吃草。这使得佃户的生计越来越困难。圈地运动剥夺了许多佃户的土地，并催生了一批新的劳动力——那些没有土地的人，他们迁入城市，过着边缘化的生活，或者四处漂泊。

At that point, the landed aristocracy began to view their ancestral manors not just as something that belonged to them but as possible sources of cash, and when sheep became profitable, they began to enclose the land that had been previously held in common, so that the sheep could graze on it. This made it more and more difficult for the tenants to support themselves. Enclosure dispossessed many tenants and created a new type of labor force—individuals without land who moved into the cities and led a marginal existence or wandered from place to place.

尽管法国直到1789年、德国直到19世纪50年代才正式废除农奴制，但到了18世纪，市场经济已然兴起，但却尚未获得完全的法律和政治地位。新的经济秩序就是重商主义，这是资本主义的早期阶段，私有制和利润很重要，但国家控制力很强。在重商主义体系中，国王赋予个人从事各种贸易的权利，国家错综复杂地介入商业和贸易的各个方面，各国都试图使出口商品多于进口商品，并建立自己的黄金储备。技术发展贯穿整个时期，但在18世纪，技术变革本身从根本上改变了劳动的方式和需求。

Although serfdom was not formally abolished in France until 1789 and in Germany until the 1850s, by the 1700s the market economy was definitely emerging, but it had yet to receive full legal and political status. The new economic order was mercantilism, an early phase of capitalism in which private ownership and profits were important, but in which there was significant state control. In a mercantilist system, the king granted rights for individuals to conduct a variety of trades, the state was intricately involved in all aspects of commerce and business, and countries all tried to export more goods than they imported and to build up their gold reserves. Technological developments continued throughout this time, but in the 1700s, technological changes themselves fundamentally altered the methods of, and needs for, labor.

民族国家的出现

The Emergence of Nation-States

随着各州的壮大和贸易的回暖，君主们试图通过支持商人前往非洲（寻找黄金）和印度（寻找香料）来巩固和扩大自己的权力。这些航行避开了黄金运往欧洲的阿拉伯陆路路线，也避开了胡椒、丁香和其他香料运往西欧和印度之间漫长而艰辛的陆路路线。因此，我们有了各种各样的大航海探险，例如哥伦布的航行，它们极大地拓宽了社会的可能性。正是通过这些寻找通往印度更好路线的航行，后来成为美国的地区才进入了西方发展的版图。

As the individual states grew and trade picked up, the monarchs attempted to consolidate and broaden their power by supporting the merchants in voyages to Africa (in search of gold) and India (in search of spices). Such voyages avoided the Arab land routes by which gold had been making its way to Europe and the long, arduous overland route between western Europe and India through which pepper, cloves, and other spices came. Thus we have a variety of voyages of discovery such as Columbus’s that tremendously broadened possibilities for society. It was through these voyages in search of still better routes to India that what became the United States enters the picture of Western development.

民族国家的出现引发了国家内部和国家之间的无数战争。这些战争包括法国宗教战争（1562-1598）、三十年战争（1618-1648）、英国光荣革命（1688）、瑞典与俄罗斯之间的北方大战争（1700-1721）、西班牙王位继承战争（1701-1714）等等。这类战争在历史上的大部分时间里都存在；冲突和冲突的威胁至今仍是现代世界面临的最重要问题。

The emergence of nation-states led to numerous wars both within and among nations. These included the French Wars of Religion (1562-1598), the Thirty Years’ War (1618-1648), the Glorious Revolution in England (1688), the Great Northern War between Sweden and Russia (1700-1721), the War of the Spanish Succession (1701-1714), and many others. Such wars were present throughout much of history; and both conflict and the threat of conflict are still the most important problems facing the modern world.

1750 年代至 1850 年代的工业和政治革命

The Industrial and Political Revolutions of the 1750s to the 1850s

1750 年至 1850 年这段时期通常被称为革命时代，因为那段时期发生了巨大的经济和政治变化。

The period of time from 1750 to 1850 is often called the Age of Revolutions because of the enormous economic and political changes that occurred during that time.

18世纪50年代，技术变革再次对社会各个领域产生了巨大的影响。这些技术变革至关重要，以至于下一个重要时期被称为工业革命。工业革命始于1750年至1900年左右，其特点是机器的发明，这些机器极大地提高了总产量，并重新组织了工作模式和社会关系。尽管工业革命始于英国，但其影响很快传遍了世界各地。这场革命受到技术发展的推动，例如约翰·凯伊的飞梭^（ 1733年）、詹姆斯·哈格里夫斯的珍妮纺纱机（1765年）、詹姆斯·瓦特的蒸汽机（1769年）以及理查德·阿克赖特的动力织机（1769年）。这些发明使得产量远超以往，从而产生了重新组织个人工作类型的需要。

In the 1750s, once again technological changes had enormous influence on all parts of society. These technological changes were so important that the next significant period is called the Industrial Revolution, a period from 1750 to about 1900 characterized by the invention of machines that had the effect of greatly increasing total output and reorganizing work patterns and social relationships. Although the Industrial Revolution began in England, its influence soon spread throughout the world. The revolution was spurred by technological developments such as John Kay’s flying shuttle⁴ (1733), James Hargreaves’s spinning jenny (1765), James Watt’s steam engine (1769), and Richard Arkwright’s power loom (1769). These inventions made it possible to produce much more output than had hitherto been possible, and in doing so created the need to reorganize the types of work that individuals did.

为了生产这些机器并运用这些技术，城市需要工人到工厂工作。这样，离开乡村庄园的人们就有了另一种选择。由于工厂的工资最初通常比农场高，人们开始涌入城市，希望在那里找到工作。工业革命进一步加强了与君主制结盟的商人的权力。

In order to produce these machines and use the technology, individuals were needed in cities to work in factories. Thus people leaving the rural manors had an alternative. Because pay was often initially higher in factories than on the farm, a migration began into the cities, where people hoped to get jobs. The Industrial Revolution further strengthened the power of the merchants, who had allied themselves with the monarchy.

在政治方面，这一时期见证了美国革命和法国革命。1776年，美国革命爆发，削弱了大英帝国，确立了个人相对于国家和统治者的权利。美国革命爆发的压力与后来引发法国大革命的条件相同。由于18世纪大部分时间的战争，政府背负着巨额债务，并不得不持续支付高额利息。在法国大革命（1789年）前夕，法国债务的利息占法国总预算的一半以上。随着商人厌倦了偿还债务，中产阶级与一些成员结盟贵族阶级的解体，引发了社会组织方式的革命。国王的权力被废除，人权和公民权宣言应运而生。法国大革命体现了新兴社会科学的思想，改变了社会的政治和经济组织。

On the political front, this period witnessed both the American and French Revolutions. In 1776, the American Revolution began, weakening the British empire and establishing the rights of individuals relative to the state and ruler. The pressures that had erupted in the American Revolution were founded in the same conditions as those that later caused the French Revolution. Because of the wars that had marked much of the 1700s, governments had significant debts on which they continually had to pay high interest. On the eve of the French Revolution (1789), the interest paid on the French debt was more than half of France’s total budget. As the merchants grew tired of paying this debt, the middle class aligned itself with some members of the aristocracy, leading to a revolution in the way societies were organized. The power of the king was eliminated, and there was a declaration of the rights of man and citizenship. The French Revolution, embodying the ideas of the emerging social sciences, changed the political and economic organization of society.

工业革命在19世纪初生根发芽。中产阶级迅速壮大，凭借其新获得的政治权力，在经济运行中扮演着日益重要的角色。在此期间，国家和社会组织经历了改革，摆脱了传统，开展了意义重大的社会实验。在此期间，社会和国家之间的界限更加清晰。到1850年，在西欧，民族国家和议会制政府的概念占据了主导地位。

The Industrial Revolution took hold in the 1800s. The middle class grew enormously and, with its newfound political power, pursued an increasingly important role in running the economy. During this time, significant social experimentation took place as the state and the organization of society went through the process of reform and of throwing off tradition. Throughout this period, societies and individual countries became more clearly defined, and by 1850 in western Europe, the concept of a nation-state with parliamentary government ruled the day.

但这些民族国家必须学会共存，而它们未能做到这一点，也未能找到一种通过谈判解决争端的方法，导致了持续的战争，并极大地改变了民族国家之间的界限。战争的结果是，许多新的民族国家应运而生，而旧的民族国家则不时消亡。19世纪，土耳其政权被驱逐出欧洲大部分地区，新的国家在巴尔干半岛取而代之：希腊、保加利亚、塞尔维亚、罗马尼亚、阿尔巴尼亚和黑山。大约有20个新国家从西班牙和葡萄牙在新大陆的旧有领地中分离出来。大约在19世纪中叶，中国和日本向西方贸易敞开了大门。它们也分别于1842年和1854年加入了民族国家共同体。

But these nation-states had to learn to live together, and their failure to do so and to discover a way to negotiate settlements of disputes among them led to continued warfare and significantly changed the boundaries separating nation-states. As a result of wars, many new nation-states have sprung into being, whereas from time to time old ones have died out. During the nineteenth century, Turkish authority was expelled from most of Europe, and new states took its place on the Balkan Peninsula: Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia, Romania, Albania, and Montenegro. Approximately twenty new states were formed from the old holdings of Spain and Portugal in the New World. About the middle of the nineteenth century, China and Japan opened their doors to Western trade. They, too, entered the community of nation-states, in 1842 and 1854, respectively.

学习共同生活

Learning to Live Together

第一次世界大战是德国、奥匈帝国和土耳其与英国、法国、比利时、意大利、卢森堡、保加利亚、南斯拉夫部分地区、俄罗斯、日本和美国之间的战争。战争从1914年持续到1918年末。它摧毁了奥匈帝国和爱沙尼亚这两个旧的多民族国家，并重新划分了欧洲版图。第二次世界大战从1939年持续到1945年，是一场更具国际性的战争。战争一方是德国、日本和意大利，另一方是美国、加拿大、大英帝国、欧洲大部分地区、包括中国在内的亚洲大部分地区、许多西太平洋国家以及苏维埃社会主义共和国联盟（苏联）。战争直接导致了以色列的建立以及朝鲜半岛和德国的分裂。第二次世界大战后，非洲和亚洲殖民地出现了民族主义高涨，20世纪60年代，一批非洲和亚洲国家摆脱了英法帝国的统治。

World War I was a war between Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Turkey on one side and Britain, France, Belgium, Italy, Luxembourg, Bulgaria, parts of Yugoslavia, Russia, Japan, and the United States on the other side. It lasted from 1914 to late in 1918. It tore down the old multinational states of Austria-Hungary and Estonia, and redrew other parts of the European map. Lasting from 1939 to 1945, World War II was a much more international war and was fought between Germany, Japan, and Italy on one side, and the United States, Canada, the British Empire, most of Europe, much of Asia including China, many of the Western Pacific countries, and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) on the other side. It led directly to the establishment of Israel, and the divisions of Korea and Germany. After World War II, a surge of nationalism took place in the colonial areas of Africa and Asia, and in the 1960s a number of African and Asian states emerged from the British and French empires.

从20世纪80年代末开始，又发生了一些剧烈的变化。苏联解体，苏联内部的政治分支，例如俄罗斯、格鲁吉亚、乌兹别克斯坦和乌克兰，都成为独立国家。东西柏林墙倒塌，东德和西德统一成为德国。其他东欧国家脱离俄罗斯，加入扩大后的欧盟，与西方紧密相连。20世纪后期，这些变化使美国成为世界唯一超级大国，但这一时期并不持久。随着欧洲经济的增长，欧盟日益发挥其独立实力，中国和印度则崛起成为未来的经济和潜在的政治超级大国。这些因素——加上伊斯兰国家的复兴，以及伊拉克、埃及和利比亚等阿拉伯国家政府的重大变化——表明21世纪初的世界很可能是一个艰难变革和权力共享的世界。

Beginning in the late 1980s, additional dramatic changes took place. The USSR broke up, and political subdivisions within the USSR, such as Russia, Georgia, Uzbekistan, and Ukraine, all became independent countries. The wall between East and West Berlin was torn down, and East and West Germany reunited to become one Germany. Other eastern European countries broke from Russia and became part of an expanded European Union, tying themselves with the West. In the late 1900s, these changes made the United States the worlds sole superpower, but that period was short-lived. As the European economies grew, the European Union increasingly exerted its independent power, and China and India emerged as future economic and likely political superpowers. These factors—combined with the reawakening of Islamic countries, and significant changes in government in Arab countries such as Iraq, Egypt, and Libya—indicate that the world in the early decades of the twenty-first century is likely to be one of difficult change and shared power.

一般问题

General Questions

1. 哪些发展使人类从流浪的狩猎者转变为居住在固定社区的居民？城镇的发展赋予了人们哪些责任和功能？
2. What are some of the developments that changed human beings from roving hunters to people living in fixed communities? What responsibilities and functions did the towns grow to provide?
3. 西方社会存在过哪些法律体系？您认为其中哪些条款在今天仍然适用？
4. What are some of the legal systems that have existed in Western society? Do you think any of their provisions have relevance today?
5. 哪些条件使得某些社会阶层变得富裕？您认为财富集中对社会性质来说是积极因素还是消极因素？
6. What conditions enabled certain classes of society to grow wealthy? Do you think concentrations of wealth were a positive or a negative factor for the nature of society?
7. 列举一些在西方社会发展过程中一直延续下来的人类特征。
8. Name some human characteristics that have persisted over time in the development of Western society.
9. 回顾您今天的生活，您能否发现一些可能源自希腊人的想法？源自罗马？源自中世纪？如果是，具体是哪几个时期？（如果你愿意，可以选择其他讨论过的时期，比如宗教改革和工业革命。）
10. In thinking about your life today, can you identify any ideas that may have come from the Greeks? From the Romans? From the Middle Ages? If so, what are they? (If you prefer, choose some of the other periods discussed, such as the Reformation and the Industrial Revolution.)
11. 中世纪时期，阿拉伯世界如何影响了西方社会的发展？您认为这与当今中东的局势有何相似之处？
12. How did the Arab world influence the development of Western society in the Middle Ages? Do you see any parallels with the situation in the Middle East today?
13. 农民从领主那里得到了什么？领主又得到了什么？你认为这是公平的交换吗？
14. What did the peasant get from the feudal lord, and what did the feudal lord get in return? Do you think it was a fair exchange?
15. 教堂如何影响中世纪的生活？它的影响力在文艺复兴时期有变化吗？
16. How did the church affect life in the Middle Ages? Did its influence change in the Renaissance?
17. 贸易和商业是如何发展的？如果你现在能买到的东西都是在你家十英里范围内种植或制造的，你觉得你的生活会是什么样子？
18. How did trade and commerce develop? What do you think your life would be like today if the only things you could buy were those that were grown or manufactured within ten miles of your house?
19. 工业革命彻底改变了什么？
20. What was revolutionized by the Industrial Revolution?
21. 列举一些改变西方社会进程的战争。你认为它们为什么会带来变革？
22. Name some of the wars that altered the course of Western society. Why do you think they led to change?
23. 列举一些在西方社会中成长起来的制度。它们如何改变当今社会？
24. Identify some of the institutions that have grown up in Western society. How are they changing society today?
25. 当今西方社会面临的最重要的问题是什么？您能想到什么解决方案？
26. What is the most important problem facing Western society today? What solutions can you think of?
27. 本章始终探讨穆斯林世界的影响。您认为这种影响在未来五十年将如何发展？
28. Throughout the chapter, the influence of the Muslim world has been brought into the discussion. How do you think this influence will play out during the next fifty years?

互联网问题

Internet Questions

1. 根据 Matthew Gabriele（www.Washingtonpost.com/opinions/5-myths-about-the-middleages/2016/09/22/e56c4150-7f50-lle6-90705c4905bf40dc_story.html?utm_term=.3a93ddba8f6b）的说法，中世纪的五大神话是什么？
2. According to Matthew Gabriele (www.Washingtonpost.com/opinions/5-myths-about-the-middleages/2016/09/22/e56c4150-7f50-lle6-90705c4905bf40dc_story.html?utm_term=.3a93ddba8f6b) what are five myths of the Middle Ages?
3. 请访问http://industrialrevolution.sea.ca/impact.html，了解工业革命的相关内容。工业革命期间，社会结构发生了哪些变化？
4. Go to http://industrialrevolution.sea.ca/impact.html and read about the Industrial Revolution. How did the social structure change during the Industrial Revolution?
5. 请访问www.eyewitnesstohistory.com/plague.htm阅读有关黑死病的文章。黑死病的症状是什么？当时人们是如何预防这种疾病的？
6. Read about the Black Death at www.eyewitnesstohistory.com/plague.htm. What were the symptoms? How did people try to avoid the disease?
7. 请访问www.thenagain.info/WebChron/WestEurope/AgeRevs.html。革命时代（1763-1848）的五个主要群体是什么？请选择一个群体，并列出其中的重要事件。
8. Goto www.thenagain.info/WebChron/WestEurope/AgeRevs.html. What are the five major groupings in the Age of Revolutions (1763-1848)? Pick one and list the important events.
9. 请访问https://classicalwisdom.com/politics/empires/the-rise-the-fall-and-the-mystery-of-the-mycenaeans/。了解迈锡尼人的古希腊文明。这个文明是如何衰落的？
10. Go to https://classicalwisdom.com/politics/empires/the-rise-the-fall-and-the-mystery-of-the-mycenaeans/. Read about the ancient Greek civilization of the Myceneans. How did this civilization fall?

值得探索的书籍

Books to Explore

• Acemoglu，Daron 和 James Robinson，《国家为何失败：权力、繁荣和贫困的起源》，纽约：Crowne Business，2012 年。
• Acemoglu, Daron, and James Robinson, Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty, New York: Crowne Business, 2012.
• 布伦德尔，苏，《希腊和罗马思想中的文明起源》，纽约：劳特利奇，2015 年。
• Blundell, Sue, The Origins of Civilization in Greek and Roman Thought, New York: Routledge, 2015.
• 鲍登，乔纳森·艾特，《西方文明的反击》，加利福尼亚州旧金山：Counter-Currents Publishing，2014 年。
• Bowden, Jonathan Et, Western Civilization Bites Back, San Francisco, CA: Counter-Currents Publishing, 2014.
• 戴利，乔纳森，《历史学家争论西方的崛起》，纽约：劳特利奇，2014 年。
• Daly, Jonathan, Historians Debate the Rise of the West, New York: Routledge, 2014.
• Diamond，Jared，《崩溃：社会如何选择失败或成功》，纽约：Viking，2005 年。
• Diamond, Jared, Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, New York: Viking, 2005.
• Diamond，Jared，《枪炮、病菌与钢铁：人类社会的命运》，纽约：诺顿，1997 年。
• Diamond, Jared, Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies, New York: Norton, 1997.
• 多林金德斯利出版公司员工，《大历史》，纽约：企鹅兰登书屋，2013 年。
• Dorling Kindersley Publishing Staff, Big History, New York: Penguin Random House, 2013.
• 哈里斯，李，《文明及其敌人：历史的下一阶段》，纽约：自由出版社，2004 年。
• Harris, Lee, Civilization and Its Enemies: The Next Stage of History, New York: Free Press, 2004.
• Heilbroner，R.，《世俗哲学家》，修订版，纽约：西蒙与舒斯特出版社，1980 年。
• Heilbroner, R., The Worldly Philosophers, rev. ed., New York: Simon & Schuster, 1980.
• 凯利，约翰，《大死亡：黑死病的私密历史——史上最具破坏性的瘟疫》，纽约：哈珀柯林斯出版社，2005 年。
• Kelly, John, The Great Mortality: An Intimate History of the Black Death, the Most Devastating Plague of All Time, New York: Harper Collins, 2005.
• 拉纳，约翰，《马可波罗与世界的发现》，康涅狄格州纽黑文：耶鲁大学出版社，1999 年。
• Larner, John, Marco Polo and the Discovery of the World, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1999.
• 刘易斯，彼得，《中世纪》，慕尼黑：Verlag CH Beck o HG，2015 年。
• Lewis, Peter, The Middle Ages, Munich: Verlag C. H. Beck o HG, 2015.
• 马戈利斯，霍华德，《一切始于哥白尼：彻底颠覆世界如何引发科学革命》，纽约：麦格劳希尔，2002 年。
• Margolis, Howard, It Started with Copernicus: How Turning the World Inside Out Led to the Scientific Revolution, New York: McGraw-Hill, 2002.
• 莫里斯，伊恩，《西方为何统治当今：历史模式及其对未来的启示》，纽约：法勒、斯特劳斯和吉鲁出版社，2011 年。
• Morris, Ian, Why the West Rules—For Now: The Patterns of History, and What They Reveal About the Future, New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 2011.

值得探索的网站

Internet Sites to Explore

• “ www.history.com/topics/middle-ages ”中世纪。
• “www.history.com/topics/middle-ages” Middle Ages.
• “ www.ancient.eu/Stone_Age ”石器时代。
• “www.ancient.eu/Stone_Age” Stone Age.
• “ www.khanacademy.org/humanities/ap-art-history/start-hereapah/brief-histories-apah/a/a-brief-history-of-western-culture ”西方文化简史。
• “www.khanacademy.org/humanities/ap-art-history/start-hereapah/brief-histories-apah/a/a-brief-history-of-western-culture” A Brief History of Western Culture.
• “ www.ancient-greece.org/resources/timeline.html ”古希腊时间表。
• “www.ancient-greece.org/resources/timeline.html” Timeline of Ancient Greece.
• “ www.exovedate.com/ancient_timeline_one.html ”古罗马时间表。
• “www.exovedate.com/ancient_timeline_one.html” Timeline of Ancient Rome.

多元文化主义

Multiculturalism

美国并非单一文化，而是多种亚文化交织交织，相互重叠。例如，黑人文化与西班牙裔文化不同，西班牙裔文化与犹太文化不同，犹太文化与美国中西部乡村文化也不同，等等。这些不同文化的融合并非总是一帆风顺，有时甚至会造成破坏。嘻哈音乐、古典音乐和乡村音乐无法构成一首交响乐。尽管如此，美国各种亚文化之间的相似之处却相互交织，使得我们能够称之为一种单一的美国文化，而它实际上是各种亚文化的综合体。

The United States does not have a single culture, but instead has a blend of overlapping subcultures. For example, black culture is different from Hispanic culture, which is different from Jewish culture, which is different from rural midwestern culture, and so on. The blending of these various cultures is not always smooth, and at times is disruptive. Hip-hop, classical, and country music do not a symphony make. Nonetheless, the similarities of the various US subcultures hold together, and allow us to speak of a single US culture, which actually is a composite of various subcultures.

关于文化的政治辩论往往集中在政府应该支持单一文化主义还是多元文化主义。从技术上讲，单一文化主义强调亚文化的共同点，而多元文化主义则强调亚文化之间的差异性。然而， “多元文化主义”一词的含义已经发生了一些变化。具体来说，该词在 20 世纪 80 年代被用来强调大多数大学课程反映了欧洲中心主义的偏见，而忽视了其他美国亚文化。因此，支持多元文化主义就是反对大学课程中的欧洲中心主义偏见。当术语成为政治辩论的一部分时，单一文化主义和多元文化主义经常被视为对立的。我们不这么认为。我们认为两者都是可以支持的。具体来说，如果将美国的单一文化理解为致力于多元化——即文化多样性是好的价值观——那么两者之间就不会有矛盾。这场辩论仅仅是为了找到正确的结合点。单一文化主义的优势在于共享的文化往往能将社会凝聚在一起；多元文化主义的优势在于它融合了多样性，让各个群体尊重自己的历史，并将历史视为更大文化的坚实基石。

Political debates about culture often focus on whether the government should support monoculturalism or multiculturalism. Technically, monoculturaUsm emphasizes the shared aspects of subcultures, whereas multiculturalism emphasizes the differences among subcultures. However, the term multiculturalism has developed a somewhat different meaning. Specihcally, the term was used in the 1980s as a way to emphasize that most university curricula reflected a Eurocentric bias at the expense of other US subcultures. Thus, to support multiculturalism was to be against the Eurocentric bias in university curriculums. As often happens when terms become part of a political debate, monoculturalism and multiculturalism were seen as opposites. We don’t see it that way. We see both as supportable. Specifically, if the US monoculture were understood as being committed to pluralism—the value that cultural diversity is good—there would be no contradiction between the two. The debate is simply about getting the right mix. The advantage of monoculturalism is that shared culture tends to hold society together; the advantage of multiculturalism is that it incorporates diversity and lets subgroups revere their own history and view that history as a strong building block of the larger culture.

文化中的共同信仰

The Shared Beliefs in Culture

文化是一个非常模糊的概念，难以理解。或许理解文化最简单的方法就是回答以下几个问题：

Culture is an enormously vague concept that is difficult to grasp. Perhaps the easiest way to understand culture is to answer a few questions:

1. 十一至十五岁的孩子应该与父母睡在同一张床上吗？
2. Should children, age eleven to fifteen, sleep in the same beds as their parents?
3. 是否应该允许女性开车？
4. Should women be allowed to drive?
5. 女性应该接受割礼吗？
6. Should females be circumcised?
7. 人们应该在公共海滩穿泳衣吗？
8. Should people wear swimming suits on public beaches?

我们怀疑，来自美国的你们中的大多数对问题（1）否、（2）是、（3）否和（4）是的回答。我们为什么怀疑这一点？因为你们来自共同的文化。但如果你来自其他国家，或者美国不受主流美国文化影响的地区，你的答案可能会有所不同。例如，根据理查德·施韦德在其著作《男人为什么烧烤？文化多样性食谱》中的说法，在马里和索马里，许多女性对不给女性行割礼的想法感到厌恶。同样，在沙特阿拉伯，一些女性认为女性开车是不合适的。然而，持有这种观点的女性和男性的数量一直在下降，2017 年，沙特阿拉伯政府推翻了禁止女性开车的法律。还有很多例子，但这些足以让你了解文化是如何成为一个社会的共同信仰的。

Most of you from the United States, we suspect, answered the questions (1) no, (2) yes, (3) no, and (4) yes. Why do we suspect that? Because you come from a shared culture. But if you were from another country, or a part of the United States that is not affected by mainstream US culture, your answers would likely be different. For example, according to Richard Shweder in his book, Why Do Men Barbecue? Recipes for Cultural Diversity, in Mali and Somalia many women are repulsed by the idea of not circumcising women. Similarly, in Saudi Arabia some women see it as simply inappropriate for a woman to drive. However, the number of women and men who hold this view has been falling and in 2017, the Saudi Arabian government overturned the law prohibiting women from driving. Many more examples could be provided, but these should be sufficient to give you a sense of how culture is the shared beliefs of a society.

文化及其在人类社会中的作用

Culture and Its Role in Human Societies

文化的定义存在诸多方面，难以准确定义。但我们先前的定义或许最为贴切。文化是一个社会成员所遵循的生活方式。它涵盖所有知识、信仰、艺术、道德、法律、习俗以及人类作为社会成员所获得的其他能力。

There is a problem in precisely defining culture because it has a variety of aspects. But our earlier definition of it is probably the best. Culture is the way of life that the people of a society follow. It includes all knowledge, beliefs, art, morals, laws, customs, and any other capabilities acquired by a human being as a member of society.

简而言之，文化是人类行为及其产物的总模式，体现在思想、言语、行动和人工制品中。文化也依赖于通过使用工具、语言和抽象思维系统进行学习的能力。

In short, culture is the total pattern of human behavior and its products embodied in thought, speech, action, and artifacts. Culture is also dependent on the capacity for learning through the use of tools, language, and systems of abstract thought.

正如你所见，一个社会的文化涵盖了其成员生活中所有源于人类的事物——即他们通过与他人直接或间接接触而习得的一切。它包括日常生活中的习惯行为方式、宗教信仰、道德标准、家庭生活的组织方式、提供食物和住所的方式、语言、政府以及艺术表达形式。

As you can see, the culture of a society includes everything of human origin in the lives of its members—that is, everything they learn through their direct or indirect contacts with other people. It includes the customary ways of behaving in everyday life, religious beliefs, moral standards, the way family life is organized, the methods used to provide food and shelter, language, government, and forms of artistic expression.

文化元素

The Elements of Culture

文化只有通过人类的交往才能发展，因此以社会为前提；同时，文化也是人类社会得以存在的基础。只有当人们在一定程度上发展出共同的文化时，他们才能作为一个有组织的群体发挥作用，因为只有这样，他们才知道彼此应该期待什么，以及如何行动才能满足群体的需求。社会之所以能够存在，是因为人类有能力创造文化，并且同样重要的是，有能力与同时代的人分享文化，并将其传承给后代。文化创造社会，社会依赖于文化。简而言之，文化体现了社会规范（习俗、习俗和法律）和制度，以及社会的技术、物质产品和价值观。图4.1展示了社会赖以生存的文化要素。让我们简要地探讨一下文化的一些要素。

Culture develops only through the association of human beings and thus presupposes society; at the same time, culture is what makes a human society possible. Only when people develop in some degree a common culture can they function as an organized group, for only then do they know what to expect of one another and how to behave to meet the requirements of the group. A society can exist because human beings have the capacity for creating culture and, what is equally important, for sharing it with their contemporaries and transmitting it to succeeding generations. Culture creates societies and societies depend on culture. In short, culture embodies social norms (its conventions, mores, and laws) and institutions, together with a society’s technology, its material products, and its values. Figure 4.1 presents the elements of culture upon which society rests. Let us consider briefly some of the elements of culture.

社会规范：习俗、民情和法律习俗是一个群体的简单的日常风俗，代表着通常的行为方式。习俗变化得很慢，其中许多习俗非常持久。在我们的社会中，睡在床上、在餐桌上吃饭、用刀、叉和勺子吃东西以及在街上和熟人打招呼都是习惯或惯例。所有这些都是习俗。习俗是既定的习俗，我们很少赋予其道德意义。我们可能认为，习俗与我们不同的人本身就不同，但我们会尝试理解这些差异，而不是因为他们的差异而排斥他们。例如，我们可能会对剃光头的女人感到好奇，但我们的社会实践是尝试表现得好像我们没有注意到任何异常。

Social Norms: Conventions, Mores, and Laws Conventions are the simple, everyday customs of a group that represent the usual ways of behaving. Conventions change slowly, and many of them are very persistent. In our society, it is customary or conventional to sleep on a bed; to eat at a table; to handle our food with knives, forks, and spoons; and to greet an acquaintance on the street. All these are conventions. Conventions are established customs to which we attach little moral significance. We may think that people whose conventions are different from ours are themselves different, but we try to understand those differences, not ostracize people because of their differences. For example, we will probably wonder about a woman who shaves her head, but our social practice will be to try to act as if we notice nothing unusual.

习俗（发音为mor-rays）是指违反后将产生严重后果的习俗。这些习俗包括社会所有成员普遍遵守的风俗习惯，以确保文化的延续。无视习俗的人通常被视为古怪或反常——他们的性格定义更是怪异至极。虽然违反社会习俗不一定会入狱，但会以同伴的反对形式遭受社会惩罚。例如，一位理赔员出现在去保险公司办理保险，并且完全脱光衣服，会违反社会习俗，即使没有因猥亵暴露而被捕，也会面临非正式的惩罚。另一方面，穿着便装参加婚宴的人，仅仅违反了一项习俗。

Mores (pronounced mor-rays) are conventions that would have serious consequences if they were violated. They include those customs that must generally be observed by all members of a society for the culture to survive. People who disregard mores are usually seen as more than slightly odd or eccentric—their character definitions are beyond weird. Although a violation of a society’s mores would not necessarily land a person in jail, it would incur social punishment in the form of peer disapproval. For example, a claims adjuster who showed up at the insurance office and completely disrobed would have violated one of society’s mores and, even if not arrested for indecent exposure, would nevertheless face informal punishment. On the other hand, a person who wears informal clothing to a wedding reception is merely violating a convention.

与习俗和惯例（它们仅仅是人们理解的规范群体行为的习惯）相比，法律更为精确，通常被记录、编纂和执行，作为确保公众服从的手段。法律是由某个权威机构在一个社区内制定的、适用于其人民的原则和规章，可以是立法形式，也可以是经司法判决认可和执行的政策形式。违反法律可能会给违法者带来严厉的惩罚和/或后果。超速行驶只会被处以小额罚款，而预谋杀人则可能被判处死刑，至少在某些州是这样。不同社会对违法行为的定义和处罚各不相同。例如，在一些伊斯兰社会，女性在公共场合不遮盖面部可能是违法的，偷窃可能会被处以断手的惩罚。在美国，没有关于遮盖面部的法律，偷窃最多只会被判入狱。

In contrast to mores and conventions, which are merely customs taken as understood in governing the conduct of the group, laws are more exact, and are generally recorded, codified, and enforced as a means of securing public obedience. Laws are the principles and regulations established in a community by some authority and applicable to its people, whether in the form of legislation or of policies recognized and enforced by judicial decision. Violations of laws may carry severe punishments and/or ramifications for the offender. Being caught speeding results in a small fine, whereas premeditated murder may be punishable, at least in some states, by death. What is against the law and the punishment for violation of laws vary in different societies. For example, in some Islamic societies it may be against the law for a woman to appear in public with her face uncovered, and stealing may be punished by the loss of one’s hand. In the United States, there are no laws about covering one’s face, and stealing results in a jail sentence at most.

社会制度 社会制度是一种既定的复杂行为模式，许多人参与其中，以促进重要的群体利益。制度通常围绕某些核心利益或需求而组织。例如，政府为个人提供必要的秩序和协调。学校为年轻人提供正规教育，而家庭作为所有社会制度中最基本的机构之一，帮助满足日常生活中的许多需求，例如住所、食物、亲密陪伴和情感。教堂、寺庙、清真寺和犹太教堂等机构使人们能够通过与他人一起按照既定仪式崇拜一个或多个神灵来表达自己的宗教信仰。社会制度不仅提供秩序和协调，而且还促进社会变革。例如，宗教团体在美国民权运动中发挥了重要作用，这场运动迫使美国社会更加平等地对待非裔美国人，并废除了一些公然歧视性的法律。

Social Institutions A social institution is an established complex pattern of behavior in which a number of persons participate in order to further important group interests. Institutions are usually organized around some central interest or need. The government, for example, provides the necessary order and coordination among individuals. The school provides for formal education of the young, while the family, one of the most basic of all social institutions, helps meet many of the needs of daily life, such as those for shelter, food, close companionship, and affection. The church, temple, mosque, and synagogue are the institutions that enable people to express their religious beliefs by joining others in worshipping a deity or deities in established rituals. Social institutions not only provide order and coordination, but they also provide for social change. For example, religious groups played a significant role in the civil rights movement in the United States, a movement that forced US society to treat African Americans more equitably and to remove some of its blatantly discriminatory laws.

物质产品严格来说，文化从来都不是物质的。它存在于人们的思想和个性中，是人们从社会环境中习得的东西——态度、信仰、知识和行为方式。然而，在每一种文化中，关于如何生产和使用各种物质产品（包括食物、衣服、房屋、工具、机器和艺术品）的知识都至关重要。文化物品（人工制品）是人类技艺和努力的产物，对社会的运转至关重要。文化物品不仅仅是创造它们的文化的表达；它们之所以对社会的运转至关重要，是因为没有它们，人们就无法进行日常生活的必要活动。这在现代工业社会中尤为明显。如果这样的社会不能使用计算机、飞机、汽车和卡车、电话、发电厂、工厂及其机器、超市和快餐店等等，它就会陷入瘫痪。

Material Products Strictly speaking, culture is never material. It is in the minds and personalities of people. It is what they have learned from their social environment—attitudes, beliefs, knowledge, and ways of behaving. However, in every culture, knowledge of how to produce and use a variety of material products, including food, clothing, houses, tools, machines, and works of art, is important. Cultural objects (artifacts) are products of human skill and effort that are essential to the functioning of a society. Cultural objects are more than mere expressions of the culture that produces them; they become essential to its functioning because without them people could not carry on the necessary activities of daily life. This is strikingly true in a modern industrial society. Such a society would be paralyzed if it could not use computers, airplanes, cars and trucks, telephones, power plants, factories and their machines, supermarkets, and fast-food outlets, to name a few.

语言 语言是词汇的集合，以及同一社群或民族、同一地理区域或同一文化传统的人们共同使用的词汇体系。语言是人类社会和文化的内在组成部分。本杰明·李·沃尔夫认为，每一种特定的语言都体现并传播着一种世界观。因此，使用同一种语言的群体会以相同的文化基调进行交流。文化假设和观察结果被固化在一个社会的语言中。例如，多语言人群之间的交流会传递不同社会之间的文化差异。

Language Language is a body of words and the system for their use common to a people of the same community or nation, the same geographical area, or the same cultural tradition. Language is intrinsic in the societies and cultures of humans. Benjamin Lee Whorf argued that each particular language embodies and propagates a worldview. Groups of people speaking the same language, therefore, communicate in the same cultural tone. Cultural assumptions and observations are locked into a society’s language. For instance, communication between multilingual people transmits cultural differences between societies.

语言在文化的发展和传播中发挥着核心作用。它促进沟通，而沟通对于协调活动至关重要。它使不同文化能够保存和传播其历史知识。书写使语言有了更多的用途，拓展了其存储和积累知识的能力。书写使文化得以保存并以更广泛的方式传承。但语言也带来了局限性。语言的结构影响着个人看待问题的方式，因此可能包含许多隐藏的偏见。

Language plays a central role in the development and transmission of culture. It allows communication, which is essential for the coordination of activities. It allows cultures to save and transmit a knowledge of their history. Writing allows many further uses of language, widening its ability to store and accumulate knowledge. Writing allows cultures to be preserved and passed on in expanded ways. But language also creates limitations. The structure of the language influences the way individuals look at issues and can therefore incorporate many hidden biases.

社会价值观社会价值观是推动机构有效运作的动力。社会价值观是特定社会所珍视的事物，因为人们相信它们有助于改善生活和增进普遍福祉。在我们的文化环境中，诚实、勇气、正义以及尊重法律和他人权利都是备受推崇的社会价值观。经济成功、健康和教育也同样如此，只不过程度略有不同。

Social Values Social values are the motivating power that makes institutions function effectively. They are the things that a given society considers desirable because they are believed to contribute to a good life and the general welfare. In our cultural environment, honesty, courage, justice, and respect for law and for the rights of others are highly regarded social values. So also, on a somewhat different level, are financial success, health, and education.

个人的欲望往往反映其所属社会所强调的价值观。美国社会常被说成是一个物质主义社会。这种描述或许并非完全正确，但也不无道理。在现代美国，我们高度推崇商业、娱乐和体育领域的成功，并高度重视提高生活水平和消除贫困。正因为我们如此重视物质福利，许多人开始将赚取越来越多的金钱视为人生的主要目标。当然，其他人仅仅将金钱视为实现更重要目标的一种手段。这些更重要的目标可能涉及一些“更高”的社会价值观，例如子女的教育；慈善事业；对艺术、科学和宗教的欣赏和鼓励；以及提供公共服务。

Individuals’ desires tend to reflect the values stressed in the societies to which they belong. Society in the United States is often said to be materialistic. This may not be a wholly correct characterization; yet it contains an element of truth. In our modern United States, we have great respect for success in business, entertainment, and sports, and we place great emphasis on the importance of raising standards of living and abolishing poverty. Because we put such a high value on material welfare, many of our people have come to regard the earning of more and more money as their major life objective. Others, of course, look on money merely as a means to achieve more important objectives. These more important objectives may involve such “higher” social values as the education of one’s children; charity; the appreciation and encouragement of art, science, and religion; and the rendering of public service.

社会价值观使机构有效运作。例如，教堂、寺庙、清真寺或犹太教堂，只有当其大部分成员坚信至高无上的存在或精神导师，并相信其宗教组织是灵魂成长和构建美好社会的重要工具时，才能成为社会中一股活跃的力量。当宗教对社会产生强大影响时，它通常是一种倾向于维护既定道德价值观的保守力量。

Social values make institutions function effectively. The church, temple, mosque, or synagogue, for instance, will be a dynamic force in society only as long as a large portion of their members firmly believe in a supreme being or spiritual guide and have faith that their religious organization is an essential instrument for the growth of the soul and the creation of a good society. Where religion has a strong hold on a society, it is usually a conservative force tending to preserve established moral values.

社会价值观是相对的，而非绝对的。它们往往在不同文化之间差异巨大，每个人都会从自身文化中习得对可取与不可取、善恶与对错的观念。在某些社会中，婚前性行为被视为大罪；而在另一些社会中，婚前性行为则是被允许的，甚至是被期待的。在某些社会中，女性必须非常丰满才算美丽；而在另一些社会中，她们必须相当苗条。在大多数（即便不是所有）现代社会中，杀婴被视为令人恐惧的行为，但在少数部落社会中，在某些情况下——例如，如果婴儿有身体残疾——杀婴则被视为值得称赞的行为。

Social values are relative rather than absolute. They often vary widely from one culture to another, and each individual acquires from his or her own culture ideas of what is desirable or undesirable, good or bad, right or wrong. In some societies, sexual relations before marriage are regarded as a cardinal sin; in others, they are permitted or even expected. In some societies, women must be very plump to be regarded as beautiful; in others, they must be rather slim. In most if not in all modern societies, the killing of infants is regarded with horror, but a few tribal societies see it as commendable under certain circumstances—for instance, if the infants have physical disabilities.

流行的社会变革理论

Popular Theories of Social Change

人类倾向于美化过去。有些人坚信，他们青春和童年的美好时光远胜于现在。最早的社会变革理论之一来自一些希腊哲学家，他们认为人类曾经生活在一个理想的黄金时代。从这个时代开始，我们逐渐走向白银时代，然后是青铜时代，最后是铁器时代。

Human beings have a tendency to glorify the past. Some become firmly convinced that the good old days of their youth and childhood were far superior to the present. One of the earliest theories of social change was held by certain Greek philosophers who believed that humankind once lived in an ideal golden age. From this, we gradually descended to a silver, then a bronze, and finally an iron age.

过去一两个世纪里，欧美盛行着一种截然相反的社会变革理论。这就是“进步必然”的信条，相信世界正在变得越来越好。即使是两次世界大战和无数次小规模战争，也无法动摇那些坚定信奉这一信条的人的信念。

A quite opposite theory of social change has been popular in Europe and the United States in the last century or two. This is the doctrine of inevitable progress, the belief that the world is getting better and better. Not even two world wars and a multitude of smaller wars have been able to shake the faith of those who firmly hold this doctrine.

奥斯瓦尔德·斯宾格勒和阿诺德·汤因比推广的另一种社会变革理论认为，变革具有周期性。根据他们的理论，制度、社会和文明都会经历增长、高潮和衰落的循环。现代文明也不例外，最终也注定要瓦解。这种社会变革周期理论基于历史重演的理念。一些周期理论家认为，现代文明正处于衰落的边缘，他们以某些古代文明的命运为例来佐证这一观点，包括古希腊和罗马帝国。周期理论的差异很大，但它们都倾向于支持这样的论点：文明首先进步，最终达到顶峰，最后衰落。

Another theory of social change, popularized by Oswald Spengler and Arnold Toynbee, is that such change runs in cycles. According to their theory, institutions, societies, and civilizations pass through cycles of growth, climax, and decline. Modern civilization is no exception and is bound ultimately to disintegrate. This cycle theory of social change is based on the idea that history repeats itself. Some cycle theorists maintain that modern civilization is now on the verge of a decline, and to support this contention they point to the fate of certain past civilizations, including ancient Greece and the Roman Empire. Cycle theories vary considerably, but they all tend to support the thesis that civilizations first advance, ultimately reach a peak, and finally decline.

其他解释社会变革的尝试依赖于超自然力量、种族特征、经济条件、文化传播或发明创造。然而，任何特定的文化都是由太多因素共同作用的结果，任何简单的公式都无法充分解释。但有一点是肯定的：变革不可避免。无论身处何方，人类与环境的关系都是动态的，而这种动态关系又会产生变化。

Other attempts to explain social change have relied on the supernatural, racial characteristics, economic conditions, cultural diffusion, or invention. Any given culture, however, is the result of too many factors to be explained adequately by any simple formula. Yet one thing is sure: Change is inevitable. Humans’ relationship to their environment is dynamic, no matter where they live, and this dynamic relationship produces change.

导致文化变迁的因素

Factors Causing Cultural Change

现在，我们将探讨一些引发文化变迁的重要社会力量，以及这些变迁所带来的问题。我们首先讨论技术发展；然后探讨宗教、意识形态、文化传播、战争、有计划的群体行动、地理和气候等因素的作用。

We now look at some of the most important social forces that cause cultural change, together with the problems that change has brought about. We begin with a discussion of technological development; then we examine the role of religion, ideologies, cultural diffusion, wars, planned group action, geography, and climate.

技术发展技术发展始于发现和发明。发现是指对物理或社会环境的某种前所未有的了解。过去，探险家发现了新的岛屿和大陆，天文学家发现了天体运动的规律，人类学家发现了不同前文字时代文化之间许多有趣的差异。关于自然界的发现常常为发明创造提供基础。例如，一些伟大的科学家对电的发现，使托马斯·爱迪生得以发明白炽电灯泡和其他有用的设备。

Technological Development Technological development begins with discovery and invention. A discovery is something learned about the physical or social environment that was not known before. In the past, explorers have discovered new islands and continents, astronomers have discovered laws that regulate the motions of the heavenly bodies, and anthropologists have discovered many interesting differences between the cultures of preliterate peoples. Discoveries about the natural world often furnish the basis for inventions. For example, the discoveries about electricity from some of the great scientists made it possible for Thomas Edison to invent the incandescent electric lightbulb and other useful devices.

发明是一种新的做事方式，或是为了特定目的而开发的新物品或机械装置。它是由一个社会群体中的一个或多个个体成员发明的文化创新。发明可以是物质的，也可以是非物质的。像割草机和飞机这样常见的机器就是物质发明。养老保险和轮作则是非物质发明的例子。所有非物质发明中最伟大的一项是拉丁字母，它使得我们今天的书写和印刷体系成为可能。

An invention is a new way of doing something or a new object or mechanical device developed to serve some specific purpose. It is a cultural innovation devised by one or several individual members of a social group. Inventions may be either material or nonmaterial. Familiar machines such as the lawn tractor and the airplane are material inventions. Old-age insurance and crop rotation are examples of nonmaterial inventions. One of the greatest of all nonmaterial inventions was the Latin alphabet, which made possible our present system of writing and printing.

发明实际上是一种特殊的发现，因此两者之间没有明确的界限。我们可以把用燧石撞击取火的过程称为发现，也可以把发明称为发明。所有机械发明都涉及到这样一个发现：材料以某种方式组合和使用会产生特定的预期结果。发明带来了技术的变革，在现代社会中，技术变革一直是社会变革背后的强大力量。

An invention is really a special kind of discovery, and hence no sharp line can be drawn between the two. We can call the making of fire by striking together flint stones either a discovery or an invention. All mechanical inventions involve the discovery that materials combined and used in certain ways will produce certain desired results. Inventions bring about changes in technology, and in modern societies technological change has been a powerful force behind social change.

一个很好的例子就是计算机，它正在从多方面改变我们的生活方式和文化。计算机化的机器人正在取代许多工作岗位上的工人，微型机器人正在被开发用于医疗用途，互联网正在改变我们购物和与他人沟通的方式。同样，生物技术的发展也在改变我们的生活，并且很快可能让我们能够选择孩子的性格特征并影响医疗治疗。

A good example is the computer, which is changing our lifestyle and culture in many ways. Computerized robots are replacing workers in many jobs, tiny robots are being developed for medical uses, and the Internet is changing the way we shop and communicate with others. Similarly, developments in biotechnology are changing our lives and soon may make it possible for us to choose characteristics for our children and to influence medical treatment.

事实上，有人认为科技和信息时代不仅改变了我们的文化，更正在创造一种全新的文化。互联网催生了一个自主社会，世界各地的人们在这里互动，共同构建了数字世界的社会规范和惯例。这种网络文化并非基于地理上的接近，而是由独特的词汇、根植的制度、共同的历史和共同的价值观所凝聚。数十亿人不分国籍，每天在网上构建的社群正在改变我们对文化在日益全球化的世界中扮演的角色的看法。

In fact, some would argue that technology and the information age are not just changing our culture, but are creating a new culture entirely. The Internet has enabled the birth of an autonomous society, where people all over the world interact to form the social norms and conventions of a digital world. Instead of being based on geographical proximity, this online culture is united by a unique vocabulary, anchoring institutions, a common history, and shared values. The community fostered online every day between billions of people regardless of nationality is changing the way that we see the role of culture in our increasingly globalized world.

技术变革对于理解社会变得如此重要，以至于我们用整整一章（第 6 章）来更深入地探讨这些问题。

Technological change has become so important to understanding society that we devote an entire chapter, Chapter 6, to a deeper consideration of the issues.

文化传播：一旦一种新的文化元素在一个社会中根深蒂固，它就可能传播到其他社会。文化传播是指文化特征从一个社会群体传播到另一个社会群体。换句话说，并非所有特定群体文化中的元素都是在该群体内部发明或发展起来的。在大多数情况下，任何文化的大部分内容都是从其他文化中借鉴而来。在大多数社会中，文化传播是社会变革中极其重要的因素。与外界隔绝的社会往往处于停滞状态，而那些能够与其他群体轻松沟通的社会则会不断获得新的文化元素。然而，接触并不总是导致文化传播。例如，美国的阿米什人社会与美国主流文化有着密切的接触。尽管存在这种接触，阿米什人社会仍然通过刻意的划分保持着其独特的文化身份，并回避了许多现代科技发展。

Cultural Diffusion Once a new cultural element is well established in one society, it may spread to others. Cultural diffusion is the name given to the spread of cultural traits from one social group to another. In other words, not all the elements found in the culture of a given group were invented or developed within that group. In most cases, the greater part of the content of any culture has been borrowed from other cultures. In most societies, cultural diffusion is an extremely important factor in social change. Societies isolated from outside contacts tend to be static, whereas those that can readily communicate with other groups constantly acquire new cultural elements. However, contact does not always lead to cultural diffusion. For example, the Amish society in the United States has significant contact with mainstream US culture. Despite this contact, Amish society has maintained its separate cultural identity through deliberate delineation and has shunned many modern technological developments.

文化传播比任何其他因素都更能促进西方文明的发展。西方文明孕育于欧洲，其中心至今仍在那里。然而，这种文明的大部分基本要素并非源自欧洲，而是从世界其他地区的其他民族借鉴而来。我们现代的数字系统比罗马的数字系统灵活得多，它借鉴自阿拉伯人，而阿拉伯人又从印度的印度教徒那里借鉴而来。如果没有这种数字系统或一个有效的替代品，我们几乎不可能进行如今商业和科学所需的数学计算。同样，我们的字母表，经过修改后用于所有欧洲语言的书写和印刷，最初是从非洲的腓尼基人那里借鉴而来的。他们，或者操着类似闪米特语的邻近民族，很可能是最初的发明者^。2

Cultural diffusion, more than any other factor, has been responsible for the development of Western civilization. Western civilization was nurtured in Europe, and its center is still there. Yet most of the basic elements of this civilization did not originate in Europe but were borrowed from other peoples in other parts of the world. Our modern number system, so much more flexible than that of the Romans, was borrowed from the Arabs, who in turn borrowed it from the Hindus in India. Without this number system or a good substitute, it would be almost impossible for us to carry on the mathematical calculations now required by both business and science. Again, our alphabet, which with modifications is used for writing and printing all European languages, was borrowed originally from the Phoenicians of Africa. It seems probable that they, or a neighboring people speaking a similar Semitic language, were the original inventors.²

思想与意识形态社会变革也可能由新思想引发。相对简单、实用的思想可能会催生出一些发明，这些发明很快就会被接受，并成为文化模式中公认的组成部分——例如一种新型舞蹈、一种新型商业公司或一种新型机械装置。然而，并非所有新思想都属于此类。有些新思想代表着社会态度和基本社会价值观的重大变化。这些思想最终可能会在人们的思想中产生强大的影响力，就像法国大革命时期的“自由、平等、博爱”理念，或20世纪60年代美国的民权运动一样。它们往往代表着希望和抱负，尽管这些希望和抱负永远无法完全实现，但可以通过多种方式去实现。一旦这类思想在任何社会中根深蒂固，它们就会成为推动社会变革的强大力量，朝着人们认为能够实现的方向发展。宗教体现了人们对善恶的理解，往往是社会变革的重要力量。例如，正如我们之前所说，宗教团体在民权运动中发挥了重要作用，21 世纪初，一些福音派基督教会在堕胎和外交政策等各种问题上向政府施加压力。

Ideas and Ideologies Social change may also be initiated by new ideas. Relatively simple, practical ideas may result in inventions that soon are accepted and become a recognized part of the cultural pattern—a new type of dance, a new kind of business corporation, or a new mechanical gadget. However, not all new ideas are of this type. Some represent important changes in social attitudes and basic social values. Such ideas may in time gain a powerful hold on minds, as did the concepts of “liberty, equality, and fraternity” of the French Revolution, or the civil rights movement in the United States in the 1960s. Often they come to represent hopes and aspirations that, though they can never be fully realized, can be approached in a variety of ways. Once ideas of this kind become well established in any society, they become a powerful force for continuing social change in directions that are thought to lead toward their realization. Religions, which embody peoples conception of what is good and what is bad, often are vital forces for social change. For example, as we stated earlier, religious groups played an important role in the civil rights movement, and in the early 2000s some Evangelical Christian churches were exerting pressure on the government on issues as diverse as abortion and foreign policy.

即使在现代世界，重大的新思想通常也需要相当长的时间才能站稳脚跟。许多作家认为，社会变革总是受到上一代伟大思想家的发现或理论的推动。例如，卡尔·马克思在世时对社会影响甚微；英国经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯在20世纪30年代提出的经济思想直到20世纪60年代才对公众或政府政策产生重大影响。

Even in the modern world, it usually takes considerable time for major new ideas to gain a firm foothold. Various writers have maintained that social change is always motivated by the discoveries or theories of great thinkers of a past generation. Karl Marx, for example, had little effect on society during his lifetime; British economist John Maynard Keynes’s economic ideas of the 1930s did not have any great impact on the public or on government policies until the 1960s.

意识形态是一种有组织的思想体系，旨在重塑社会，使其“更贴近内心的渴望”。我们可以将其视为思想、价值观和情感的综合体。信奉某种意识形态的人往往以宗教般的热情支持它。法西斯主义、共产主义、社会主义和民主都是意识形态。每种意识形态都有其价值体系，并且每种意识形态都会按照略有不同的模式来组织社会——据称是为了促进共同利益。没有任何一种意识形态能够实现其拥护者所设想的理想社会。我们认为美国社会是民主的，但我们常常敏锐地意识到，我们在很多方面都未能达到民主的理想。

An ideology is an organized system of ideas for remodeling society to bring it “nearer to the heart’s desire.” We may regard it as a composite of ideas, values, and emotions. Those who believe in an ideology often support it with religious fervor. Fascism, communism, socialism, and democracy are all ideologies. Each has its system of values, and each would organize society—supposedly to further the common good—according to a somewhat different pattern. No ideology ever achieves the ideal society that its adherents envision. We regard our US society as democratic, but we often are keenly aware that we fall short of the democratic ideal in many ways.

集体行动大多数社会变革都是渐进式发生的，并非由某个中央机构策划和执行。然而，有时重要的社会变革却或多或少地由有计划的集体行动迅速促成。整个社会（例如一个现代国家）的集体行动通常意味着政府行动，因为政府是唯一能够制定和执行理论上适用于整个社会群体的规则的机构。

Collective Action Most social changes take place gradually and are not planned and carried out by a central agency At times, however, social changes of importance are brought about more or less rapidly by planned group action. Group action by an entire society, such as a modern nation, usually means government action, because the government is the only agency that can make and enforce rules that in theory apply to the whole social group.

日本是一个在过去150年里经历了巨大社会变革的国家。它从一个封建社会转变为一个高度工业化的现代民主社会。这种变革很大程度上这是由政府为使日本融入现代世界而制定的政策所推动的。

Japan is a nation that has experienced a great social transformation within the past 150 years. It has changed from a feudal society to a modern, highly industrialized democracy. Much of this change has been brought about by government policies that were specifically designed to bring Japan into the modern world.

二十世纪政府大规模推行的剧烈而深远的社会变革的杰出典范，可追溯至前苏联和中国。这两个国家是世界上幅员辽阔、人口最多的国家。共产党领导人上台后，在相对较短的时间内彻底改变了政治、社会和经济结构的许多基本方面。为了建立以卡尔·马克思的共产主义意识形态为基础的社会，国家从中上层阶级所有者手中夺取了巨额财产，将数百万农民从其土地上赶走，让他们到集体农场或公社工作，并接管了几乎所有生产企业的运营和扩张。然而，如此广泛而迅速的变革，只有通过建立强大的独裁政权，才能实现，而这些独裁政权对个人的权利和自由漠不关心。

The outstanding twentieth-century examples of drastic and far-reaching social changes carried out by governments on a vast scale are found in the former Soviet Union and in China. There, in two of the largest and most populous countries of the world, when the communist leaders came into power, they completely changed in a relatively short time many basic aspects of the political, social, and economic structure. In an attempt to create societies based on the communist ideology of Karl Marx, the state seized vast amounts of property from the middleand upper-class owners, uprooted millions of peasants from their holdings and put them to work on collective farms or communes, and took over the operation and expansion of practically all productive enterprises. But the achievement of such broad and rapid changes was possible only through the establishment of powerful dictatorships that had small regard for the rights and freedoms of individuals.

20世纪90年代，许多共产主义独裁政权垮台。东欧经历了剧烈的动荡。一些共产主义政权被推翻；苏联解体为多个国家；所有这些国家都经历了巨大的政治、社会和经济变革。2011年，中东地区经历了剧烈的社会动荡，这场运动被称为“阿拉伯之春”。阿拉伯人民起义反抗数十年来一直忍受的强势独裁统治，要求建立新的政府。结果与大多数人的期望大相径庭。一些国家爆发战争，另一些国家则恢复了专制政权。只有“阿拉伯之春”运动的发源地突尼斯在动乱之后成功实现了民主转型。但即使是突尼斯，也依然在动荡中挣扎。到2022年，该地区依然一片混乱，动荡不安。

In the 1990s, many of these communist dictatorships ended. Eastern Europe went through dramatic upheavals. Several communist systems were overthrown; the Soviet Union broke up into various countries; and all of these countries experienced enormous political, social, and economic change. In 2011, it was the Middle East that went through violent social upheavals in what became known as the Arab Spring. People revolted against strong dictatorships, which the Arab people had accepted for decades, and demanded new forms of government. The result was quite different than the result most people hoped for. War broke out in some countries and others returned to repressive governmental regimes. Only Tunisia, the origin of the Arab Spring movement, successfully transitioned to a democracy in the wake of the unrest. But even it struggled with instability. Through 2022 the region remained chaotic and volatile.

在民主国家，重要的社会变革也能通过有计划的政府行动实现，但前提是这些行动必须得到民众的支持。然而，与对新闻媒体进行严格控制的独裁政权相比，这类变革的实施速度更慢，力度也更小。

Important social changes can also be brought about in democratic countries through planned government action, but only if the action has popular support. However, such changes are implemented more slowly and are much less drastic than those that can be made by a dictatorship that has strong control over the press.

然而，即使是独裁政权也必须得到民众的支持，正如“阿拉伯之春”所表明的那样。为了有效地推动民主国家的社会变革，政府行动要么必须反映民众既定的信念，要么必须相对较快地改变这些信念。如果立法侵犯了大多数公民认为的自身正当权利和特权，那么它就很难成功。例如，美国宪法中于1919年至1932年合法生效的禁酒令修正案最终失败并被废除，因为大多数美国人认为禁止酒类销售是对其个人自由的不合理侵犯。

Even dictatorships must, however, have some support from the people, as was demonstrated by the Arab Spring. To be effective in promoting social change in a democracy, government action must either reflect the established beliefs of the people or change those beliefs relatively quickly. If legislation violates what the majority of citizens believe to be their just rights and privileges, it has little chance of success. For instance, the Prohibition amendment to the US Constitution, legally in force from 1919 to 1932, failed and was finally repealed because the majority of Americans felt that outlawing the sale of liquor was an unreasonable violation of their personal liberties.

科技正在改变人们的组织方式，从而影响社会变革的本质。例如，2012年，一名社区巡逻志愿者杀害了一名手无寸铁的黑人少年，却没有受到任何犯罪指控。几天之内，数百万人迅速签署了一份请愿书，要求逮捕此人。最终，他被逮捕了。在互联网和社交网络出现之前，如此迅速、自发的运动是不可能的。

Technology is changing the way people organize, and thereby affecting the nature of social change. For example, in 2012, when a neighborhood watch volunteer killed an unarmed black teenager and was not charged with a crime, within days, millions of people quickly signed a petition demanding that the person be arrested. He was. Before the Internet and social networking, such a quick, spontaneous movement would have been impossible.

地理与气候：人们在特定地区长期生活后，会逐渐适应当地的地理和气候条件。例如，一个濒临海洋的社会比内陆社会更容易利用海洋资源——例如鱼类作为食物、贝壳作为珠宝，以及可能因靠近海洋而扩大贸易。自然环境的变化是可能发生的，而且确实会发生。在极端情况下，干旱、地震、重要自然资源的枯竭、气候变化等都可能需要文化发生彻底的调整。

Geography and Climate When people live in a given region over a long period of time, they become adjusted to local conditions of geography and climate. A society, for example, set on the edge of an ocean would be more prone to utilize marine resources—fish for food, shells as jewelry, and perhaps greater trade owing to the oceanic access—than would a landlocked society. Changes in the natural environment can and do occur. In extreme cases, droughts, earthquakes, the exhaustion of important natural resources, changes in climate, and the like may require radical cultural adjustments.

当人们从一个地区迁徙到另一个地区时，地理和气候也是社会变迁的重要因素。移居到美洲、非洲、澳大利亚和新西兰的欧洲殖民者发现，这些地区的气候、地形和自然变化存在诸多差异，尤其是在食物、服饰、住房和谋生方式方面。我们将在第五章更详细地探讨这些问题。

Geography and climate are also important factors in social change when people migrate from one region to another. The European settlers who emigrated to the Americas, Africa, Australia, and New Zealand found many differences of climate, topography, and natural changes, especially in food, clothing, houses, and ways of earning a living. We consider these issues in more detail in Chapter 5.

语言与文化变迁

Language and Cultural Change

社会变革需要很长的时间才能发生，而且往往难以察觉。由于我们对过去的认知并不完美，我们对过去的了解也同样有限且不完善。我们不知道过去是什么，我们只知道现在是什么。了解变革发生的方式之一是思考语言的进化是关键。一些社会科学家认为，所有现代语言都源于一个共同的根源——大约两万年前，生活在非洲或亚洲的一小部分人使用着这种语言。

Social change takes place over long periods of time and often is difficult to discern. Because our perceptions of the past are imperfect, our knowledge of the past is also limited and imperfect. We don’t know what was; we only know what is. One way to get an idea of the change that takes place is to consider the evolution of languages. Some social scientists believe that all modern languages sprang from a single root—spoken by a tiny population that probably lived in Africa or Asia about 20,000 years ago.

我们可以通过比较《贝奥武甫》（公元 8 世纪）等书中的古英语短语“Hal! Geard weallas!”（读起来像外语）和莎士比亚（公元 16-17 世纪）中的同一句话：“How art thou?” 以及现代变体：“How ya doin'?” 来了解一种语言能够演变到何种程度。鉴于语言可以在我们不知不觉中发生如此大的变化，我们不应该对文化的变化以及文化之间的差异感到惊讶。

How much a language can evolve can be seen by comparing the Old English phrase for “How are you?” in a book like Beowulf (eighth century AD): “Hal! Geard weallas!” (it reads like a foreign language) to that same phrase in Shakespeare (sixteenth-seventeenth century ad): “How art thou?” to a modern variant: “How ya doin’?” Given how much languages can change without our noticing, we should not be surprised by how much cultures can change and how different cultures can be from one another.

稳定文化的因素

Factors Stabilizing Culture

社会变迁的诸多因素共同造就了一个充满活力、持续变革的社会。变革与文化常常发生冲突，文化对社会变革构成了强大的阻力。在当今的美国，在我们文化中不断发生的诸多变化背后，隐藏着大量稳定因素，它们保障着我们生活方式的连续性。

The various factors of social change lead to a dynamic, continually altering society. Change and culture will often conflict, with culture providing strong resistance to social change. In the present-day United States, underlying the many changes constantly taking place in our culture is a great body of stabilizing elements that give continuity to our way of life.

社会规范的稳定性尽管一些工业社会高度重视所谓的进步，但人类似乎基本上是保守的。人类的思想和性格是如此构成，一旦人们形成了某些信念、态度和行为模式，就很难改变它们。这对于我们在幼儿时期易受影响的岁月中无意识地习得的文化基本要素尤其如此。我们的信念和态度可能包含对变化的某种认可——例如时尚的变化——但这种认可仅限于一定范围内。社会习俗、主要制度，甚至许多惯例都深深地印在我们心中，成为我们自身人格的重要组成部分。例如，女性需要受到保护，免受商业竞争的残酷现实、军旅生活的喧嚣和繁重体力劳动的困扰，这一传统在20世纪70年代美国宪法平等权利修正案未能通过的过程中发挥了一定作用。

Stability of Social Norms In spite of the high value that some industrial societies place on so-called progress, human beings appear basically conservative. The human mind and personality are so constituted that once people acquire certain beliefs, attitudes, and patterns of behavior, they have difficulty changing them. This is especially true of the basic elements in our culture that we acquire unconsciously in the impressionable years of early childhood. Our beliefs and attitudes may include some approval of change—for example, changes in fashions—but only within limits. The mores, the principal institutions of our society, and even many of its conventions are so firmly impressed on us that they become an essential part of our own personalities. For example, the tradition that women need to be protected from the harsh realities of commercial competition, the rough and tumble of military life, and the demands of heavy physical labor played a role in the failure of the passage of the Equal Rights Amendment to the US Constitution in the 1970s.

习惯习俗、道德和社会制度之所以能够经久不衰，一个主要原因是它们在很大程度上会成为社会群体所有成员的习惯。习惯是指人们习得的行为方式，这些方式无需刻意注意就能保持下去。然而，一旦养成，它们就很难改变，因为它们会成为个人性格的一部分。

Habit A chief reason for the persistence of conventions, mores, and social institutions is that they become largely habitual for all members of the social group. Habits are ways of behaving that have been learned so well that they can be carried on without conscious attention. Once acquired, however, they are difficult to change because they become a part of the individual’s personality.

价值观依恋习俗、道德和制度之所以能够持续存在，另一个原因是我们和我们的群体赋予它们价值。就习俗而言，这些价值可能微不足道，但就道德和某些基本制度而言，它们却意义非凡。当我们相信既定的行为模式具有崇高的道德价值，并且能够在我们心中激起强烈的情感时，这些模式就会变得难以改变。

Value Attachment Another reason for the persistence of conventions, mores, and institutions is that we and our group attach values to them. In the case of conventions, these values may be small, but in the case of mores and certain basic institutions they are great. When we believe that established patterns of behavior have high moral value and when, in addition, they arouse in us strong emotions, these patterns become resistant to change.

任何重要的社会变革，即使受到大多数人的青睐，也可能遭到许多拥有既得利益的个人和团体的反对。既得利益是指个人因现状（即现有事态）而享有的特权或优势。熟练的泥水匠在泥水行业拥有既得利益，不太可能支持用墙板代替灰泥。建筑行业的各工会为了保护其成员的工作，一直在反对预制房屋，并坚持保留速度更慢、成本更高的现场建造方法。

Social changes of any importance, even though favored by the majority, are likely to meet opposition from many individuals and groups who have vested interests. A vested interest is a privilege or advantage that an individual enjoys because of the status quo, which is the existing state of affairs. A skilled plasterer has a vested interest in the plastering trade, and is not likely to favor substituting wallboard for plaster. Various unions in the building industry, in order to protect the jobs of their members, have fought against prefabricated housing and have insisted on retention of slower, more expensive, on-the-spot building methods.

出于自私的原因，反对将新元素引入我们文化的并非只有工业和劳动。现状的改变不仅会给许多人带来物质上的损失，还会让他们在权力和声望上遭受损失。神学家、哲学家和科学家一再反对新思想和新知识，因为他们担心自己既定的信仰和理论会受到质疑。

Industry and labor are not alone in opposing, for selfish reasons, the introduction of new elements into our culture. Many people stand to lose by changes in the status quo, not only materially but also in power or prestige. Theologians, philosophers, and scientists have again and again opposed new ideas and new knowledge for fear that their own established beliefs and theories would be discredited.

社会变革与社会稳定

Social Change Versus Social Stability

我们现代社会珍视的许多事物——例如我们相对较高的生活水平——如果没有对社会变革持开放态度就不可能实现，因为所有变革都会产生新的情况。然而，如果变革发生得太快，可能会带来我们意想不到的新问题。它非但不会带来一个更美好的世界，反而会带来周期性的危机，给人们带来持续的不确定性和不安全感。每个社会群体都感到需要一定程度的稳定。如果要维持这种稳定，我们基本制度的变革必须是渐进的。它必须通过演变而不是革命来实现。对于任何一个大型现代社会来说，要满足其人民的需求，都需要一个非常复杂的组织；这个组织可以被挑战，可以被调整，可以被改变，但任何认为它可以被摧毁并迅速被更好的组织取代的想法都是不现实的。社会革命永远不会完成，它们带来的结果也很少，比如经过多年的斗争和混乱之后，俄国的共产主义革命产生了斯大林；德国的国家社会主义革命产生了希特勒。

Many of the things we value in our modern society—for example, our relatively high standards of living—could not have been brought about without a receptive attitude toward social change, because all change produces new situations. However, if change occurs rapidly, it may create new problems for which we are unprepared. Instead of introducing a better world, it can bring on periodic crises and give people a constant sense of uncertainty and insecurity Every social group feels the need for some degree of stability. If this stability is to be maintained, change in our basic institutions must be gradual. It must take place by evolution rather than by revolution. For any large modern society to meet the needs of its people requires a remarkably complex organization; the organization can be challenged, it can be adapted, it can be changed, but any belief that it can be destroyed and quickly replaced with something better is unrealistic. Social revolutions are never complete, and they bring few of the results that were envisioned. The communist revolution in Russia, after years of struggle and confusion, produced Stalin; and the National Socialist revolution in Germany produced Hitler.

文化滞后与社会问题

Cultural Lag and Social Problems

尽管文化中的某些元素可能会发生变化，而其他元素则相对保持不变，但特定文化的各个方面绝非完全独立。例如，宗教可能对技术变革产生重大影响。一方面，它可能会通过宣扬物质进步符合神的旨意来促进技术变革；另一方面，它也可能通过宣扬机械创新是魔鬼的杰作来阻碍这种变革。

Though some elements in culture may change while others remain relatively constant, the various aspects of a given culture are by no means entirely independent of one another. To illustrate, religion may have a substantial influence on technological change. On the one hand, it may encourage technological change by teaching that material progress is in accord with the divine will; on the other hand, it may discourage such change by teaching that mechanical innovations are works of the devil.

© www.cartoonstock.com

© www.cartoonstock.com

已故杰出社会学家威廉·F·奥格本非常重视他所谓的文化滞后现象，认为它是社会混乱的根源之一。根据他的理论，任何社会的文化都由相互关联的要素组成一个模式。一旦实现了整合和稳定，该模式中任何一个部分的变化都可能给密切相关的部分带来紧张和干扰。最终，人们会进行调整以恢复和谐，但与此同时，可能会出现相当长的一段时间滞后，紧张局势将持续存在。在现代工业社会中，技术变革决定了变革的节奏。根据奥格本的理论，技术进步导致我们文化的物质方面发生快速变化，但非物质方面却未能适应，或者只有在过长的滞后之后才适应。结果，许多棘手的社会问题由此产生。

The late eminent sociologist William F. Ogburn assigned great importance to what he called cultural lag as a source of social disorganization. According to his theory, the culture of any society constitutes a pattern of interrelated elements. Once integration and stability have been achieved, a change in any one part of the pattern may create strains and disturbances in the closely related parts. Eventually, adjustments will be made to restore harmony, but meanwhile there may be a considerable time lag during which tension persists. In modern industrial societies, it is technological change that sets the pace. According to Ogburn’s theory, technological progress produces rapid changes in the material aspects of our culture, but the nonmaterial aspects fail to adjust, or they do so only after an excessive time lag. As a result, many troublesome social problems are created.

文化滞后是指文化不同部分之间变化速度的差异，导致社会不适应。一个经常被提及的文化滞后现象是政治组织未能适应交通运输的进步。举例来说，美国现行的县和县政府体制建立之时，前往县城的唯一交通方式是乘坐马车。由于一天的实际行程限制在二十英里左右，因此规模较大的地方政府单位难以管理。如今，虽然旅行不再受到限制，但现有的地方政府机构几乎没有变化。

Cultural lag is the discrepancy between the rate of change of one part of a culture in relation to another, resulting in a maladjustment within society. A frequently cited cultural lag is the failure of political organizations to adjust to advances in transportation. To illustrate, the present system of counties and county governments in the United States was established when the only way to travel to the county seat was by horse and buggy. Because twenty miles or so was the practical limit of a days travel, larger units of local government would have been difficult to administer. Today there is no such restriction on travel, but there has been little change in existing lines of local government.

文化滞后理论的局限性

Limitations of the Cultural Lag Theory

文化滞后理论很有用，前提是我们清楚地理解其含义及其局限性。首先，我们不能假设文化物质层面的变化总是先于非物​​质层面的变化。两者之间存在着持续的相互作用，从长远来看，技术进步本身在很大程度上取决于某些非物质因素，例如社会态度和社会组织形式。文化的物质产品，即使不是全部，也大多源于人类的思维，如果没有良好的非物质文化氛围，新的物质设备就不会被发明和使用。当今社会快速的物质进步本身就是我们非物质文化早期变革的结果，这些变革使得现代机器技术的发展成为可能。我们已经提请关注其中一些早期的发展。其中之一是文艺复兴、宗教改革和大航海大航海等历史运动所带来的对变革的接受能力的增强。另一个密切相关的因素是思维态度的发展，这使得运用科学方法探索真理成为可能。

The cultural lag theory is useful, provided we clearly understand its meaning and its limitations. In the first place, we must not assume that changes in the material aspects of culture always precede changes in the nonmaterial aspects. There is a constant interaction between the two, and in the long run technological progress itself is largely dependent on certain nonmaterial factors such as social attitudes and forms of social organization. Most, if not all, of the material products of culture originate in the human mind, and new material devices will not be invented and put to use unless the nonmaterial cultural atmosphere is favorable. The rapid material progress characteristic of present-day society is itself the result of earlier changes in our nonmaterial culture, changes that made possible the development of modern machine technology. We have already called attention to some of these earlier developments. One was the increased receptivity to change that was brought about by historical movements such as the Renaissance, the Reformation, and the great voyages of discovery. Another closely related factor was the development of mental attitudes that made it possible to apply the scientific method to the search for truth.

其次，当物质文化发生变化时，我们有时可能难以就非物质文化需要做出哪些调整达成一致。例如，汽车的发明及其作为交通工具的广泛应用。汽车带来了许多社会变革，包括求爱和约会习俗的变化。其影响之一就是使恋爱中的情侣在某种程度上摆脱了长辈的严密监督。这是否代表着我们的非物质文化对汽车的调整并不令人满意？一些观察家认为确实如此。他们认为这是文化滞后的一个例子，并主张必须设计新的方法来监督恋爱中的情侣，以维持道德标准。然而，另一些人则认为，两性关系的更大自由并非问题，而是一种代表社会进步的发展。

In the second place, when changes occur in the material culture we may sometimes have difficulty in agreeing on the kinds of adjustments needed in the nonmaterial culture. Consider, for example, the invention of the automobile and its widespread adoption as a means of transportation. The automobile brought about many social changes, including changes in the customs of courtship and dating. One of its effects was to enable dating couples to escape, to some degree, the close supervision of their elders. Did this represent an unsatisfactory adjustment of our nonmaterial culture to the automobile? Some observers maintained that it did. They considered it an example of cultural lag and argued that new ways of supervising dating couples had to be devised to maintain moral standards. Others, however, regarded greater freedom in the relations between the sexes not as a problem but as a development that represented social progress.

但即使人们普遍认为非物质文化尚未很好地适应物质文化的变化，做出预期的调整也可能十分困难，甚至可能根本不可能。“滞后”一词乐观地暗示，令人满意的解决方案

But even if there is general agreement that the nonmaterial culture has not satisfactorily adjusted to changes in the material culture, making the desired adjustments may be difficult or, conceivably, impossible. The word lag implies optimistically that the satisfactory solution

技术变革引发的社会问题解决只是时间问题，但在某些情况下，这一天可能永远不会到来。例如，我们社会对胎儿流产过程的医学知识的不断增长，只会加剧围绕这一问题的社会冲突。

of social problems resulting from technological change is merely a matter of time, but in some cases this time may never come. Our society’s increased medical knowledge of fetal abortive processes has only added to the social conflict surrounding that issue, for instance.

人类与社会的互动

The Interaction of Humans and Society

虽然我们每个人在某种程度上都是文化环境的产物，但没有两个人会拥有完全相同的个人经历。此外，他们也不会遗传相同的生理和心理结构，这些遗传差异会导致他们对文化环境中的许多因素做出不同的反应。

Though we are all, in part, products of our cultural environment, no two persons will have exactly the same personal experiences. Furthermore, they will not inherit biologically the same physical and mental constitutions, and these inherited differences will cause them to react differently to many of the elements in their cultural environment.

因此，人类学的研究是一个复杂的过程，它从个体的独特性到社会的普遍性，再回到个体的独特性。因此，这样的研究必须涵盖广泛的问题。

Thus, the study of humankind is a complicated one that moves from unique traits of individuals to general aspects of society and back again to unique aspects of individuals. Therefore, such a study must encompass a wide range of issues.

文化相对主义

Cultural Relativism

文化相对主义主张所有文化在很大程度上都是平等的。也就是说，文化的发展方式最适合其受众的需求，并且文化特质本身也具有特定的目的。因此，我们不能在不考虑其完整历史的情况下，就断言一种文化优于另一种文化。

The doctrine of cultural relativism asserts that all cultures are for the most part equally valid. That is, cultures develop in a way that best suits the population’s needs, and the cultural traits within a culture have a specific purpose. Thus, we can’t say that one culture is better than another without taking into account its full history.

如今，很少有社会学者会质疑这样的观点：任何能够满足群体基本需求并长期生存的文化都值得尊重，那些践行其习俗并遵循其道德准则的个人也同样值得尊重。文化本身无所谓好坏对错；它们只是存在，必须根据其自身的价值体系来评判。因此，要理解其他文化，我们必须尝试通过在其影响下成长起来的人的视角，而不是我们自己的视角来看待它们。如果我们这样做，或许会发现这些文化满足了我们未能意识到的需求。例如，19世纪前往南太平洋某些岛屿的传教士们惊讶地发现，当地妇女腰部以上不穿衣服。他们的使命之一是让当地妇女改穿“哈伯德妈妈”（Mother Hubbards）——一种不修身的连衣裙，可以很好地遮盖身体。对传教士来说，这似乎是一个巨大的收获。但从健康的角度来看，这或许并非好事。在岛屿的热带雨季气候下，哈伯德妈妈们大部分时间都处于潮湿状态，这可能导致她们的健康状况不佳。

Today, few students of society would question the proposition that any culture that has enabled a group to meet its basic needs, and to survive over a long period of time, is worthy of respect, as are the individuals who practice its customs and follow its moral precepts. Cultures are not as a whole good, bad, right, or wrong; they simply exist and must be judged relative to their own value system. Therefore, to understand other cultures, we must try to look at them through the eyes of those who have been brought up under their influence rather than through our own eyes. If we do this, we may find that these cultures meet needs we have failed to recognize. For example, nineteenth-century missionaries to certain South Sea islands were shocked to find that the native women wore no clothing above the waist. Part of their mission was to convert the women to wearing Mother Hubbards, shapeless dresses that kept their bodies well covered. To the missionaries, this seemed a great gain. But from a health standpoint, it may have been unfortunate. In the tropical rainy climate of the islands, the Mother Hubbards were wet much of the time, and they may have contributed to poor health.

民族中心主义是指倾向于用自身文化及其标准来评判其他文化，并认为自己的民族及其生活方式优于其他所有民族。二十世纪的一个极端例子是纳粹宣称日耳曼人是超级种族的理论。在现代社会，民族中心主义和沙文主义情绪在动荡时期或经济萧条时期会加剧。纳粹之前的德国正处于严重的经济衰退之中，许多人认为这导致了阿道夫·希特勒的上台。在二十世纪后期，我们看到，或者被迫认识到，宗教作为一种分裂力量的力量。在北爱尔兰、尼日利亚、巴基斯坦和前南斯拉夫等国家，对立的宗教团体在国内激烈争斗，而他们的内部分歧有时会影响他们与外国的关系，因为他们有时会试图影响信仰。在其他国家。这些宗教信仰常常与政治问题混合在一起，使得文化问题变得复杂而棘手。

Ethnocentrism is the tendency to judge other cultures by one’s own culture and its standards, and the belief that one’s own people and their way of life are superior to all others. An extreme example in the twentieth century was the Nazi doctrine that the Germans were a super race. In modern societies, feelings of ethnocentrism and chauvinism increase during times of insecurity or economic depression. Pre-Nazi Germany was in a severe depression, which many believe enabled Adolf Hitler to rise to power. In the late twentieth century, we saw, or were forced to recognize, the power of religion as a divisive force. In countries such as Northern Ireland, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the former Yugoslavia, opposing religious groups have fought bitterly with each other within their own borders, and their internal differences can affect their relations with foreign countries as they sometimes attempt to influence beliefs in other nations. Frequently, these religious convictions are mixed with political problems, making the cultural issues complex and recalcitrant.

民族中心主义曾一度对一些无文字的部落社会具有生存价值，因为它赋予他们自信，让他们相信自己民族和生活方式的优越性。但如今，尽管民族中心主义仍然有助于社会凝聚力，但生存很可能取决于不同种族、民族和国家之间能否达成理解与合作。虽然某种程度的民族中心主义对于维系社会凝聚力至关重要，但刻意培养民族中心主义通常会导致误解、偏见、怨恨和冲突。

At one time, ethnocentrism may have had a survival value for some nonliterate tribal societies by giving them confidence in the superiority of their own people and own way of life. But nowadays, although ethnocentrism still contributes to the cohesion of a society, survival is likely to depend on achieving understanding and cooperation among races, peoples, and nations. Although some ethnocentrism is necessary to hold a society together, the conscious cultivation of ethnocentrism generally results in misunderstanding, prejudice, ill feeling, and conflict.

社会研究方法

Approach to the Study of Society

本书主要关注现代美国社会的本质。因此，大部分讨论都集中在我们自身的文化及其基本价值观，以及在努力实现这些价值观的过程中所出现的问题上。然而，如果我们从更宏观的角度看待自身社会，就能更好地理解它。因此，本书通篇都强调其他社会和文化，关注所有文化的共同特征，以及它们之间的差异。

In this book we are primarily concerned with the nature of modern US society. Most of the discussion is therefore centered on our own culture and its basic values and on the problems that arise in connection with efforts to achieve these values. However, we can understand our own society better if we see it in perspective. Hence, throughout the book we call attention to other societies and cultures, to the characteristics common to all cultures, and to the differences that distinguish them.

由于科学的职能并非确定社会价值观，我们在很大程度上只是假设我们自身民主社会的基本理想是有效的，偶尔也会尝试阐明这些理想。但我们的主要努力在于描绘美国社会的总体特征。我们解释其价值观和社会制度。我们也讨论其未能实现目标的原因以及有时由此产生的挫折和冲突，思考其主要问题的性质，并探索通过社会行动解决这些问题的可能性。

Because it is not the function of science to determine social values, we simply assume for the most part the validity of the basic ideals of our own democratic society, and occasionally we attempt to clarify these ideals. But our principal efforts are concerned with giving a picture of the general character of US society. We explain its values and its social institutions. We also discuss its failures to achieve its goals and the frustration and conflict that are sometimes the result, and we consider the nature of its major problems and explore the possibilities of solving them through social action.

学习与回顾

Study and Review

一般问题

General Questions

1. 文中对文化的定义是什么？
2. What is the definition of culture given in the text?
3. 什么是文化进化？
4. What is cultural evolution?
5. 作者是否认为单一文化主义和多元文化主义是对立的？为什么？
6. Do the authors see monoculturalism and multiculturalism as opposites? Why or why not?
7. 美国社会有哪些习俗、习俗和法律？
8. What are some examples of conventions, mores, and laws found in US society?
9. 什么是社会制度？
10. What are social institutions?
11. 什么是社会价值观？请举例说明。你认为美国人会接受杀婴作为一种积极的社会价值观吗？为什么？
12. What are social values? Give some examples. Do you think Americans could ever accept infanticide as a positive social value? Why or why not?
13. 为什么原始社会的文化比现代工业社会的文化更加融合？
14. Why are the cultures of primitive societies more integrated than the cultures of modern industrial societies?
15. 解释文化与社会的关系。
16. Explain the relationship between culture and society.
17. 你认为过去五六个世纪中哪些发展对加速社会变革至关重要？请分别解释原因。
18. What developments of the last five or six centuries do you think have been of greatest importance in speeding up the rate of social change? Explain why in each case.
19. 区分社会进化和社会变迁的概念。
20. Distinguish between the concepts of social evolu tion and social change.
21. 互联网如何改变文化传播的方式？
22. How is the Internet changing the way cultural diffusion takes place?
23. 为什么社会变革通常会遭遇强烈抵制？这是幸运还是不幸？请解释。
24. Why does social change usually encounter strong resistance? Is this fortunate or unfortunate? Explain.
25. 什么是社会问题？为什么某个社会问题往往难以定义或孤立？
26. What is a social problem? Why is a particular social problem often difficult to define or isolate?
27. 阐述文化滞后理论并讨论其局限性。
28. State the theory of cultural lag and discuss its limitations.
29. 什么是文化相对主义？这个概念与民族中心主义有何关联？
30. What is cultural relativism? How does this concept relate to ethnocentrism?
31. 当今的主要社会问题中，你认为哪三个最为关键？捍卫你的选择。
32. Of today’s major social problems, which three seem to you most critical? Defend your choices.
33. 有时我们对社会制度的某些方面感到不满。因此，我们是否应该彻底废除它，重新开始？为什么？
34. Sometimes we are dissatisfied with aspects of our social system. Should we therefore dismantle it completely and start over? Why or why not?

互联网问题

Internet Questions

1. www.toolpack.com/culture.html网站探讨了组织（业务）层面的文化变革。什么是组织文化？列举四家成功文化案例。
2. The site www.toolpack.com/culture.html discusses cultural change at the organizational (business) level. What is organizational culture? Name the four companies used as examples of successful cultures.
3. 浏览美国高尔夫球协会 (USGA) 的网站www.usga.org/。USGA 是一个社会机构吗？高尔夫球手们组成了一个社团吗？
4. Look through the website for the United States Golf Association www.usga.org/. Is the USGA a social institution? Do golfers comprise a society?
5. 请访问www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOe-xl-aUP2o并观看关于印第安寄宿学校的视频。英美文化与纳瓦霍原住民文化的互动产生了什么结果？本章中哪个术语最能体现内战时期威廉·谢尔曼将军的观点？普拉特将军的“杀死印第安人，拯救人类”的言论如何体现在美国政府关于纳瓦霍原住民儿童教育的行动中？
6. Go to www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOe-xl-aUP2o and the video about Indian boarding schools. What resulted from the interaction of Anglo-American and Native Navajo cultures? What term from this chapter best illustrates the views of Civil War general William Sherman and How was General Pratt’s comment, “Kill the Indian, save the man” reflected in the actions of the US government concerning the education of Native Navajo children?
7. 访问www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/french-phrases.html，阅读一些在英语中常用的法语短语。你认为这是文化传播的一个例子吗？请给出你自己的文化传播例子。
8. Go to www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/french-phrases.html and read some of the French phrases that have become commonly used in English. Do you think this is an example of cultural diffusion? Give your own example of cultural diffusion.
9. 请访问www.irespect.net/Untold%20Stories/Chinese/Chinese%20Values.htm阅读关于中国社会价值观的文章。谁的教义对这些价值观影响最大？中美文化中是否存在共同的价值观？
10. Read the article at www.irespect.net/Untold%20Stories/Chinese/Chinese%20Values.htm on Chinese social values. Whose teachings largely influence these values? Are there values that Chinese and American cultures share?

值得探索的书籍

Books to Explore

• 布鲁姆，保罗，《反对同理心：理性同情的案例》，纽约：哈珀柯林斯，2016 年。
• Bloom, Paul, Against Empathy: The Case for Rational Compassion, New York: Harper Collins, 2016.
• 布朗森·波和阿什利·梅里曼，《养育冲击：关于儿童的新思维》，纽约：中央大出版社，2009 年。
• Bronson, Po, and Ashley Merryman, Nurture Shock: New Tltinking about Children, New York: Grand Central Publishing, 2009.
• 格兰特，亚当，《再次思考：知道自己不知道的事情的力量》，纽约：维京出版社，2021 年。
• Grant, Adam, Tltink Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don’t Know, New York: Viking Publishers, 2021.
• Henig，Robin Marantz，《潘多拉的宝宝：第一批试管婴儿如何引发生殖革命》，纽约：霍顿·米夫林，2004 年。
• Henig, Robin Marantz, Pandora’s Baby: How the First TestTube Babies Sparked the Reproductive Revolution, New York: Houghton Mifflin, 2004.
• 霍夫曼，安德鲁 J.，《文化如何影响气候变化辩论》，斯坦福，加利福尼亚州：斯坦福简报，2015 年。
• Hoffman, Andrew J., How Culture Shapes the Climate Change Debate, Stanford, CA: Stanford Briefs, 2015.
• 米德，玛格丽特，《文化进化的连续性》，康涅狄格州纽黑文：耶鲁大学出版社，1964 年。
• Mead, Margaret, Continuities in Cultural Evolution, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1964.
• 凯文·奥基夫，《普通美国人：对美国最普通公民的非凡探索》，纽约：公共事务出版社，2005 年。
• O’Keefe, Kevin, The Average American: The Extraordinary Search for the Nation’s Most Ordinary Citizen, New York: Public Affairs, 2005.
• 萨波斯基，罗伯特，《行为：人类最好和最坏时的生物学》，纽约：企鹅出版社，2017 年。
• Sapolsky, Robert, Behave: The Biology of Humans at Our Best and Worst, New York: Penguin Press, 2017.
• 斯卡利亚，莫琳，《斯卡利亚演讲：关于法律、信仰和美好生活的思考》，纽约：企鹅出版社，2017 年。
• Scalia, Maureen, Scalia Speaks: Reflections on Law, Faith, and Life Well Lived, New York: Penguin Publishers, 2017.
• 埃里克·施洛瑟，《快餐帝国》，纽约：Perennial/Harper Collins，2004 年。
• Schlosser, Eric, Fast Food Nation, New York: Perennial/Harper Collins, 2004.
• 施瓦茨，霍华德·S.，《政治正确性与社会秩序的破坏：记录原始自我的崛起》，巴塞尔：帕尔格雷夫·麦克米伦出版社，2016 年。
• Schwartz, Howard S., Political Correctness and the Destruction of Social Order: Chronicling the Rise of the Pristine Self, Basel: Palgrave Macmillan, 2016.
• Shweder，Richard，《男人为什么烧烤？文化多样性食谱》，马萨诸塞州剑桥：哈佛大学出版社，2003年。
• Shweder, Richard, Why Do Men Barbecue? Recipes for Cultural Diversity, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2003.
• 杰伊·温斯坦 (Jay Weinstein)，《社会变革》，马里兰州兰纳姆：Rowman & Littlefield，2010 年。
• Weinstein, Jay, Social Change, Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2010.
• Zeigler，Alexis，《有意识的文化进化：理解我们的过去，选择我们的未来》，弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔：Ecodem Press，2000 年。
• Zeigler, Alexis, Conscious Cultural Evolution: Understanding Our Past, Choosing Our Future, Charlottesville, VA: Ecodem Press, 2000.

值得探索的网站

Internet Sites to Explore

• “ www.quantonics.com/Famous_CRites.html ”文化相对主义的追随者。
• “www.quantonics.com/Famous_CRites.html” Adherents of Cultural Relativism.
• “ www.worldbusinessculture.com/topic/culture/ ”各国商业文化指南。
• “www.worldbusinessculture.com/topic/culture/” Business Culture Guide by Country.
• “ www.cal.org/ ”应用语言学中心。
• “www.cal.org/” Center for Applied Linguistics.
• “ www.pitt.edu/~dash/folktexts.html ”民间传说和神话电子文本。
• “www.pitt.edu/~dash/folktexts.html” Folklore and Mythology Electronic Texts.
• “ www.isoc.org ”互联网协会。
• “www.isoc.org” Internet Society.

人口估计

Population Estimates

如果我们把所有国家的人口统计数据加起来，2022年的总人口略多于79亿。人口在各个国家和地区之间的分布并不均衡（见图5.1）。中国是人口最多的国家，超过14亿；亚洲是人口最多的地区，超过40亿。

When we add up the population statistics for all countries, we conclude that there were slightly more than 7.9 billion people in 2022. Population is divided up unevenly among countries and regions (see Figure 5.1). China has the largest population of any country, with more than 1.4 billion people; and Asia, with more than four billion people, has the largest population of any region.

人口增长的决定因素

Determinants of Population Growth

由于任何国家人口的两个关键决定因素是死亡率和出生率，因此值得特别考虑。图5.2显示了自1960年以来美国的出生率和死亡率。

Because two key determinants of the population of any country are its death rate and its birthrate, these deserve special consideration. Figure 5.2 shows the US birthrates and death rates since 1960.

当前世界死亡率低于遥远的过去。虽然由于新冠疫情，死亡率的下降速度有所放缓，但未来几年死亡率还能下降多少，将取决于世界人口年龄结构的变化以及医学科学的进步速度。虽然可以预测死亡率会进一步下降，但除非我们在控制退行性疾病和老龄化过程本身方面取得重大进展，否则人口增长的未来在很大程度上将取决于出生率的趋势。随着死亡率下降，世界人口将会增加，除非出生率也下降。尽管一些发展中国家努力降低出生率，但由于死亡率下降，其人口已经出现增长。

The current world death rate is lower than in the distant past. While its fall has slowed due to the Corona pandemic, how much further the death rate will drop in coming years will depend both on changes in the age composition of the world population and on the rate of advance in medical science. Although some further reduction in the death rate can be predicted, unless we make great advances in controlling degenerative diseases and the aging process itself, the future of population growth will depend largely on the trend of the birthrate. As death rates decline, the world population will increase unless birthrates also fall. Developing countries have already seen their populations increase because of their declining death rates, despite the efforts of some of them to decrease their birthrates.

在欧洲和美国，出生率自19世纪以来一直在下降，尽管有些国家曾出现周期性的上升。例如，在美国，尽管出生率在20世纪90年代初略有上升，并在2015年左右再次上升，但大多数人口统计学家认为，这只是暂时趋势，由于社会和经济因素使人们越来越不愿意承担养育大家庭所带来的麻烦、费用和责任，出生率的长期下降趋势可能会持续下去。

In Europe and the United States, the birthrate has been declining since the nineteenth century, although upswings have occurred periodically in one country or another. In the United States, for example, although the birthrate rose slightly in the beginning of the 1990s, and again around 2015, most demographers believe these were temporary trends, and the long-term decline of the birthrate will likely continue due to social and economic forces that make people less willing to accept the trouble, expense, and responsibility involved in raising large families.

美国、日本和欧洲的生育控制措施非常有效，以至于这些国家的人口增长速度已放缓至缓慢甚至开始下降。在欠发达国家，儿童在家庭中扮演着重要的经济和社会角色，尽管政府试图减缓人口增长速度，但人口增长速度仍然居高不下。在印度，一项由政府实施的强制绝育计划是导致英迪拉·甘地政府于1977年下台的一个因素。后来，她再次当选，该计划也进行了重大修改。

Birth control has been so effective in the United States, Japan, and Europe that their population growth has slowed to a crawl or even begun to decline. In less developed countries where children play an important economic as well as social role in the family, population growth has continued at a high rate despite governmental attempts to slow it down. In India, a state-run program of forced sterilization was a factor in the fall of the government of Indira Gandhi in 1977. She was later reelected and the program was significantly modified.

直到最近，中国家庭仍然面临着强大的社会和经济压力，要求只生一个孩子。这些压力包括同侪压力（决定生育多个孩子的家庭常常受到社会排斥）、经济压力（决定生育多个孩子的家庭会被罚款并被剥夺某些住房权利，而同意只生一个孩子的家庭则会获得经济奖励）以及辅导（党的领导人会上门拜访并解释了节育的原因和必要性。独生子女政策的效果不如一些人预期，尽管官方施加压力，甚至对生育超过一个孩子的家庭处以高达1000美元的罚款，但许多夫妇还是选择生育更多孩子。2016年，由于面临劳动力规模过小无法养活老龄人口的风险，中国终止了独生子女政策，取而代之的是二胎政策，并于2021年将其改为三胎政策。

Until recently in China, strong social and economic pressures to have only one child were applied to families. These included peer pressure (families deciding to have more than one child often were socially ostracized), economic pressure (families deciding to have more than one child were fined and deprived of certain rights to housing, whereas those agreeing to have only one child were financially rewarded), and counseling (the party leaders visited and explained the reasons and need for birth control). The one-child program was not as effective as some expected, and despite official pressures and even fines of as much as $1,000 for families having more than one child, many couples chose to have more children. In 2016, faced with the possibility of having a workforce too small to support its elderly population, China ended its one-child policy and replaced it with a two-child policy, and in 2021, it replaced it with a three-child policy.

降低出生率最原始的方法或许出现在泰国，那里的计划生育服务机构负责人用避孕套作为自己的名片。在那里，许多人穿着印有“每日一个避孕套，医生远离我”字样的T恤，而不是印有大学名称或口号的T恤。避孕信息被印在瓶盖、毛巾和冰淇淋棒等物品上。

Probably the most original approach to reducing the birthrate existed in Thailand, where the head of the family planning services used a condom as his calling card. There, rather than university names or slogans on T-shirts, many wore T-shirts with the message, “A Condom a Day Keeps the Doctor Away.” Contraceptive information was printed on things such as bottle caps, towels, and ice cream sticks.

人口随时间的增长

The Growth of Population Over Time

人口发展史表明，人口增长速度显著，但并非持续增长。相反，人口增长经历了扩张和收缩的时期。然而，自1800年以来，世界人口迅速增长。

The past history of population has been one of significant but not continual growth. Instead, it has been marked by periods of expansion and contraction. Since 1800, however, the world population has grown rapidly.

19 世纪以来人口为何迅速增长1800 年以来世界人口的大幅增长直接源于死亡率的持续下降。造成这一现象的因素有二：首先，卫生和医疗保健领域的巨大进步；其次，人均粮食和制成品产量相对较快增长，因此大量人的生活水平大大高于最低生存水平。人均产量的增长部分得益于世界上一些欠发达地区的贸易开放和定居。但更主要的是，人口增长是工业革命的结果。19 世纪和 20 世纪科学技术的巨大进步使世界能够养活迅速增长的人口。

Why Population Has Grown Rapidly Since the 1800s The great increase in world population since 1800 has resulted directly from a continuing decline of the death rate. Two factors are responsible for this: first, great advances in sanitation and health care, and second, a relatively rapid increase in the per capita output of both food and manufactured goods, so that for large numbers of people standards of living rose substantially above subsistence level. In part, the increase in per capita output was made possible by the opening up for trade and settlement of some of the undeveloped areas of the world. Principally, however, the increase was a result of the Industrial Revolution. The great advances of science and technology in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries made it possible for the world to support a rapidly rising population.

19世纪末以来人口增长不均衡19世纪后期，世界上一些欠发达地区开始享受现代科学、工业和交通运输带来的好处。卫生条件和医疗保健的改善开始降低死亡率，并提高人口增长率。一些欠发达地区，例如亚洲和拉丁美洲，人口增长速度远远超过了欧洲、美国和加拿大。

Unequal Population Growth Since the Late 1800s In the latter part of the nineteenth century, some of the less developed parts of the world began to experience some of the benefits of modern science, industry, and transportation. Sanitation and improved health care began to reduce the death rate and to increase the rate of population growth. Some of the less developed regions of the world, such as Asia and Latin America, made substantially greater gains in population than Europe, the United States, and Canada.

然而，世界发展中地区的人口增长往往以牺牲生活水平为代价。出生率居高不下，生产增长缓慢。如果粮食供应的增加暂时延缓了饥荒或缓解了营养不良，那么很快人口就会进一步增长。自1900年以来，亚洲人口增长了五倍；如今，全球60%以上的人口居住在亚洲。

However, increases in population in the developing areas of the world often occurred at the expense of standards of living. Birthrates remained high and production expanded slowly. If an increase in the food supply temporarily put off famine or relieved malnutrition, it was soon matched by a further increase in population. Since 1900, the population of Asia has increased fivefold; today, more than 60 percent of the people of the world are found there.

如图5.3所示，人口统计学家认为世界人口增长将越来越慢。他们预计人口净增长将在21世纪初下降，到22世纪初几乎停止。即便如此，所有国家也不太可能拥有相同的人口增长率。相反，人口增长较快的地区将被人口保持稳定甚至减少的地区所抵消。

As you can see in Figure 5.3, demographers believe that world population will grow more and more slowly. They see the net gains in population decreasing at the beginning of the twenty-first century and almost ending by the beginning of the twenty-second century. Even then, its unlikely that all countries will have the same population growth rate. Instead, regions with faster growing populations will be balanced by those where the population is stable or even shrinking.

计数问题

The Problem of Counting

本章提供的人口数字是估计值，有些估计值并不准确。事实上，除了最近几年的人口普查数据外，我们几乎没有基于实际人口普查的人口数字。人口普查是对居住在特定区域的人口数量进行的官方、系统统计。通常，在统计人口的同时，还会收集其他信息，例如年龄和性别。由于缺乏人口普查数据，我们只能对18世纪后期之前的人口数量和人口变化做出粗略的估计。

The population figures given in this chapter are estimates; some are not very good estimates. In fact, we have practically no population figures based on an actual census except for those of relatively recent years. A census is an official, systematic count of the number of people who live in a given area. Usually, when people are counted, other kinds of information about them, such as age and gender, are also gathered. Lacking any census figures, we can make only rough guesses about populations and population changes that occurred before the latter part of the eighteenth century.

欧洲国家首次可靠的人口普查是在1749年由瑞典进行的。美国的首次人口普查是在1790年进行的。大约在那个时候，其他几个欧洲国家也开始进行人口普查。到1850年，西欧、美国以及世界其他一些国家都获得了相当准确的数据。如今，我们拥有大多数国家相当可靠的人口统计数据；然而，即使是最简单的数字，例如一个国家到底有多少人口，这个问题常常引发争议。尽管美国的人口普查数据堪称世界一流，但究竟有多少人被漏算，仍然存在争议。例如，在1990年的人口普查中，美国人口普查局承认其实际漏算了约1000万人，并重复计算了约1120万人。2020年美国人口普查的最终汇编显示，美国总人口为330,104,702人。这意味着从2010年到2020年，美国总人口增加了约2200万人。

The first reliable census of a European country was taken by Sweden in 1749. In the United States, the first census was taken in 1790. About that time, several other European countries began to take censuses, and by 1850 reasonably accurate figures were available for western Europe, the United States, and some countries in other parts of the world. Today, we have fairly dependable population statistics for most countries; yet even the simplest numbers, such as how many people there are in a country, often are subject to debate. Although US census figures are about the best in the world, there are still debates about how many people were missed. For example, in the 1990 census, the Census Bureau accepted that it actually missed about ten million people in its count and that it double counted about 11.2 million people. Final compilation of the US census of 2020 shows the total US population at 330,104,702. This means that about twenty-two million people were added to the total population from 2010 to 2020.

为什么统计数据没有更准确？问问自己，如何设计一个系统来统计超过3亿不断流动的人口，包括无家可归者和无证移民，你很快就会明白其中的原因。关于是否应该使用抽样技术来“填补”那些未被单独统计的漏报人数，存在着激烈的争论。这个问题带有政治色彩，因为联邦拨款的分配通常取决于正式的人口普查数据。这个故事的寓意是，社会科学家会使用人口普查数据，但他们使用这些数据时会非常谨慎。他们对未来的估计甚至更加谨慎。

Why are the statistics not better? Ask yourself how you would work out a system to count more than 300 million people constantly on the move, including homeless and undocumented people, and you’ll quickly see why There is a significant debate about whether sampling techniques should be used to “fill in” for the numbers of people who are missed when they are not individually counted. The issue is politically charged because allocation of federal grants is often dependent on formal census counts. Tire moral of this story is that social scientists use census data, but they use them carefully. They use their own estimates of the future even more carefully.

马尔萨斯理论

The Malthusian Theory

两个多世纪以来，大多数关于人口问题的讨论都源于托马斯·罗伯特·马尔萨斯关于人口与人类生存资料关系的理论。马尔萨斯是一位英国国教牧师，也是一位早期英国经济学家。1798年，他发表了一篇短篇论文，名为《论人口原理及其对未来社会进步的影响》。

For more than two centuries, most discussions of the population problem have started from the theory of Thomas Robert Malthus concerning the relationship of population to the means of human subsistence. Malthus was a Church of England clergyman and an early English economist. In 1798, he published a short treatise called “An Essay on the Principle of Population as It Affects the Future Improvement of Society.”

简而言之，马尔萨斯理论认为人口增长速度往往会超过生存资料的供给。这并不是一个新观点，但马尔萨斯将其阐述得如此清晰有力，以至于他的论文引起了广泛关注。他认为，人类受一种强大的自然本能——男女之间的吸引力——驱使着增加人口。因此，如果没有阻碍，人口将迅速增长，没有限制。此外，人口将以几何级数增长，即乘法增长。马尔萨斯的意思是，如果人口在25年内翻一番，那么在接下来的25年内也会再次翻一番，如此反复，永无止境。然而，他认为生存资料只能以算术级数增长，换句话说，增长速度缓慢且有限。因此，人口增长总是会对粮食供应造成压力。当粮食供应不足以养活更多人时，营养不良、饥荒、疾病和战争的“积极”抑制将阻止人口的进一步增长。

Reduced to its simplest terms, the Malthusian theory is the belief that a population tends to outrun the means of subsistence. This was not a new idea, but Malthus developed it with such clarity and force that his treatise attracted wide attention. He contended that people are impelled to increase their numbers by a powerful natural urge, the attraction between male and female. As a result, if there are no obstacles, population will increase rapidly and without limit. Furthermore, it will increase in geometric ratio—that is, by multiplication. By this Malthus meant that if a population could double in, say, twenty-five years, it would double again in the next twenty-five years, and so on indefinitely. He believed, however, that the means of subsistence could be increased only in arithmetic ratio—in other words, slowly and to a limited extent. Consequently, population would always tend to press against the food supply. When the food supply became inadequate to support more people, any further increase in population would be prevented by the “positive” checks of malnutrition, famine, disease, and war.

马尔萨斯认为人口增长必然会超过生活资料的增长速度，这一观点基于收益递减规律。就土地、劳动力和粮食产量之间的关系而言，收益递减规律意味着，如果在一定面积的土地上雇佣越来越多的人，即使总产量可能持续增长，但超过某个临界点后，人均产量就会下降。

Malthus’s belief that population growth would necessarily tend to outrun means of subsistence was based on the law of diminishing returns. In terms of the relationships between land, labor, and food output, the law of diminishing returns means that if more and more people are employed on a given area of land, even though total output may continue to expand, beyond a certain point average output per worker will shrink.

世界上的良田数量是有限的。一旦地球上所有未开发地区都已定居并或多或少地进行集约化耕作，进一步增加粮食产量的尝试将变得越来越无效，因为它们将触发收益递减规律。通过在已耕种的土地上雇用更多工人或耕种肥力较低的土地，仍然可以提高产量。然而，假设农业技术没有进步，这将导致人均产量下降，而且随着人们试图将产量提高到越来越高的水平，这种下降幅度将越来越大。农业技术的进步或许在很长一段时间内足以抵消这种收益递减的趋势，但如果人口持续增长，这种进步不可能无限期地持续下去。迟早，人均土地面积将变得极其稀少。

The amount of good farmland in the world is limited. Once all the undeveloped regions of the earth have been settled and cultivated more or less intensively, further attempts to increase food production will become less and less effective because they will bring into operation the law of diminishing returns. It will still be possible to increase output by employing more workers on the land already cultivated or by cultivating land that is less fertile. However, assuming no advances in agricultural technology, this will bring about a decrease in the average output per worker, a decrease that will become greater and greater as attempts are made to raise production to higher and higher levels. It is possible that advances in agricultural technology might, for a long time, more than offset this tendency toward diminishing returns, but they could not do so indefinitely if population continued to grow. Sooner or later, the amount of land per person would become impossibly small.

马尔萨斯认识到，某些预防性措施或许可以通过降低出生率来减缓人口增长。他将这些预防性措施概括为“道德约束”。他所说的“道德约束”显然是指婚前贞洁和晚婚。然而，他认为这些预防性措施不太可能得到充分实施，从而对降低出生率产生重大影响。马尔萨斯显然反对婚后禁欲和避孕。他认为，婚姻及其性满足应该承担生育孩子的风险以及抚养孩子的责任。否则，人们将不劳而获，失去改善经济状况的主要动力。

Malthus recognized that certain preventive checks might conceivably slow population growth by reducing the birthrate. These preventive checks he summarized under the general heading of “moral restraint.” By this term he apparently referred to premarital chastity and late marriage. However, he did not believe that these preventive checks were likely to be practiced sufficiently to have much effect in keeping down births. Malthus apparently opposed both postmarital abstinence and contraception. He thought that marriage and its sexual satisfaction should carry with them the risks of bringing children into the world along with the responsibility to support them. Otherwise, people would get something for nothing and be deprived of their main incentive for economic improvement.

由于马尔萨斯对这些预防性措施能否有效阻止人口增长对生存资料造成压力几乎不抱希望，他对大多数人的经济状况能否大幅改善持悲观态度。然而，在其论文的最终版本中，他承认尽管人口增长，但欧洲的状况正在缓慢改善，并表达了希望，希望最终能找到某种方法，使人类社会实现“逐步、渐进的改善”。

Because Malthus had little hope that the preventive checks would be effective in keeping population from exerting pressure on the means of subsistence, he was pessimistic about the chances of greatly improving the economic condition of most people. However, in the final edition of his essay, he recognized that conditions in Europe were slowly improving in spite of the growth of population, and he expressed the hope that some way might yet be found to make possible the “gradual and progressive improvement” of human society.

最优人口概念

The Concept of Optimal Population

鉴于技术发展水平，任何国家的人口增长超过一定水平都意味着生活水平下降。农田、燃料、木材、金属和其他资源将相对短缺。另一方面，人口过少也会带来不利影响。在人口稀少的地区，维持法律和秩序、提供医疗和医院服务以及设立学校往往十分困难。此外，人口数量不足以修建足够的道路或维持公共交通服务。最优人口是指能够使其成员福利最大化的人口。那么，从福利最大化的角度来看，最优或最佳的人口规模是多少呢？

Given the level of technological development, in any country growth of population beyond a certain point would mean lower standards of living. Relative shortages of farmlands, fuels, timber, metals, and other resources would develop. On the other hand, a very small population would also have disadvantages. In thinly populated areas, it is often difficult to maintain law and order, to provide medical and hospital services, or to provide schools. Also, there are not enough people to build adequate roads or to make it worthwhile to operate public transportation services. The optimal population is the population that would maximize welfare for its members. What, then, is the optimum, or best, size of population from the standpoint of maximizing welfare?

事实上，我们根本无法准确确定一个国家在其特定发展阶段的最佳人口数量。然而，对于任何国家来说，都可能存在一个临界点，超过这个临界点，人口增长就会使其资源紧张，导致人均产出下降，进而降低生活水平。

Actually, there is no way of determining with even approximate accuracy what the optimal population of a country would be at any given stage in its development. Yet for any country, there is likely a point beyond which an increase in population would strain its resources and reduce average output per worker, and hence reduce standards of living.

然而， 《 终极资源》一书的作者朱利安·西蒙对这一观点提出了质疑。他认为，人才是终极资源，人永远不嫌多。人们创造创意，并在此过程中创造出技术，让世界能够支持日益增长的人口。

This view, however, is disputed by Julian Simon, author of The Ultimate Resource, who argued that people are the ultimate resource and that there can be no such thing as too many people. People create ideas, and as they do they create the technology by which the world can support an ever-larger population.

大多数人口统计学家并不认同西蒙的乐观。他们认为印​​度、巴基斯坦和中国已经超过了最佳人口数量，而美国和西欧也已经达到了最佳人口数量。但这种观点主要由美国和西欧的人口统计学家持有，他们带有西方文化偏见，任何关于最佳人口的论述都不可避免地受到文化的影响。

Most demographers do not share Simon’s optimism. They believe that India, Pakistan, and China have already exceeded their optimal quantity and that the United States and western Europe have reached theirs. But such views are primarily held by demographers from the United States and western Europe who have a Western cultural bias, and any statements about optimal population are inevitably culturally determined.

例如，贫穷的欠发达国家将资源和其他商品短缺归咎于发达国家过度浪费的政策，强调消费而非节约。一些批评人士声称，西方国家利用人口问题和高出生率国家降低出生率的必要性，对这些刚刚摆脱殖民主义的地区进行另一种帝国主义控制。

Poor, underdeveloped nations, for example, lay the blame for shortages of resources and other goods on the excessively wasteful policies of developed countries, with their emphasis on consumption rather than conservation. Some critics claim that Western nations are using the population issue and the need for reduced birthrates in countries with high birthrates as another form of imperialist control over these areas, which were so recently freed from colonialism.

人口质量问题

The Question of Population Quality

过去，一些研究人类社会的学者一直担心社会力量可能导致人类群体生物学素质的严重下降。他们担心，这种危险在社会和经济进步最快的国家最为严重。他们认为，这种恶化可能表现为两种形式：（1）个体体质和耐力下降，身体缺陷发生率上升；（2）先天智力（即心智发展能力）下降。

In the past, some students of human society have been concerned about the possibility that social forces would bring about a serious deterioration of the biological quality of human populations. They feared that the danger would be greatest in the countries that have made the most social and economic progress. This deterioration, they felt, might take two forms: (1) a decline of the physical quality and stamina of individuals, with an increasing incidence of physical defects, and (2) a decline of native intelligence—that is, the capacity for mental development.

他们对这一现象可能的原因持有不同观点。其中一种观点认为，医学和科学的进步，以及其他诸多成果，使得体弱或身体残疾的儿童更容易生存、长大成人并生育子女。现代医学使得适者生存的原则失效，或者说被大大削弱。简而言之，他们认为，在最坏的情况下，人道主义和科学非但不能拯救人类，反而会最终毁灭人类。

Their arguments as to why this might happen were varied. One was that the advances we have made in medicine and science have meant, among other results, that it is easier for children who are weak, or who have physical disabilities to survive, grow to maturity, and have children of their own. Modern medicine makes the principle of the survival of the fittest inoperative, or greatly weakened. In short, they argue that, in a worst-case scenario, humanitarianism and science, instead of saving the human race, will ultimately destroy it.

如今的第二个论点是社会经济论点。该论点认为，随着双收入家庭的发展，聪明的人会选择事业而非婚姻家庭，并且会生育很少的孩子，而大多数孩子则留给弱势群体和受教育程度较低的人抚养。为了支持这一观点，他们通常会指出上层中产阶级与弱势群体之间的生育率差异。

A second argument being made today is a socioeconomic one. It goes as follows: With the development of the two-income family, intelligent individuals will choose careers over marriage and family and will have few children, leaving the less advantaged and less educated to bear the majority of the children. To support this view, they usually point to the difference in the birthrate between the upper and middle classes on the one hand and the less advantaged classes on the other.

没有人能够确定，经济和社会的成功在多大程度上源于上层阶级比其他阶层拥有的更多先天特质。我们知道，个人的成功既取决于社会环境，也取决于生物遗传。

No one can be certain to what extent economic and social success results from inborn qualities that the upper classes possess in greater measure than the other classes. We know that individual success depends on both social environment and biological inheritance.

两者之间总是存在相互作用。然而，要从这个显而易见的事实转向这样一种信念：我们可以决定一个社会经济群体生育子女而另一个群体不生育时社会状况是好是坏，这是一个艰难的一步，很少有人愿意迈出这一步。此外，大多数人甚至不愿考虑为确保只有特定群体享有生育权而采取的社会措施。

There is always an interplay between the two. But to move from this obvious fact to a belief that we can determine whether society will be better or worse off when one socioeconomic group has children while another does not is a difficult step that few are willing to take. Moreover, most people are unwilling even to consider the social measures required to ensure that only certain groups have reproductive rights.

鉴于现代基因工程的蓬勃发展，这些问题可能会越来越受到关注。例如，现在可以通过羊膜穿刺术在胎儿出生前很久就检查其性别和某些先天缺陷。一个女性的卵子可以移植到另一个女性体内，精子也可以冷冻用于人工授精。在本世纪的某个时候，我们或许能够改变精子和卵子的基因特征，从而控制儿童的性状。原则上，夫妻可以去基因工程公司订购他们想要的孩子类型（“女孩，长大后身高5英尺7英寸，体重128磅，智商217”）等等。由于这些可能性，社会面临着几个难题：是否应该允许这样的技术进步继续发展？如果允许，谁来决定哪些基因改造是可以接受的，哪些基因改造过于极端？

Given modern developments in genetic engineering, these issues are likely to become more and more discussed. For example, it is now possible with amniocentesis to check a fetus for gender and for some birth defects long before it is born. Eggs from one woman can be transplanted into another, and sperm can be frozen to be used for artificial insemination. Sometime in this century, it may be possible to change the genetic characteristics of sperm and eggs so that childrens characteristics can be controlled. In principle, couples might go to a genetic engineering company and order the type of child they want (“girl who will grow up to be 5 feet 7 inches tall and weigh 128 pounds, with an IQ of 217,” and so forth). Because of these possibilities, society faces a couple difficult questions: Should such technological advances be allowed to continue? And if they are, who gets to determine which modifications are acceptable and which ones go too far?

一些社会积极尝试控制其人口的遗传特征。例如，新加坡政府成功地实施了严厉的打击毒品交易、色情和乱扔垃圾的法律。20世纪80年代，新加坡实施了一项计划，承诺向结婚生子的女大学毕业生提供额外特权。接受绝育手术的受教育程度较低的母亲可获得5000美元的奖金。政府声称实施这些法律的理由是，未受过教育的女性生育的孩子数量是大学毕业生的两倍，总理声称这将“耗尽人才库”并且“能力水平会下降”。然而，许多民众对该计划提出了强烈的反对意见：女性和男性都认为该计划不公平；科学家质疑该计划所依据的假设；受教育程度较低的女性不愿接受绝育手术，即使只是为了5000美元；女性也不愿被当作繁殖牲畜。大约一年半后，这项实验被取消。

Some societies have taken an active role in trying to control the genetic qualities of their population. For instance, Singapore, whose government has successfully administered severe laws against drug dealing, pornography, and littering, in the 1980s instituted a program whereby extra privileges were promised to female university graduates who married and had children. Bonuses of $5,000 were awarded to less educated mothers who submitted to sterilization. The government’s stated reasons for these laws were that uneducated women were having twice the number of children as college graduates were, and the prime minister claimed that this would “deplete the talent pool” and that the “level of competence would decline.” However, many segments of the population had strong objections to the program: both women and men perceived the program as unfair; scientists questioned the assumptions on which it was based; less educated women did not want to be sterilized, even for $5,000; and women did not want to be treated as breeding stock. The experiment was withdrawn after about a year and a half.

污染

Pollution

生态学家主要关注的是污染——生产过程对我们自然资源基础的破坏。在过去的五十年里，河流、湖泊和森林受到了污水和工业废物的广泛污染。在许多城市中心，纯净的空气也变得稀缺，居民经常不得不呼吸混合着汽车尾气、灰尘以及垃圾焚烧、焚烧炉、工厂烟囱和火炬产生的各种废物的空气。在一些地区，未经妥善处理的有毒化学物质和各种有害废物已经侵入土壤，有时整个社区都必须搬迁，同时清理他们以前的家园。在其他社区，人们怀疑各种疾病都是由这类问题引起的，但目前似乎没有切实可行的清理措施。在美国，一项在二十世纪末颁布的联邦法律规定，到2000年，核废料必须安全处置在“数千年”内不会发生泄漏的地点。这项命令最终被证明无法实施，部分原因是它似乎超出了现有技术的范畴，但主要原因是人们不希望这样的地点靠近自己的居住地。我们看到，由于各地方都力图避免被选中，因此存在着激烈的争论。“邻避”（NIMBY，Not In My Back Yard）已成为现代社会的口号。

A major concern of ecologists is pollution—the destruction of our natural resource base by the productive process. Over the past fifty years, there has been extensive pollution of rivers, lakes, and forests by sewage and industrial wastes. Pure air also has become scarce in many of our urban centers, where the inhabitants often must breathe a mixture of air combined with auto fumes, dust, and various waste products from trash fires, incinerators, and the smokestacks and flares of industrial plants. Improperly disposed toxic chemicals and various noxious waste products have invaded the soil in some areas, and sometimes whole communities must be moved while the sites of their former homes are cleaned up. In other communities, people suspect that various illnesses are caused by this kind of problem, but no cleanup seems immediately practical. In the United States, a federal law enacted near the end of the twentieth century mandated that by 2000 nuclear waste must be safely disposed of in sites where no leakage will occur for “thousands of years.” This mandate proved impossible to implement, partly because it was seemingly beyond current technology, but principally because people did not want such a site anywhere near where they lived. We are seeing much vigorous disagreement as localities all strive to avoid being chosen. NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) has become a watchword of modern times.

有些污染是生产的必然结果，它给社会带来了一个权衡：我们是想要更多的物质，还是想要更纯净的环境？在做决定时，必须兼顾成本和收益。

Some pollution is an inevitable consequence of production, presenting society with a trade-off: Do we want more material things, or do we want a more pristine environment? In making that decision, both the costs and benefits must be considered.

尽管在不考虑成本的情况下，人们能够认同节约和大力防治污染的必要性，但一旦考虑到成本，共识就会大大减少。让我们来考虑一下其中一些成本。这些成本包括对个人行为的限制、产业和就业岗位的迁移、新的官僚机构以及昂贵的新技术的开发。在评估污染问题时，必须考虑成本和收益。因此，我们不太可能决定制定“零污染”政策；这根本无法实施。即使接近“少量”污染的标准，对许多人来说，成本也过于高昂。相反，我们可能会选择一个“最优”的污染水平。

Although people can agree on the need for conservation and strong anti-pollution efforts when costs are not considered, when costs are considered there is significantly less agreement. Let’s consider some of these costs. They involve restrictions on individual actions, relocation of industry and jobs, new bureaucracy, and the development of expensive new technology. In assessing the issue of pollution, the costs as well as the benefits must be considered. Therefore, it is unlikely that we will decide to institute a “no pollution” policy; that would be impossible to implement. And even approaching a standard of “little” pollution, for many, would be too expensive. Instead we are likely to choose an “optimal level” of pollution.

自 20 世纪 60 年代以来，美国在防治污染方面取得了长足的进步，但这并非易事。核心问题是所谓的“公地悲剧”。由于环境属于整个社会，而不是特定个人，因此没有个人有动力去关心它。许多政府反污染机构应运而生。环境保护署 (EPA)是最重要的政府反污染机构；它指导反污染工作并监测环境问题。它取得的一些成果令人瞩目。20 世纪 50 年代初，伊利湖受到周边地区未经处理的污水的严重污染，以至于许多动物无法在其中栖息。如今，伊利湖正在稳步恢复。政府强制要求建立污水处理厂，并禁止企业向湖中倾倒工业废水。

Since the 1960s, the United States has made considerable gains in fighting pollution, but it has not been easy. The central problem is what is called the “tragedy of the commons.” Because the environment belongs to society as a whole, and not to specific individuals, no individual has the incentive to care for it. A number of governmental anti-pollution agencies have been established. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is the most important government anti-pollution agency; it directs antipollution efforts and monitors environmental problems. Some of its gains have been impressive. In the early 1950s, Lake Erie was so polluted by untreated sewage from surrounding areas that many forms of animal life could not inhabit it. Today, it is well on the way to recovery. Sewage treatment plants were mandated, and firms were prevented from dumping industrial waste into the lake.

为了减少石油污染，英国通过了处理石油泄漏的法律，规定造成泄漏的公司必须负责清理泄漏。针对其他类型污染，英国也通过了类似的法律。

To reduce pollution from oil, laws were passed dealing with oil spills so that companies responsible for the spillage are responsible for cleaning them up. Similar laws have been passed concerning other types of pollution.

许多环境问题都具有国际层面。例如气候变化及其伴随的全球变暖。气候科学家已确定，全球变暖在很大程度上是由化石燃料燃烧产生的温室气体和二氧化碳排放造成的。如果不采取措施，海平面将大幅上升。其结果将是低洼地区被洪水淹没，极端天气事件的频率和严重程度将增加。无论排放发生在何处，其影响都将波及全球。因此，这是一个全球性问题，而非单个国家的问题。如果要有效应对，就必须在全球范围内采取行动。

Many environmental issues have international dimensions. An example is climate change and the associated global warming. Climate scientists have determined that this global warming is caused, to a large degree, by greenhouse gas and carbon dioxide emissions associated with the burning of fossil fuel, and that unless something changes, there will be significant rises in ocean levels. The result will be that low lying areas will be flooded, and extreme weather events will increase in frequency and severity. The effects will be worldwide, regardless of where the emission takes place. So it is a global problem, not an individual state problem, which if it is to be dealt with effectively, will have to be dealt with globally.

出于对气候变化影响的担忧，各国试图组织集体行动来防止或减缓全球变暖，这始于 1997 年在日本举行的会议，该会议促成了《京都议定书》的达成。工业化国家同意减少温室气体（尤其是二氧化碳）的排放。美国有些人对只要求工业化国家减排而中国和印度等发展中国家无需遵守感到不满。将发展中国家排除在外的理由是，发展中国家的排放开始时间晚于工业化国家，因此需要在经济上“迎头赶上”。《京都议定书》将 2000 年定为完成日期。美国拒绝签署，2000 年美国的排放量比 1990 年的水平高出约 13%。美国并非唯一未能实现目标的国家；没有一个工业化国家在规定的最后期限前完成。由于该议定书没有执行机制，因此通过将最后期限一再提前来“处理”轮胎问题。

Concerns about the effects of climate change led countries to try to organize collective action to prevent or slow global warming, starting with a 1997 meeting in Japan that led to the Kyoto Protocol, in which industrialized countries agreed to cut emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide. Some in the United States were upset that only industrial countries were required to reduce emissions and that developing countries such as China and India did not have to comply. The exception of developing countries was justified by the argument that they began emitting later than industrial countries, and they need to “catch up” economically. The Kyoto Protocol set 2000 as the date for its accomplishment. The United States refused to sign, and in 2000 US emissions were about 13 percent above 1990 levels. The US was not the only country not to meet the goals; no industrial nation met the required deadline. Tire problems of the protocol, which had no enforcement mechanism, were “dealt” with by setting the deadline further and further ahead.

美国为不签署该议定书辩解说，该协议将对美国经济不利，而且即使尝试也不会奏效。在接下来的十年中，各种国际倡议应运而生，包括“晴朗天空倡议”、哥本哈根气候会议、各国承诺减少排放的“巴黎协定”以及 2021 年在格拉斯哥举行的联合国气候变化会议 COP26。在这些会议上，制定了各种通过自愿措施应对全球变暖的方法，例如奖励减少污染行业的限额与交易方法。在限额与交易方法中，确定一个污染总量（限额），新的污染源必须从现有污染者那里购买污染权，现有污染者同意减少一个抵消量，以使总污染量不超过设定的限额（交易）。

The United States justified not signing the protocol by arguing that the agreement would be bad for the US economy and, moreover, would not work even if attempted. Over the next decade, various international initiatives were developed, including the Clear Skies Initiative, the Copenhagen Climate Conference, the Paris Accord in which countries pledged to reduce emissions, and COP26, a U.N. climate change conference held in Glasgow in 2021. At these meetings, various methods were developed to combat global warming with voluntary measures, such as a cap-and-trade approach that rewards industries that reduce pollution. In a cap-and-trade approach, a total amount of pollution is determined (the cap), and new sources of pollution must buy the rights to pollute from existing polluters who agree to lower their pollution by an offsetting amount so that total pollution does not increase above the set limit (the trade).

保护和汽油及石油的价格

Conservation and the Price of Gasoline and Oil

经济学家指出，虽然自愿减排固然重要，但有效政策的真正驱动力可能是改变使用化石燃料的激励机制，而这源于价格的变化——要么是碳基燃料价格上涨，要么是风能和太阳能等更环保的技术价格下降。最初，许多环保人士认为石油正在变得稀缺，我们过度使用了资源。经济学家指出，如果真是这样，问题就会迎刃而解：随着石油变得稀缺，石油价格也会上涨。这样一来，人们就会节约使用石油和天然气，驾驶节能汽车，使用电动汽车或氢燃料电池汽车等耗油量更低的新技术。

Economists point out that, while voluntary reductions of emissions are great, the real driver of an effective policy will likely be changes in incentives to use fossil fuels, which comes from changes in price—either carbon based fuels become more expensive, or greener technologies such as wind and solar become cheaper. Initially, many environmentalists believed that oil was becoming scarcer and that we were overusing our resources. Economists pointed out that if that were the case, the problem would solve itself: as oil became scarcer the price of oil would rise. As it did people would economize on their use of oil and gas, driving fuel-efficient cars, using new technologies that use less oil such as electric cars or hydrogen based fuel cell cars.

石油价格远未上涨到改变人们行为所需的水平，很大程度上是因为石油并非那么稀缺。水力压裂等新的石油勘探和开采技术得到了发展，这大幅增加了未来五十年的石油供应量，并压低了价格。汽油价格并没有涨到每加仑5美元或10美元——如果涨到这个水平，美国消费者对SUV的热情就会消退——而是维持在3美元左右。如果要使用其他技术，就必须以更低的价格提供能源。为了鼓励使用其他技术，可以对这些技术进行补贴，各州和联邦政府就是这样做的，或者对石油和天然气的使用征收高额税费。（经济学家建议每加仑征收3美元或4美元的税，这意味着汽油价格将上涨到每加仑6美元。）

The price of oil didn’t rise to anywhere near the level that was needed to change behavior, in large part because oil wasn’t that scarce. New technologies to find and extract oil were developed, such as fracking, which increased the amount of available oil for the next fifty years enormously, and held down the price. Rather than rising to $5 or $10 a gallon, prices that would have ended the US consumer’s love of SUVs, gas prices stayed at about $3. If other technologies are to be used, they would have to provide energy at prices cheaper than that. To encourage that, these other technologies can be subsidized, which states and the federal government did, or oil and gas use would have to be significantly taxed. (Economists have suggested a $3 or $4 per gallon tax, which would mean the price of gas would rise to $6 per gallon.)

但最令人鼓舞的迹象在于绿色替代能源的价格，即使不考虑补贴，其价格也在下降。太阳能和风能技术在储能能力方面的进步正在降低“绿色”能源的价格，使其无需依赖巨额补贴就能与化石燃料技术竞争。未来十年，电动汽车很可能将在能源市场的很大一部分领域取代燃油汽车。

But the most hopeful signs are in the price of green alternatives, which have been falling even independent of subsidies. Technological advances in energy storage capabilities in solar and wind technologies are lowering the price of “green” energy, making it competitive with fossil fuel technology without the large subsidies that have made them competitive to date. Over the next decade, electric cars will likely replace gas cars in large portions of the energy market.

一般问题

General Questions

1. 地理学关注哪些问题？
2. What are some of the questions that geography is concerned with?
3. 什么是 GIS？它如何用于社会科学研究？
4. What is the GIS, and how might it be used in social science research?
5. 地理学如何与社会学互动？
6. How does geography interact with sociology?
7. 世界上有多少人？
8. How many people are there in the world?
9. 世界上人口最多的国家是哪个？解释一个国家在试图限制人口增长时面临的一些问题，包括成功限制人口增长后可能遇到的问题。
10. What is the world’s most populous country? Explain some of the problems that a country faces in trying to limit its population growth, including the problems it will have if it is successful.
11. 什么是马尔萨斯主义？托马斯·马尔萨斯的预言实现了吗？
12. What is the Malthusian doctrine? Have the predictions of Thomas Malthus come true?
13. 找出过去 200 年来世界人口增长的一些原因。
14. Identify some of the reasons why the world population has grown in the past 200 years.
15. 限制人口有哪些可能的方法？请列举自然原因以及政府或其他政策鼓励的原因。
16. What are some possible ways to limit population? Mention natural causes as well as those encouraged by government or other policies.
17. 在实践中，所有限制人口增长的政策都是可以接受的吗？如果不是，你会反对哪些政策？
18. In practice, are all policies for limitation of population growth acceptable? If not, which ones would you argue against?
19. 污染的成本有哪些？污染又能带来哪些好处？清理受污染区域的成本非常高昂。你能想到哪些方法来支付清理费用？
20. What are some of the costs of pollution? What are some of the gains from pollution? It is very expensive to clean up areas that have been polluted. What are some ways you can think of to pay for such cleanups?
21. 你是“增长国”（Growthlandia）的政府规划师。你想知道在哪里新建学校，在哪里关闭学校，以及是否应该启动一项雄心勃勃的计划来增加就业机会。你想知道“增长国”目前的人口构成情况，以及未来十五年人口结构可能发生的变化。
22. You are a government planner in the country of Growthlandia. You would like to know where to build new schools, where to close schools, and whether it makes sense to embark on an ambitious program to expand the number of job opportunities. What would you like to know about the composition of Growthlandia’s population now and how that population is likely to change in the next fifteen years?
23. 如果汽油价格为每加仑 10 美元，你的生活会有什么不同？
24. How would your life be different if gas cost $10 per gallon?

互联网问题

Internet Questions

1. 访问地图网站（例如www.atlapedia.com/），查看某个国家或地区。查看其地形和政治版图。它的边界是什么？哪些边界是自然形成的？
2. Go to an atlas site (for example, www.atlapedia.com/) and look at a country or region. Look at its physical and political map. What borders it? Which borders are natural?
3. 在网上搜索“葛藤”。它是什么？它有什么好处？又对美国东南部有什么危害？
4. Do an Internet search for kudzu. What is it? What are its benefits and what are its harms to the southeastern United States?
5. 联合国在其《世界妇女进步报告》（http://progress.unwomen.org/）中认为哪些因素对妇女权利构成重大制约？
6. What does the UN see as a significant constraint on womens rights in its Progress of the Worlds Women Report at http://progress.unwomen.org/?
7. 请访问“ www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/08/14/why-the-former-ussr-has-far-fewer-men-thanwomen/ ”。哪两个国家的女性比例最高？男性比例最高？
8. Go to “www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/08/14/why-the-former-ussr-has-far-fewer-men-thanwomen/.” What two countries have the highest percentage of females? Of males?
9. 根据美国环保署 (EPA) 的数据，臭氧层是什么？www.epa.gov/ozone-layer-protection/basic-ozone-layerscience。您所在邮政编码地区的今日紫外线指数是多少？www.epa.gov/sunwise/uvindex.html
10. What is the ozone layer according to the EPA, www.epa.gov/ozone-layer-protection/basic-ozone-layerscience? What is today’s UV index value for your zip code (www.epa.gov/sunwise/uvindex.html)?

值得探索的书籍

Books to Explore

• 康纳利，马修，《致命的误解：控制世界人口的斗争》，马萨诸塞州剑桥：哈佛大学出版社，2010 年。
• Connelly, Matthew, Fatal Misconception: The Struggle to Control World Population, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2010.
• 《当前人口报告》，华盛顿特区：美国人口普查局。每月发布美国人口估计数据；不定期发布特别报告。
• Current Population Reports, Washington DC: US Bureau of the Census. Population estimates for the United States issued monthly; special reports from time to time.
• 方梅，《独生子女：中国最激进实验的故事》，马萨诸塞州波士顿：霍顿·米夫林·哈考特出版社，2016 年。
• Fong, Mei, One Child: The Story of China’s Most Radical Experiment, Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2016.
• 弗里德曼，托马斯·L.，《世界是平的：二十一世纪简史》，纽约：法勒、斯特劳斯和吉鲁出版社，2005 年。
• Friedman, Thomas L., The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century, New York: Farrar, Straus, & Giroux, 2005.
• Friednjan，Thomas L.，《炎热、平坦、拥挤》，纽约：Farrar，Straus，& Giroux，2008 年。
• Friednjan, Thomas L., Hot, Flat, and Crowded, New York: Farrar, Straus, & Giroux, 2008.
• 盖茨，比尔，《如何避免气候灾难》，纽约：克诺夫出版社，2021 年。
• Gates, Bill, How to Avoid a Climate Disaster, New York: Knopf, 2021.
• 杰夫·古德尔，《水将至：海平面上升、城市下沉和文明世界的重塑》，纽约：小布朗公司，2017 年。
• Goodell, Jeff, The Water Will Come: Rising Seas, Sinking Cities and the Remaking of the Civilized World, New York: Little Brown and Co., 2017.
• Hanski，Ilkka，《来自岛屿的信息：全球生物多样性之旅》，伊利诺伊州芝加哥：芝加哥大学出版社，2016 年。
• Hanski, Ilkka, Messages from Islands: A Global Biodiversity Tour, Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 2016.
• 科尔伯特，伊丽莎白，《灾难现场笔记：人类、自然与气候变化》，纽约：布卢姆斯伯里出版社，2006 年。
• Kolbert, Elizabeth, Field Notes from a Catastrophe: Man, Nature, and Climate Change, New York: Bloomsbury, 2006.
• 马尔萨斯，托马斯，《人口原理或其对人类幸福的过去和现在的影响》，纽约：剑桥大学出版社，1992 年（首次出版于 1798 年）。
• Malthus, Thomas, An Essay on the Principle of Population, or, a View of Its Past and Present Effects on Human Happiness, New York: Cambridge University Press, 1992 (first published in 1798).
• 马歇尔，蒂姆，《地理的囚徒：十张解释世界一切的地图》，纽约：斯克里布纳出版社，2015 年。
• Marshall, Tim, Prisoner of Geography: 10 Maps That Explain Everything about the World, New York: Scribner, 2015.
• 米德，玛格丽特，编辑，《文化模式与技术变革》，纽约：新美国图书馆/导师，1955 年。
• Mead, Margaret, ed., Cultural Patterns and Technical Change, New York: New American Library/Mentor, 1955.
• 皮尔斯，弗雷德，《即将到来的人口崩溃和我们星球的惊人未来》，马萨诸塞州波士顿：Beacon Press，2011 年。
• Pearce, Fred, The Coming Population Crash and Our Planets Surprising Future, Boston, MA: Beacon Press, 2011.
• Sala, Enric，《自然的本质：我们为什么需要野性》，华盛顿特区：国家地理，2020 年。
• Sala, Enric, The Nature of Nature: Why We Need the Wild, Washington, DC: National Geographic, 2020.
• 西蒙，朱利安，《终极资源》，新泽西州普林斯顿：普林斯顿大学出版社，1981 年。
• Simon, Julian, The Ultimate Resource, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1981.
• 《美国统计摘要》，华盛顿特区：美国人口普查局。每年发布一次。
• Statistical Abstract of the United States, Washington, DC: US Bureau of the Census. Issued annually.
• 惠特比，安德鲁，《人民的总和》，纽约：Basic Books，2020 年。
• Whitby, Andrew, The Sum of the People, New York: Basic Books, 2020.

值得探索的网站

Internet Sites to Explore

• “ http://ecology.com/index.php ”生态全球网络。
• “http://ecology.com/index.php” Ecology Global Network.
• “ www.epa.gov ”环境保护局。
• “www.epa.gov” The Environmental Protection Agency.
• “ www.cleanairprogress.org/ ”清洁空气进步基金会。
• “www.cleanairprogress.org/” Foundation for Clean Air Progress.
• “ http://maps.nationalgeographic.com/maps/ ”国家地理地图。
• “http://maps.nationalgeographic.com/maps/” National Geographic Maps.
• “ www.lizardpoint.com/fun/geoquiz/ ”测试您的地理知​​识。
• “www.lizardpoint.com/fun/geoquiz/” Test Your Geographic Knowledge.
• “ https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/09/survey-geography-foreign-relations-americans-students/ ” 2016 年地理素养研究。
• “https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/09/survey-geography-foreign-relations-americans-students/” 2016 Geographic Literacy Study.
• “ www.un.org ”联合国。
• “www.un.org” The United Nations.
• “ www.census.gov ”美国人口普查局。
• “www.census.gov” The US Bureau of the Census.

美国工业主义的发展

The Development of Industrialism in the United States

十九世纪初，美国的机器工业和工厂制度开始发展。拿破仑战争（1803-1815）和1812年战争极大地推动了美国的工业化，因为它们使美国难以进口英国纺织品。为了弥补由此造成的短缺，美国建立了许多新的纺织工厂。雇主不得不支付比英国工厂同行更高的工资，但只要英国纺织品供应不足，他们就能盈利。和平时期随着技术传入欧洲，贸易恢复正常，许多新工厂被迫关闭。但也有一些工厂幸存了下来，从那时起，美国逐渐走向工业化。

In the early nineteenth century, the machine industry and factory system began to develop in the United States. The Napoleonic Wars (1803-1815) and the War of 1812 gave US industrialization a strong push because they made it difficult for the United States to import British textiles. To make up for the resulting shortage, many new textile factories were established in this country. Employers had to pay higher wages than their counterparts in the British factories, but as long as British textiles were not available, they could operate profitably. When peace came to Europe and normal trade was reestablished, many of these new factories were forced to close down. Others, however, survived, and from that time on the United States gradually became more and more industrialized.

在某些方面，美国的条件有利于工业化。首先，我们的国内市场正在快速增长。其次，原材料充足。第三，劳动力相对稀缺，工资高于欧洲，部分原因是工人们不断离开工作岗位，前往边境免费或廉价的土地定居。虽然这提高了生产成本，但也使得引进节省劳动力的机器成为优先事项。为了降低成本，尽可能多的操作被转移到动力机器上。结果，产量的增长速度远远超过了工人数量的增长速度，生活水平逐渐提高，财富开始积累。

In some respects, conditions in the United States favored industrialization. First, our domestic market was rapidly growing. Second, raw materials were plentiful. Third, labor was relatively scarce and wages were higher than in Europe, partly because workers kept leaving their jobs to settle on free or cheap land along the frontier. Although this raised costs of production, it also put a premium on the introduction of labor-saving machines. To reduce costs, as many operations as possible were shifted to power machines. As a result, production increased much faster than the number of workers, standards of living gradually rose, and wealth began to accumulate.

标准化、互换性和大规模生产

Standardization, Interchangeability, and Mass Production

以我们的标准来看，早期的机器十分粗糙。由于零件配合不完美，运转时噪音大、咔哒作响，而且经常发生故障。它们生产的产品往往不完美，因此必须手工进行进一步的加工才能达到合格标准。工业技术的一大进步是精密机器的逐渐发展，这些机器不仅运转平稳，还能生产出标准化、制造精确、可互换的零件，用于制造或多或少复杂的成品，例如手表、枪支、洗衣机和汽车。这种发展使得一台机器能够生产数千个相同零件，而且这些零件几乎完全相同，可以自由替换。标准化——生产统一、可替换的零件——得益于一项不起眼却影响深远的发展——测量设备的改进。类似的小改进在塑造我们的社会方面发挥了巨大的作用，因此值得详细描述一下，让您了解技术发展的平凡一面。

Early machines were crude by our standards. Because their parts did not fit together perfectly, they ran with a great deal of noise and clatter and frequently broke down. Often their products were imperfect, so that further work had to be done on them by hand to make them acceptable. One of the greater advances in industrial technology was the gradual development of precision machines that would run smoothly and that could also turn out standardized, accurately made, and hence interchangeable parts for more or less complex finished products such as watches, guns, washing machines, and automobiles. This development made it physically possible for a machine to produce thousands of units of a given part, all so nearly alike that they could be freely substituted for one another. Standardization—the production of uniform, substitutable parts—was made possible by a humble but far-reaching development, the improvement of measurement devices. Similar small improvements have played large roles in shaping our society, so it is worth describing this one in detail to give you a sense of the mundane aspect of technological development.

要理解标准化的问题，不妨想象一下汽车。如果活塞坏了，你就得去买一个新的。买一个新的活塞并不便宜，但比请机械师根据你的发动机制造一个新的活塞要便宜得多。后者可能要花二三十倍的价钱。将这个比喻扩展到其他领域，我们今天使用的许多机器——例如洗碗机、拖拉机和复印机——都依赖于互换性，即用一个零件替换另一个零件的能力。如果没有互换性，我们拥有的商品数量将远远少于现在，而现有的商品价格也会更高。

To understand the problem of standardization, think of a car. If you blow a piston, you go out and buy a new one. Getting the new piston is not cheap, but it is a lot cheaper than if you had to have a machinist make a new piston to fit your individual engine. It would probably cost twenty or thirty times as much. Extending this analogy to other areas, much of the machinery—for example, dishwashers, tractors, and photocopiers—we use today relies on interchangeability, the ability to substitute one part for another. Without it, there would be far fewer goods than we now have, and those that we do have would be more expensive.

互换性的重要性显而易见。但如果互换性有如此多的优势，为什么早期的机器没有采用可互换的零件制造呢？原因在于技术：为了实现机器的互换性，公差（尺寸和形状的变化）必须小于千分之一英寸。在18世纪和19世纪初，即使是最优秀、最熟练的机械师也无法达到这样的公差，因此，在找到实现这些公差的方法之前，互换性只是一个梦想。

So interchangeability is important; that’s obvious. But if it is obvious that interchangeability has so many advantages, why weren’t early machines built with interchangeable parts? The reason is a technical one: To achieve interchangeability in machines, tolerances (variations in size and shape) must be less than one-thousandth of an inch. With the tools available in the 1700s and early 1800s, even the best, most skilled machinist could not approach such tolerances, so interchangeability was only a dream until some method of achieving those tolerances could be found.

正如许多发明一样，标准化的最强大推动力来自军队。在南北战争（1861-1865 年）之前和期间，每支步枪都必须单独生产。如果一支步枪损坏，就需要熟练的机械师或枪匠来修理。这些工匠会使用各种工具，打造一支火枪，甚至是一支步枪。每支火枪都必须精确制造；也就是说，所有部件，例如枪托、枪管和枪机，都必须配合在一起，作为一个协调的整体工作（因此有“枪机、枪托和枪管”的说法）。但精确并不意味着可互换。枪匠会加工各个部件，直到它们配合在一起，但当他修改每个部件以适应其他部件时，他就使该部件特定于该武器；该部件不能用于其他武器。为了修理步枪，军队必须有自己的火枪制造师，专门修理在战场上损坏的火枪。军队还会设立军械库，用于制造个人武器，军械库是任何国家防御能力的重要组成部分^。1

As has happened with many inventions, the strongest impetus for standardization came from the armed forces. Before and during the Civil War (1861-1865), each rifle had to be produced separately. If one broke, a skilled machinist or gunsmith was needed to repair it. These craftsmen, using a variety of tools, would fashion a musket or even a rifle. Each musket had to be built precisely; that is, all the parts, such as the stock, barrel, and lock, had to fit together and work as a coordinated whole (hence the phrase, “lock, stock, and barrel”). But precision did not mean interchangeability. A gunsmith would work the individual components until they fitted together, but as he modified each part to fit the others, he made it specific to that weapon; the part worked in no other. To repair rifles, armies had to have their own musket makers who would fix individual muskets that had broken in the field. Armies would also keep armories, where they made individual weapons, and armories were an important part of the defense capacity of any country.¹

大约在1820年，一位技艺精湛的火枪制造师约翰·霍尔（John Hall）认为，这种做法效率低下，如果火枪拥有可互换的零件，军队将拥有巨大的优势。军队只需携带备用零件，即可轻松修理损坏的武器。这不仅更便宜，而且效率更高。正如我们之前所述，可互换零件的技术要求非常高，因为如果所有零件都能互换，那么每支火枪都必须精确装配，并且彼此完全相同，而两个人各自生产一整支火枪是无法实现的。

In about 1820, one of the skilled musket makers, John Hall, argued that this procedure was inefficient and that armies would have a tremendous advantage if their muskets had interchangeable parts. An army would only have to carry spare parts, which could easily be used to repair a broken weapon. It would not only be cheaper, but it would also be far more efficient. As we stated earlier, technological requirements for interchangeable parts were enormous because, if all parts were to be interchangeable, each musket had to fit together precisely and be identical to every other in a way that two individuals each producing an entire musket could not accomplish.

为了解决这个问题，霍尔开发了一种精密机械生产方法。精密机械生产的发展需要一系列虽小却极其重要的技术突破，包括采用标准图样而非逐个零件进行测量，以及开发用于比较和测试各个零件的模具。凭借这些技术进步，机器能够达到互换性所需的精度和一致性水平，这一水平甚至远超最熟练的工人所能达到的水平。

To meet the problem, Hall developed a method of precision machine production. The movement to precision machine production required a number of small but extremely important technological breakthroughs, which included measuring from a standard pattern rather than from each piece and the development of dies by which individual parts were compared and tested. With these developments, machines could reach a level of precision and consistency necessary for interchangeability, a level much higher than even the most skilled worker could achieve.

机械师无需测量每个零件，只需制造一个初始零件或模具，然后用配备千分尺的机器制作一个复制件，其流程类似于如今五金店复制钥匙的流程。机器会追踪原始零件，并根据其形状制作新零件。通过这一流程，每个零件都足够相同，从而实现互换。当然，零件之间会存在一些细微的差异，但熟练的机械师可以通过制造每个零件并用千分尺测量其相对于原始零件的尺寸，将各个零件之间的差异保持在可接受的范围内，以实现互换性。

Rather than a machinist measuring each part, a machinist could make an initial part, or die, and then a machine employing a micrometer could produce a duplicate, using a process similar to the one hardware stores use today to duplicate keys. The machine traces the original and fashions the new part to conform. By means of this process, each part is sufficiently identical so that interchangeability is possible. There are, of course, some minute variations, but by making each part and measuring it relative to the original with a micrometer, a skilled machinist can keep the variations between the individual pieces at an acceptable level for interchangeability.

互换性的社会和经济影响

Social and Economic Effects of Interchangeability

互换性技术引入后，生产流程迅速改变，工业革命的步伐也随之加快。20世纪初，亨利·福特通过引入流水线技术，进一步推动了这一发展。在这种生产技术中，工厂中的每个工人在流水线上对一件产品进行单一操作。由于这项创新，20世纪20年代，汽车的价格从大约1600美元降至300美元。

Once interchangeability was introduced, the production process quickly changed and the pace of the Industrial Revolution quickened. In the early 1900s, Henry Ford carried through this development with the introduction of the assembly line, a production technique in which each worker in a factory performs a single operation on an item as it is passed along. Because of this innovation, the price of a car was lowered in the 1920s from about $1,600 to $300.

有了标准化和机器生产，当一台机器生产一个零件时，其他机器也可以生产其他零件。通过流水线，只需组装合适的零件，就能生产出大量的成品。因此，标准化导致了大​​规模生产，即在流水线上使用标准化零件来制造大量产品。

With standardization and machine production, while one machine was making one part, other machines could be making other parts, and by using an assembly line great quantities of the finished product could be turned out by merely assembling the proper parts. Thus standardization led to mass production, the use of standardized parts to construct great quantities of a product on an assembly line.

当然，如果产品卖不出去，大量生产就得不偿失。但当市场足够大时，使用标准互换零件可以实现大规模生产，并大幅降低成本。如果一台机器只能生产少量产品，那么制造一台昂贵的机器来生产标准化零件就毫无价值，因为这少量产品的销售额必须覆盖机器的全部成本。但如果可以大规模生产，并且一台机器可以用来生产数千或数十万个产品，那么每个产品的成本占比就会变得很小，甚至可以忽略不计。因此，只要有机器可以完成必要的操作，用机器代替人力就是值得的。当机器制造的标准化零件在现代装配线上组装成成品时，例如在汽车工业中，大规模生产就能达到很高的效率。

Naturally, it does not pay to make large amounts of a product if that product cannot be sold. But when the market is large enough, the use of standard interchangeable parts makes mass production possible and substantially reduces costs. To construct an expensive machine to make a standardized part would not pay if the machine could be used to produce only a few units of output, because the sale of these few units would have to cover the entire cost of the machine. But if mass production is possible and a machine can be employed to produce thousands or hundreds of thousands of units, the portion of the cost that must be charged to each unit becomes small or even negligible. It then pays to use a machine in place of human labor whenever one can be devised to perform a necessary operation. When standardized parts made by machines are combined into a finished product on a modern assembly line, as in the automobile industry, mass production reaches a high level of efficiency.

互换性和大规模生产对社会的影响是巨大的。个体技术工人不再受到高度尊重；他们的工资下降，社会地位下降，生产商品所需的技能水平也随之下降。因此，他们领导了反对使用新机器的运动。随着技术工人地位的下降，机器拥有者的地位上升。工业家们积累了大量财富，上流社会不得不为这些新富阶层腾出空间。商业提供了一条通往社会阶梯的途径，而随着商人地位的上升，他们也带来了自己的价值观和世界观。军队和武器的成本下降了，战争和杀戮却增加了。

The effects on society of interchangeability and mass production were enormous. Individual skilled workers were no longer held in high esteem; their pay fell, their social position fell, and the skill level necessary to produce goods fell. In response, they led movements against the use of new machines. As the status of skilled workers fell, the status of the owners of machines rose. Fortunes were built by industrialists, and high society had to make room for these newly rich. Business provided a way to move up the social ladder, and as businesspeople moved up, they brought their own values and worldview. Armies and arms became less costly; war and killing increased.

随着可互换零件生产方式的普及，这些影响成倍增加。随着廉价汽车的发展，地理因素对社会的限制发生了变化，城市的性质也发生了变化。廉价拖拉机提高了农业生产力，降低了食品价格，迫使越来越多的人离开农场。如果霍尔或其他人没有找到更精确的机床制造方法，这些变化就不会发生得这么早。

As the interchangeable-parts approach to production spread, these effects were multiplied. With the development of low-priced cars, the limitations geography placed on society changed, and the nature of cities changed. Low-priced tractors increased productivity in farming, lowering food prices and forcing more and more people off the farms. None of these changes would have occurred as early as they did if Hall, or someone else, had not figured out a way to machine-tool more exactly.

全球化的技术基础

The Technological Foundation of Globalization

促进技术发展的政治力量之一是贸易开放和经济全球化。原因在于，技术发展通常与专业化分工和贸易增长息息相关；贸易使经历技术变革的个人和公司能够通过这一过程（即“边学边做”），提升自身能力。随着公司不断学习，他们可以以更低的成本生产更多产品。此外，贸易使公司能够利用规模经济——公司生产设施越大，其单位产品成本就越低。例如，制造一辆汽车的成本极其高昂；而制造多辆汽车，每辆汽车的成本则要低得多。

One of the political forces that has encouraged the development of technology has been the openness to trade and globalization of the economy. The reason is that the development of technology is generally associated with specialization and increased trade; trade allows individuals and companies experiencing a technological change to become better at what they do, in a process called learning by doing. As companies learn, they can produce more products at lower cost. Additionally, trade allows companies to take advantage of economies of scale— the bigger a firm’s production facilities, the lower its per-unit costs of the good. For example, making one car is extremely expensive; making many cars has a much lower per-car cost.

如果一家公司能够以更低的成本生产某种产品，它就能在竞争中胜过其他公司，从而获得巨额利润。有了这些利润，它就可以在研发上投入更多资金，并获得更大的市场份额，前提是其他公司无法迅速复制该技术。全球化——世界经济的一体化——加快了技术变革的速度。全球化传播了技术变革，并创造了强大的激励机制来引入更多变革，因为它创造了一个更大的市场，让公司能够从技术发展中获益。

If a company can produce something more cheaply, it can out-compete other firms and hence make enormous profits. With those profits, it can spend more on research and development and gain even more of the market, as long as other firms cannot duplicate that technology quickly. Globalization—the integration of world economies—increases the speed of technological change. Globalization spreads technological change and creates strong incentives to introduce more change, since it creates a much bigger market within which a company can gain from a technological development.

近年来，全球化发展迅猛。它既促进了技术变革，也受其推动。技术发展使企业能够以低成本在全球范围内进行通信和运输。近年来，美国大量制造业活动转移到印度和中国等国家，对这些国家的经济和文化产生了深远的影响。这不仅使这些国家物质条件改善，也带来了巨大的收入不平等和文化的西化，许多人认为这是一种损失。对美国而言，这加剧了收入不平等，降低了那些原本可以把工作岗位转移到海外的人的工资，同时提高了那些引进新技术的人的工资。

Globalization has been occurring at a fast rate in recent years. It has both encouraged technological change and been spurred on by it. Technological development has allowed companies to communicate cheaply over the entire world and ship goods cheaply as well. In recent years, enormous amounts of manufacturing activity in the United States were transferred to countries such as India and China, with profound effects on their economies and culture. It has made them better off materially, but has also introduced large income inequalities and westernization of their culture, which many people consider a loss. For the United States it has exacerbated income inequalities, lowering the pay of those whose jobs could be sent abroad, and increasing the pay for those who introduced the new technologies.

自然资源、经济和技术

Natural Resources, Economics, and Technology

技术变革的另一个影响是对生态系统的影响。社会科学家经常讨论的一个问题是，是否有足够的资源支持社会持续发展，以及我们是否会在某一天达到增长的极限。这与我们在此的讨论息息相关，因为技术在资源和经济之间提供了必要的联系。要理解这种联系，我们需要考虑经济活动、自然资源和技术的本质。

Another effect of technological change is on the ecosystem, and one of the debates that often surfaces among social scientists concerns whether there are sufficient resources for society to continue to grow, and whether we will someday reach a limit to growth. It is relevant to our discussion here because technology provides a necessary link between resources and the economy. To see this link, we need to consider the nature of economic activities, natural resources, and technology.

经济活动是指那些与谋生有关的活动，它们必然在每种文化中都扮演着重要的角色。其特征主要由三个因素决定。首先，所有人类都对多种稀缺商品有需求。稀缺商品是指数量有限，只有我们生产它们或提供有价值的东西来交换才能获得的商品。满足特定需求的愿望是许多经济活动背后的动机。社会满足这些需求的能力取决于……

Economic activities are those activities concerned with making a living, and they necessarily play a major role in every culture. Their character is largely determined by three factors. First, all human beings have wants for many kinds of scarce goods. Scarce goods are goods that exist in limited quantities and that we can obtain only if we produce them or if we offer something valuable in exchange for them. The desire to satisfy specific wants is the motive behind much economic activity. Society’s ability to meet those wants depends on what

资源是可用的。食物、衣服、住房和武器等经济商品不可能凭空创造。鉴于现有技术，如果人们想要拥有商品，就必须在自然界中找到生产这些商品的原材料——自然资源——然后加工这些原材料。

resources are available. Economic goods such as food, clothing, housing, and weapons cannot be created out of nothing. Given current technologies, if people are to have goods, they must find the raw materials to produce them in nature—natural resources—and then process those raw materials.

满足需求所需的原材料种类和数量取决于技术。事实上，“自然资源”这一概念只有在技术层面才有意义。随着技术的发展，我们对宝贵自然资源的理解也在发生变化。例如，在我们知道如何加工石油并利用其发电之前，石油被视为一种黏糊糊的黑色物质，会使土地无法利用。一旦我们能够提炼石油，它就成为一种宝贵的自然资源。或者，如果开发出一种能够廉价地将沙子变成钢铁般物质的技术，那么……将成为几乎无限量的建筑材料。其他先前有价值的建筑材料将大幅贬值。目前尚处于起步阶段的一项技术变革有可能从根本上改变我们对自然资源的认知。这项技术就是纳米技术。纳米技术——在原子层面操纵物质的技术——使我们能够直接利用原子制造产品。利用纳米技术，我们无需转化已经形成的天然原材料即可制造我们想要的产品和商品。我们可以直接利用原子制造它们，并将生态足迹降至最低。

What, and how many, raw materials are needed to satisfy wants depends on technology. In fact, the concept, natural resources, has meaning only in reference to technology. As technology changes, what we consider valuable natural resources changes. For example, before we knew how to process oil and use it for generating power, oil was seen as black gooey stuff that made land unusable. Once we could refine it, it became a valuable natural resource. Alternatively, if a technology develops that can turn sand into a steel-like substance cheaply, then there will be an almost unlimited amount of building material. Other previously valuable building materials will lose much of their value. One technological change that is currently in its infancy has the potential to fundamentally change what we consider to be a natural resource. That technology is nanotechnology. Nanotechnology—technologies that manipulate matter on the atomic level—allows us to create products directly from atoms. Using nanotechnology we don’t have to transform already formed natural raw materials to create the products and goods we want. We can create them directly from atoms with a minimal ecological footprint.

自然资源、技术与气候变化

Natural Resources, Technology, and Climate Change

20世纪70年代，人们对​​未来资源供应的担忧达到了顶峰，一些生态学家认为我们正走向毁灭。他们的观点有两个：要么我们将耗尽自然资源，要么生产造成的污染将毁灭我们。

Concern about future availability of resources reached a high point in the 1970s as some ecologists argued that we were headed for doom. Their argument was twofold: Either we were going to run out of natural resources, or the pollution resulting from production was going to destroy us.

大多数经济学家认为，当时对生态问题的担忧有些过度。这种观点的基础是技术在变化，而我们所谓的“自然资源”也在变化。20世纪70年代，人们普遍担心石油即将枯竭，但现在人们的担忧是石油过剩。观点转变的原因之一是，自然的供求力量往往会缓解短缺问题。当一种资源变得稀缺时，其价格就会上涨。由于价格上涨，我们对它的使用就会减少，人们就会投入更多资源来设计新技术，以便在不使用这种资源的情况下达到同样的效果。因此，为了应对油价上涨，汽车的燃油效率更高，新的石油来源也得到了开发。

Most economists believed that much of the ecological concern at that time was overdone. The basis of this view is that technology changes, and as it does what we consider “natural resources” change. The fear that we were running out of oil that was rampant in the 1970s has been replaced with a fear that we have too much oil. One reason for the change of view is that the natural forces of supply and demand tend to ameliorate the problems of shortage. As a resource becomes scarcer, its price rises. Because of that price increase, we use less of it and individuals devote more resources to designing new technologies to achieve the same result without using that resource. Thus, in response to higher prices for oil, cars became more fuel efficient, and new sources of oil were developed.

如今，人们对石油的担忧并非在于石油即将枯竭，而是石油的使用会产生所谓的溢出效应或外部性，从而以其他方式危害我们。例如，大量使用石油发电的生态效应之一就是气候变化——人类活动（例如燃烧石油和其他化石燃料）对地球气候的影响（例如全球变暖）。科学家已经确定气候变化正在发生，地球表面的平均温度比一百年前更高。他们预测，地球表面的平均温度将继续快速上升。气温上升可能会对社会产生重大影响，使原本适宜居住的地区变得不再适宜居住，并改变世界其他地区的气候。

Today, the concern about oil is not that we are running out of it but that its use has what are called spillover effects or externalities, which harm us in other ways. For example, one of the ecological effects of the heavy use of oil to generate power is climate change—the effect on earths climate (such as global warming) caused by human activities such as the burning of oil and other fossil fuels. Scientists have determined that climate change is taking place and that the average surface temperature of the earth is higher than it was a hundred years ago. They predict it will continue to rise at a fast rate. That rise in temperature will likely have significant effects on society, making formerly habitable areas uninhabitable, and changing the weather for other parts of the world.

一些社会科学家认为，使用石油和其他化石燃料的溢出效应意味着我们应该回归一个更简单、技术更落后的社会，这样我们才能减少对生态系统的负面影响。另一些人则认为，技术进步才能为我们提供应对气候变化的答案。我们的社会选择何去何从是一个社会问题，它没有正确或错误的答案；社会科学强调这些问题，而不是解答这些问题。

Some social scientists argue that the spillover effects of using oil and other fossil fuels means that we should move back to a simpler, less technologically advanced society, so that we have less of a negative footprint on our ecosystem. Others argue that it is advances in technology that will provide our answers to climate change. What direction our society chooses is a social question that does not have a right or wrong answer; social science highlights the questions; it does not answer them.

人类世

The Anthropocene Age

地质学家将地球的形成划分为多个“时代”或时期。例如，全新世通常始于冰河时代末期，涵盖过去约12000年。然而，近年来，一些地质学家呼吁创建一个新的时代——人类世（人类的时代）。他们认为，人类世这个始于工业革命的时代类别，是为了反映人类活动对世界地质的重大反馈。

Geologists divide the earth’s formation into “ages” or epochs. For example, the Holocene Age generally begins with the end of the Ice Age and comprises the last 12,000 years or so. Recently, however, a number of geologists have been calling for the creation of a new age—the Anthropocene Age (the age of man). They argue that this Anthropocene Age category, which begins with the Industrial Revolution, is needed to reflect the significant feedback of humans’ actions on the geology of the world.

另一些人则认为，这种反馈一直都很重要，如果要使用“人类世”一词，则应该将其追溯到12000多年前，从而使“人类世”一词与“全新世” （Holocene ）同义，后者在希腊语中意为“全新世”。我们认为，这些术语本身并不重要，重要的是围绕它们的争论。它反映了科学家们关于人类对环境的影响应该被重视到何种程度的争论。

Others argue that such feedback has always been important and that if one is to use the term Anthropocene, one should extend it back more than 12,000 years, making the term Anthropocene synonymous with Holocene, which in Greek means “entirely recent.” In our view, the terms themselves are not important, but the debate about them is. It reflects the debate among scientists about how much importance should be given to humans’ influence on the environment.

信息革命

The Information Revolution

这些技术变革被称为信息革命——用计算机处理信息取代人类处理信息。

The technological changes go under the name the Information Revolution—there replacement of human processing of information with computer processing of information.

越来越多的脑力活动可以由计算机更快、更高效、更精确地完成。其中一些活动你们可能很熟悉。数学和文字处理由计算机更有效地完成。同样，计算机很快将比人类更有效地驾驶，你不再需要开车去你想去的地方，而是乘坐一辆智能汽车——它可以自动驾驶。很快，课堂论文写作将由计算机完成，甚至教科书的编写也可能由计算机完成。只需点击论文写作应用程序或社会科学教科书写作应用程序即可。正如你们在附框中看到的，我们还没有到达那一步。但随着人工智能和深度学习的新发展，我们需要开始将计算机视为具有创造力和智能的。这将对社会和文化产生深远的影响。

More and more mental activities can be done more quickly, efficiently, and precisely by computers. Some such activities you are familiar with. Math and word processing are done much more effectively by computers. Similarly, driving will soon be done more effectively by computers than by humans, and instead of driving where you want to go, you will be driven by a smart car—which drives itself. Writing a paper for a class will soon be done by computers, and possibly even writing a textbook. Just click on the paper writing app, or the social science textbook writing app. As you can see in the accompanying box, we are not there yet. But with new developments in artificial intelligence and deep learning, we need to start to think of computers as being creative and intelligent. That has profound implications for society and out culture.

这些发展背后的过程在于计算机的配置方式。最初，计算机的设计初衷是提供具体的答案，并处理定义明确的问题。它们计算素数的能力比我们人类强得多。它们无法处理不完美的数据，也缺乏想象力。而新型计算机的设计更像我们的大脑，就像一个神经网络，旨在处理模糊的问题，并整合将想象力融入推理过程。它们在数据中寻找模式，并从中得出推论。这就是我们所说的智能，也是我们将新型计算机描述为展现人工智能的原因，尽管将其称为非人类智能更为合适。由于它们能够精确处理比人脑多得多的信息，这些计算机神经网络可以发现我们无法发现的模式——这就是我们所说的深度学习，因此它们不仅可以在处理精确信息方面胜过人类，而且在处理模糊信息方面也能胜过人类，我们过去称之为人类直觉，但或许更应该称之为人类深度学习。这是一个美丽新世界。

The process that underlies many of these developments is how computers are configured. Initially they were designed to provide specific answers and deal with well-defined questions. They can calculate prime numbers much better than we can. They couldn’t deal with imperfect data and could not be imaginative. The new computers are designed more like our brains are designed, as a neural net, which are meant to deal with ambiguous questions and integrate imagination into the reasoning process. They find patterns in the data and draw implications from those patterns. That’s what we call intelligence and is why we describe the new computers as exhibiting artificial intelligence, although it would better be called nonhuman intelligence. Because they can precisely process much more information than can our brains, these computer neural networks can find patterns that we cannot find—that’s what we call deep learning, and thus can out-do humans in dealing with not only precise information, but also with ambiguous information using what we used to call human intuition, but which is probably better called human deep learning. It’s a brave new world out there.

正是深度学习和人工智能的这些发展，促使我在本章的开头探讨了计算机在围棋比赛中击败人类的场景。这个故事旨在表达这样一个观点：随着计算机学会做人类传统上做的事情，人类正在变得过时，并被算法所取代。

It was these developments in deep learning and artificial intelligence that led me to begin the chapter with the discussion of a computer beating a human in Go. That story was meant to convey the point that as computers learn to do what humans have traditionally done, humans are becoming obsolete and are being replaced by algorithms.

这场信息革命对社会的影响是巨大的。所有类型的专业工作都将发生改变——对通用思维的需求减少，对协助计算机算法流程的利基技术人员的需求增加。教师、医生或律师等专业工作，过去被认为在社会中扮演着重要角色，并因此受到许多人的青睐，但现在将失去其令人满足的本质。人生的满足感必须来自其他事物。

The implications for society of this Information Revolution are huge. The nature of all types of professional jobs will change—reducing the demand for general purpose thinking, and increasing the demand for niche technicians who assist a computer based algorithmic process. Professional jobs, such as teacher, doctor, or lawyer, which were previously seen as playing an important role in society, and were therefore pleasing to many, will lose much of their fulfilling nature. Life fulfilment will have to come from something else.

例如，假设一位医生，他的工作是会见病人、做出诊断并开出治疗方案，例如服用药物或进行某种手术。现在让我们展望未来。病人打开一个应用程序，该应用程序会进行初步诊断，并建议他或她是否需要去诊断诊所进行全身扫描。计算机算法会利用应用程序和扫描结果中的信息，以及从互联网上获取的病人完整病史，做出诊断：你得了流感，应该（或不应该）服用抗病毒药物。无需医生。那里可能会有一位技术人员向你保证诊断合理，并安慰你，但他也可能被一个安慰机器人取代，它会依偎在你身边，告诉你没事的；过几天你就会感觉好些，并建议你喝点鸡汤。当然，也可能是更严重的情况；比如你需要做手术。计算机算法会安排手术，而这也将由一个由算法引导的机器人完成。

For example, consider a doctor, whose job is to meet with a patient, make a diagnosis, and prescribe a treatment, perhaps to take a medicine, or to have a certain type of operation. Now let’s see the future. The patient opens an app which does an initial diagnosis and advises him or her whether to go to a diagnostic clinic for a body scan. Using the information from the app and the scan, together with your complete medical history of the patient, which it accessed on the Internet, a computer algorithm provides a diagnosis: you have the flu, and should (or should not), take an antiviral. No doctor needed. There might be a technician there to reassure you that the diagnosis makes sense, and to comfort you, but he too might be replaced by a comfort robot, who cuddles up to you, telling you it’s ok; you’ll feel better in a couple of days, and advises you to have some chicken soup. It could, of course, be something more serious; say you need an operation. The computer algorithm will schedule one, and that too would be done by a robot guided by an algorithm.

这些变化不会立即发生。信息革命的算法部分需要几十年甚至几个世纪才能实现。演进过程可能会像这样：将出现越来越多的特定工作算法（SJA），旨在在特定生产领域取代人类。这些算法可能会被命名。例如，全科医生将被算法文档1取代；外科医生将被算法文档-97取代；专门针对35-40岁男性的生活教练将被算法-LC-M35-40取代。同时，通用算法将被创建，用于执行

These changes are not happening immediately. The algorithmic component of the Information Revolution will take decades, even centuries to implement. The evolution will likely go something like this. There will be an increasing number of Specific Job Algorithms (SJAs) designed to replace humans in just specific facets of production. These algorithms will likely be designated by names. For example, General Physicians will be replaced by Algorithm Doc1; Surgeons by Algorithm Doc-97 and Life Coaches specializing in males 35-40 by Algorithm-LC-M35-40. Simultaneously, general-purpose algorithms will be created that can do

他们将承担多种类型的工作——总体规划和监督——并控制和协调具体的算法。个人将协助应用程序处理一些尚不值得设计应用程序的小问题。

multiple types of jobs—overall planning and supervision—and they will control and coordinate the specific algorithms. Individuals will assist the apps handling small issues for which it hasn’t yet been worth designing an app.

不要屏住呼吸，期待立即改变

Don't Hold Your Breath Expecting Immediate Change

一旦我们开发出所有这些技术，问题在于人类将扮演什么角色——所有工作难道​​不会消失吗？正如我们之前所讨论的，情况不太可能如此。根据过去的经验，每个人都会有工作。问题是：这些工作是否是好工作，其薪资水平是否能被人们乃至整个社会接受？这远非定论。信息革命正在创造少量高薪的脑力劳动，以及大量相对低薪且对智力要求不高的脑力劳动。

Once we’ve developed all these, the question is what role will there be for humans—won’t all jobs disappear? As we discussed earlier, that is unlikely to be the case. Based on past experience, there will be jobs for everyone. The question is: Will the jobs be good jobs at pay levels that people, and society as a whole, are willing to accept? That is far from clear. The Information Revolution is creating a small number of very highly paid mental jobs, and a large number of relatively low-paid and not especially intellectually fulfilling, mental jobs.

因此，社会面临的更深层次的问题并非经济问题，而是心理和精神层面的问题。那种因感到被需要而产生的需要感和满足感——做一些自己认为有价值且有益的事情——将会离我们许多​​人而去。正是这种感觉引发了人们对宗教的兴趣，宗教会提出一些关于人生的更宏大的问题：人生的目的是什么？我们为何而生？因此，尽管许多人认为科技是反宗教的，但现代科技的发展很可能正在推动人们进行宗教反思。

So the deeper problem facing society is not economic, but rather psychological and spiritual. The sense of need and fulfilment that comes from feeling needed—doing something that one senses is worthwhile and helpful—will be slipping away from many of us. It is such feelings that generate interest in religion that ask the bigger questions of life: What is its purpose, and why are we here? So while many see technology as anti-religious, modern developments in technology may well be pushing people toward religious reflection.

值得探索的书籍

Books to Explore

• 布朗，大卫·E. 编辑，《发明现代美国：从微波炉到鼠标》，马萨诸塞州剑桥：麻省理工学院出版社，2002 年。
• Brown, David E., ed., Inventing Modern America: From the Microwave to the Mouse, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2002.
• Brynjolfsson，Erik 和 Andrew McAfee，《第二次机器时代》，纽约：W. W Norton，2015 年。
• Brynjolfsson, Erik, and Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age, New York: W. W Norton, 2015.
• 卡尔，尼古拉斯，《玻璃笼子：电脑如何改变我们》，纽约：W W. Norton，2015 年。
• Carr, Nicholas, The Glass Cage: How Our Computers Are Changing Us, New York: W W. Norton, 2015.
• 埃辛格，詹姆斯，《提花网：手工织布机如何引领信息时代的诞生》，牛津：牛津大学出版社，2004 年。
• Essinger, James, Jacquard’s Web: How a Hand Loom Led to the Birth of the Information Age, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2004.
• 弗里曼，约书亚，《巨兽：工厂史与现代世界的形成》，纽约：WW Norton，2018 年。
• Freeman, Joshua, Behemoth: A History of the Factory and the Making of the Modem World, New York: W. W. Norton, 2018.
• 侯赛因，阿米尔，《情感机器：人工智能时代的到来》，纽约：西蒙与舒斯特出版社，2017 年。
• Husain, Amir, The Sentiment Machine: The Coming Age of Artificial Intelligence, New York: Simon and Schuster, 2017.
• 科特勒，史蒂文，《明日世界：从科幻小说到科学事实的旅程》，华盛顿州西雅图：亚马逊出版公司，2015 年。
• Kotler, Steven, Tomorrowland: Our Journey from Science Fiction to Science Fact, Seattle, WA: Amazon Publishing, 2015.
• 米德，玛格丽特，编辑，《文化模式与技术变革》，纽约：新美国图书馆/导师，1956 年。
• Mead, Margaret, ed., Cultural Patterns and Technical Change, New York: New American Library/Mentor, 1956.
• 米利特，大卫，《人类世：人类时代》， Create Space Independent Publishing，2015 年。
• Millett, David, Anthropocene: The Age of Man, Create Space Independent Publishing, 2015.
• 雷德利，马特，《万物的进化：新思想的涌现》，纽约：哈珀出版社，2015 年。
• Ridley, Matt, The Evolution of Everything: Flow New Ideas Emerge, New York: Harper, 2015.
• 施瓦布，克劳斯，《第四次工业革命》，纽约：企鹅兰登书屋，2016 年。
• Schwab, Klaus, The Fourth Industrial Revolution, New York: Penguin Random House, 2016.
• 詹姆斯·什里夫，《基因组战争：克雷格·文特纳如何试图夺取生命密码并拯救世界》，纽约：克诺夫出版社，2004 年。
• Shreeve, James, The Genome War: How Craig Ventner Tried to Capture the Code of Life and Save the World, New York: Knopf, 2004.
• 托夫勒，阿尔文，《未来的冲击》，纽约：班塔姆出版社，1971 年。
• Toffler, Alvin, Future Shock, New York: Bantam, 1971.
• Turkle，Sherry，《孤独在一起：为什么我们对科技的期望更高，而对彼此的期望更低》，纽约：Basic Books，2011 年。
• Turkle, Sherry, Alone Together: Why We Expect More from Technology and Less from Each Other, New York: Basic Books, 2011.
• Warschauer, Mark，《技术与社会包容：重新思考数字鸿沟》 ，马萨诸塞州剑桥：麻省理工学院出版社，2003 年。
• Warschauer, Mark, Technology and Social Inclusion: Rethinking the Digital Divide, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2003.
• 韦纳史密斯，凯利和扎克·韦纳史密斯。《即将到来：十大新兴科技将改善或毁灭一切》。纽约：企鹅兰登书屋，2017年。
• Weinersmith, Kelly and Zach Weinersmith. Soonish: Ten Emerging Technologies That’ll Improve and/or Ruin Everything. New York: Penguin Random House, 2017.
• 韦斯特，达雷尔，《转折点：人工智能时代的政策制定》，华盛顿特区：布鲁金斯学会，2020 年。
• West, Darrell, Turning Point: Policymaking in the Era of Artificial Intelligence, Washington, DC: Brookings, 2020.

值得探索的网站

Internet Sites to Explore

• “ www.cdt.org ”民主与技术中心。
• “www.cdt.org” The Center for Democracy and Technology.
• “ www.epa.gov/climatechange/ ”美国环保署，气候变化。
• “www.epa.gov/climatechange/” EPA, Climate Change.
• “ www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/05/20/406484294/an-nprreporter-raced-a-machine-to-write-a-news-story-whowon ” NPR，一位NPR记者与机器赛跑，争夺新闻报道写作权。谁赢了？
• “www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/05/20/406484294/an-nprreporter-raced-a-machine-to-write-a-news-story-whowon” NPR, An NPR Reporter Raced a Machine to Write a News Story. Who Won?
• “ https://stateimpact.npr.org/florida/2014/03/25/why-computerscored-essays-could-eliminate-the-need-for-writing-tests/ ” Statelmpact，《为什么计算机评分论文可以消除写作测试的需要》。
• “https://stateimpact.npr.org/florida/2014/03/25/why-computerscored-essays-could-eliminate-the-need-for-writing-tests/” Statelmpact, Why Computer-Scored Essays Could Eliminate the Need for Writing Tests.
• “ www.ted.com/talks/matt_ridley_when_ideas_have_sexTlanguage=en ” TED，当思想发生性关系时。
• “www.ted.com/talks/matt_ridley_when_ideas_have_sexTlanguage=en” TED, When Ideas Have Sex.
• “ http://wptt.org/ ”通过科技实现世界和平。
• “http://wptt.org/” World Peace Through Technology.

童年早期的意义

Significance of the Early Years of Childhood

家庭群体中幼儿的经历似乎对人格发展的影响最大。正常的婴儿很早就开始识别熟悉的面孔，感知赞同和反对，寻求关注，并以其他方式对社会环境做出反应。

The experiences of the young child within the family group seem to have the greatest influence on the development of human personality. Very early a normal baby begins to recognize familiar faces, sense approval and disapproval, seek attention, and in other ways react to the social environment.

我们的个性在幼儿时期形成。尽管我们的知识存在巨大差距，但我们已经发现了儿童学习的一些方式。这一发现的领导者之一是著名心理学家让·皮亚杰，他提出了几种被广泛接受的儿童发展理论。他的第一点显而易见：幼儿的思维方式与成人不同。例如，许多孩子认为他们的影子是一个活生生的实体，无论他们走到哪里都会跟着他们。同样，想象中的朋友晚上会在房间里飞来飞去，而从弹珠到吸尘器等无生命的物体都具有非常人性化的特征。对他们来说，现实与想象交织在一起。随着年龄的增长，我们大多数人学会了区分现实与想象。然而，如果一个人缺乏适当的环境，他或她将无法做到这一点，可能会一辈子生活在半幻想的世界中。

Our personalities develop in this early childhood. Although tremendous gaps exist in our knowledge, we have discovered some of the ways in which children learn. One of the leaders in this discovery was noted psychologist Jean Piaget who developed several widely accepted theories on the development of children. His first point is obvious: Very young children think differently from adults. For example, many children think their shadow is a living entity that follows them wherever they go. Similarly, imaginary friends fly around the room at night, and inanimate objects, from marbles to vacuum cleaners, have very human characteristics. Reality for them blends in with imagination. As we grow older, most of us learn to separate reality from imagination. If, however, an individual lacks the right environment, he or she will not be able to do so and may go through an entire lifetime living in a semifantasy world.

皮亚杰认为将儿童的一生划分为四个阶段（如图7.1所示）很有帮助。从出生到两岁，儿童主要关注的是学习关于物理对象的知识。从两岁到六七岁，儿童学习语言、梦境和幻想中的符号。接下来，他们开始学习抽象概念，例如数字及其之间的关系。最后，从十二岁到十五岁，儿童掌握了纯粹的逻辑思维，并学会理解诸如反讽和双关语之类的微妙信息。

Piaget finds it useful to divide a child’s life into four stages (shown in Figure 7.1). From birth to two years, a child is primarily concerned with learning about physical objects. From two to six or seven years, the youngster learns about symbols in language, dreams, and fantasy. Next, he or she begins to learn about abstract concepts such as numbers and the relationships between them. Finally, from ages twelve to fifteen, the child masters purely logical thought and learns to understand nuanced messages, such as irony and double entendres.

为了在情感和心理上正常发展，孩子必须被接纳并获得关爱，但过度保护和过度关爱并不可取，因为它们往往会导致孩子依赖他人，变得不成熟。另一方面，父母的拒绝和缺乏关爱会造成孩子的不安全感和自卑感，并常常引发一些补偿性反应，例如攻击性、叛逆性或霸道性行为。

In order to develop normally both emotionally and mentally, a child must be accepted and receive affection, but overprotection and over affection are not desirable, for they tend to lead to dependency and immaturity. At the other extreme, parental rejection and lack of affection create feelings of insecurity and inferiority and often bring on compensatory reactions such as aggressive, rebellious, or domineering behavior.

随着幼儿的成长，他们不仅会与父母、兄弟姐妹和其他家庭成员接触，还会与邻居、玩伴等外界人士接触。他们的身体能力和语言能力不断增强，并不断适应新的人和新的环境。这些早期的经历会留下几乎不可磨灭的印象，并影响每个人性格的“定型”。

As young children grow, they come into contact not only with parents, brothers and sisters, and other members of the household, but also with outsiders such as neighbors and playmates. They acquire greater physical competence and greater skill in the use of language and continually make adjustments to new people and new situations. These early experiences leave nearly indelible impressions and influence the “set” of each one’s personality.

个体环境差异的重要性

Significance of Differences in Individual Environment

是否有两个个体拥有完全相同的遗传特征尚待考证，但同卵双胞胎的情况与此非常接近。当然，没有两个人拥有完全相同的社会环境。有些个体环境的差异，即使是最粗心的观察者也能一目了然，但其他差异则不那么容易察觉。

It is questionable whether any two individuals have precisely the same hereditary characteristics, though in the case of identical twins there is a close approximation to this situation. Certainly, no two individuals have exactly the same social environment. Some of the differences in individual environments are obvious to the most casual observer, but other differences are not so easy to see.

我们都知道，在像美国这样的国家，人们往往在差异很大的社会环境中成长。首先，不同地区人们的语言、态度和习俗存在显著差异。此外，即使在同一地区，乡村生活和城市生活也存在差异；即使在一个中等规模的城市，也能发现各种各样或多或少不同的社会群体。其中最重要的是那些因收入、社会地位、宗教、国籍或种族差异而彼此不同的群体。但个人社会环境的差异远不止于此。在任何一个社会群体中，不同家庭的生活方式都可能存在显著差异，因此，在一个家庭中长大的孩子可能与在另一个家庭中长大的孩子拥有截然不同的环境。

We are all aware that in a country such as the United States people often grow up in social environments that differ widely. To begin with, there are noticeable differences in the language, attitudes, and customs of the people in different regions. Also, even in the same region there are differences between rural life and city life; and in a city of even moderate size there can be found a great variety of more or less distinct social groups. Among the more important of these groups are those set off from one another by differences in income, social prestige, religion, nationality, or race. But differences in individual social environment go further than this. In any given social group, families are likely to differ significantly from one another in their modes of life, so that a child brought up in one family may have a quite different environment from that of a child reared in another.

所有这些差异都相当明显。虽然不那么明显，但确实如此，在同一个家庭同时长大的两个孩子可能会有截然不同的环境。这是因为社会环境不仅取决于人，还取决于与人之间的个人关系的性质。一个家庭中的一个孩子可能深受父母喜爱，拥有一切优势，甚至可能被过度宠爱，而另一个孩子可能不被喜欢、被忽视，甚至被虐待。显然，这样的孩子根本不拥有相同的环境，差异可能会对他们的心理和情感发展、性格以及他们晚年与他人的关系产生深远而持久的影响。

All these differences are fairly obvious. It is not quite so obvious, but nonetheless true, that two children brought up in the same family at the same time may have quite dissimilar environments. This is because social environment depends not only on people, but also on the nature of personal relations with them. One child in a family may be loved by the parents, given every advantage, perhaps be overindulged, whereas another child may be disliked, neglected, even mistreated. Clearly, such children do not have at all the same environment, and the differences are likely to have deep and lasting effects on their mental and emotional development, on their personalities, and on their relations with other people in later years.

极度孤立对儿童的影响

Effects of Extreme Isolation on Children

这项针对长期缺乏社会接触的儿童的研究，揭示了社会化在儿童时期的发生情况，证明了社会化的重要性。研究还探讨了在以后的岁月中弥补早期未能正常发育的可能性。

The study of children who have been largely isolated from social contacts demonstrates the importance of socialization by showing what happens in its absence. It also considers the possibility of compensating in later years for development that failed to take place earlier at the normal time.

很难找到从出生起就与其他人完全隔绝的孩子。原因很简单。人类婴儿非常无助，如果没有理解其需求的长辈的照顾，他们根本无法生存。然而，也有一些报道指出，一些儿童在幼年时期就与人类部分或完全隔绝，并且持续了相当长一段时间。这些报道分为两类：(1)野性儿童——在野外或未驯服的状态下与动物一起生活的孩子；以及 (2) 一些儿童被隔离在房间、地下室或阁楼里，除了提供食物和水外，几乎得不到任何关注。（还有一些不那么极端的隔离例子，比如一些儿童仅仅被忽视，或者在机构里接受或多或少缺乏人情味的照顾。）

It is impossible to find children who have been completely isolated from other human beings from the time of birth. The reason is simple. The human infant is so helpless that it cannot possibly survive without receiving some care from older people who understand its needs. However, cases have been reported of children who, in early life, have been partially or completely isolated from human contact over considerable periods. These reports are of two types: (1) cases of feral children—children who have lived in a wild or untamed state with animals—and (2) cases of children kept isolated in a room, basement, or attic and given little attention except for being provided with food and drink. (Less extreme examples of isolation occur with children who are merely neglected, or who are cared for, more or less impersonally, in institutions.)

关于野孩子的故事激发人们的想象力。这些故事在各个时代都有流传，人们相信孩子们在很小的时候就被野猪、狼、熊或其他动物照顾。这些故事几乎都是道听途说，它们是否有事实依据令人怀疑。其中最古老的传说或许是关于罗马的传奇开国者——双胞胎罗慕路斯和雷穆斯，据说他们在婴儿时期被遗弃，并被狼哺育。你可能已经注意到，我们的世界历史忽略了这对传奇双胞胎。

Stories of feral children appeal to the imagination. They are stories that have been told in all ages about children believed to have been cared for when very young by boars, wolves, bears, or other animals. These stories have nearly always been spread by hearsay, and it is doubtful whether any of them are based on fact. Perhaps the oldest of such tales is about the legendary founders of Rome, the twins Romulus and Remus, who are said to have been abandoned as infants and suckled by a wolf. As you might have noticed, our history of the world skipped these legendary twins.

唯一可信的报道是关于在印度狼窝里发现的两个孩子的。他们不会说话，据说用四肢奔跑，其他方面也表现出类似动物的行为。在人类的照料下，他们对社交和教育的尝试几乎没有反应，并且都在幼年时期去世。大多数心理学家认为，他们很可能患有婴儿自闭症，这是一种儿童无法对他人的情感做出反应的疾病。大多数心理学家认为，这些孩子在被发现前不久就因为患有自闭症而被遗弃。

The one report that has some credibility is of two children found in a wolf den in India. They could not talk, and they are reported to have run on all fours and in other respects to have exhibited animal-like behavior. Under human care, they responded very little to the attempts made to socialize and educate them, and both died at an early age. Most psychologists believe that they most likely suffered from infantile autism, a condition in which a child is unable to respond emotionally to others. Most psychologists believe these children, not very long before they were found, had been abandoned because they were autistic.

虽然关于野孩子的故事应该持怀疑态度，但似乎有一些确凿的案例，表明一些儿童被锁在地下室、阁楼或楼上房间很长一段时间，几乎与所有正常人际接触隔绝。其中一个案例涉及一个名叫伊莎贝尔的女孩，由于她是私生子，她一直和聋哑母亲一起被关在一个黑暗的房间里，直到六岁半。在另一个案例中，一个名叫安娜的女孩被单独关在一个房间里，直到她六岁左右。

Though stories of feral children should be regarded with skepticism, there appear to be well-authenticated cases of children who for considerable periods of time have been locked in basements, attics, or upstairs rooms and isolated from almost all normal human contacts. One case involved a girl named Isabelle, who, because she was illegitimate, was kept secluded in a dark room with her deaf-mute mother until she was six and a half years old. In another case, a girl named Anna was kept in a room alone until she was about six.

在这些案例中，女孩被发现时，其行为在很多方面都与婴儿或野生动物相似。但伊莎贝尔在被安置在正常的社会环境中并接受特殊训练后，很快就赶上了。几年后，她在学校取得了良好的进步，给人留下了一个聪明、开朗、精力充沛的小女孩的印象。然而，当安娜被安置在正常环境中时，她的进步却远不如人意，在她十岁半去世时，仍然被认为是精神残疾。

In each of these cases, when the girl was discovered, her behavior in many respects resembled that of an infant or a wild animal. But Isabelle, when placed in a normal social environment and given special training, caught up rapidly. In a few years, she was making good progress in school and gave the impression of a bright, cheerful, energetic little girl. However, when Anna was placed in a normal environment, she made much less progress, and she was still considered mentally disabled when she died at the age of ten and a half.

我们无法得知安娜为何未能像伊莎贝尔那样发育良好。或许伊莎贝尔与聋哑母亲的亲密接触让她感受到爱与安全，因此在情感发展方面比安娜更具优势；又或许，在她脱离隔离后，她得到了更多专家的关注。也有可能，伊莎贝尔的基因遗传比安娜更优越。

We have no way of knowing why Anna failed to develop as much as Isabelle. Perhaps Isabelle’s close contact with her deaf-mute mother gave her a sense of being loved and secure, and thus she enjoyed a great advantage over Anna in her emotional development, or it may be that she received more expert attention after she was removed from isolation. It is also possible that Isabelles biological inheritance was superior to Anna’s.

1970年，一名十三岁的女孩被发现，她被命名为吉妮。她被年迈的患有精神疾病的父母绑在房间里，禁止与人接触。她只吃牛奶和婴儿食品，从未被人说过话。她大小便失禁，不会说话，体重只有57磅（约27公斤）。被送往医院后，她学会了交流，尽管母亲说她出生时很正常，但吉妮的智商只有74，语言​​能力也从未完全发育。

In 1970, a thirteen-year-old girl, who was given the name Genie, was found. She had been tied up and kept in a room without human contact by her elderly parents, who were psychologically disturbed. She had been fed only milk and baby food and was never spoken to. She was incontinent, could not speak, and weighed only 57 pounds. After she was brought to a hospital, she learned to communicate, but, although her mother said that she had been normal at birth, Genies IQ was only seventy-four and her language ability never fully developed.

人格及其发展

Personality and Its Development

要全面理解个人与社会的关系，清晰地理解人格的含义至关重要。有人说，每个人在某些方面都与其他人相似，在某些方面又与其他人相似，而在某些方面又独一无二。

To have a full understanding of the relationship between individuals and society, it is helpful to have a clear concept of the meaning of personality. It has been said that every human being is in some respects like all others, in some respects like some others, and in some respects like no others.

正如我们之前提到的，人格可以定义为个体遗传和后天习得特征的总和，并通过个体行为表现出来。人格是个体原始生物本质与其社会和自然环境相互作用的产物。因此，人格带有四方面的印记：

As we mentioned earlier, personality may be defined as the total organization of the inherited and acquired characteristics of an individual as evidenced by the individual’s behavior. It is the product of the interaction between an individual’s original biological nature and his or her social and natural environment. Therefore, it bears the imprint of four things:

1. 个人的遗传潜力
2. The inherited potentialities of the individual
3. 自然环境
4. Natural environment
5. 个人社会的文化
6. The culture of the individual’s society
7. 独特的个人经历
8. Unique personal experiences

然而，人格一旦开始形成，就会成为一种独立的力量，在其未来的发展以及个体对整个环境的适应中发挥主导作用。

However, once personality has begun to form, it becomes an independent force that may play a dominant part in its own future development and in the adjustment of the individual to the total environment.

先天与后天之争

The Nature/Nurture Debate

人类婴儿出生时是无助的。它不会走路，不会说话，甚至无法坐起、翻身或抓握递给它的物品。它不像大多数动物那样具备大量的遗传本能——即无需学习而遗传下来的复杂行为模式。本能使动物能够满足其发育各个阶段出现的需求。鸟类筑巢的本能就是一个很好的例子。

The human baby is a helpless creature at birth. It cannot walk; it cannot talk; it cannot even sit up, turn itself over, or grasp an object it is offered. It is not equipped, as are most animals, with a large number of hereditary instincts—inherited complex patterns of behavior that do not have to be learned. Instincts enable animals to satisfy needs that arise at various stages of their development. A good example is the nest-building instinct of birds.

人类婴儿出生时就具备本能，但他们也拥有与生俱来的成长和发育能力。婴儿逐渐学会适应环境，并在此过程中逐渐意识到自己是一个独立于环境的人。随着身体发育，其学习能力不断增强，但所有日后成为正常人的行为模式都必须学习，而学习的过程并不总是一帆风顺的。

Human babies at birth have instincts, but they also have an innate capacity for growth and development. Gradually, a baby learns to adjust to its environment, and in the process it slowly becomes conscious of itself as a person, separate from its environment. As it develops physically, its power to learn keeps increasing, but all the patterns of behavior that will later characterize it as a normal human being must be learned, and the learning process is not always easy.

婴儿继承的驱动力是满足基本需求的冲动，例如睡眠或食物。当这些需求得不到满足时，婴儿会感到紧张或不适。这些驱动力为学习提供了动力。饥饿是人类最强大的驱动力之一。为了满足饥饿感，婴儿会依赖母亲的乳房或奶瓶。但当婴儿感到饥饿时，营养并非总是唾手可得，随着不适感的增加，婴儿会哭闹。这可能会带来乳房或奶瓶，以及饥饿感得到满足后的愉悦感。不久之后，婴儿就会把哭闹与食物的出现联系起来，因此，一旦感到饥饿，他就会哭闹，以获得满足感。这标志着学习过程的开始，或许也标志着人格发展的开始。

The drives that a baby inherits are urges to satisfy basic needs such as those for sleep or food. When these are not satisfied, they are felt as tension or discomfort. These drives provide the stimulus for learning. One of the most powerful of human drives is hunger. To satisfy hunger, a baby depends on its mother’s breast or a bottle. But when it becomes hungry, nourishment is not always present, and as its discomfort increases, the baby cries. This may bring the breast or the bottle and with it the pleasure that is felt as hunger is satisfied. Before long, the baby associates crying with the appearance of the nourishment, and so it cries as soon as hunger begins in order to bring the satisfaction. This illustrates the beginning of the learning process and perhaps also the beginning of the development of personality.

心理学家 BF 斯金纳在该领域进行了广泛的研究，他非常强调社会对个人的影响。他认为个人的性格很大程度上是由条件作用塑造的。他认为，操作性条件作用可以改变个人的行为——通过行为（操作者）改变个人的习惯，而这些行为本身会对影响个人的环境产生可观察的影响。操作性条件作用通常从正强化、负强化和惩罚三个方面来讨论。强化行为的程序称为强化；抑制行为的程序称为惩罚。强化和惩罚有两种类型，如表 7.1所示。

B. F. Skinner, a psychologist who did extensive research in this area, strongly emphasized the influence of society on the individual. He saw individuals’ personalities shaped in large part by conditioning. He believed that individuals’ behaviors could be changed by operant conditioning—altering individuals’ habits by behaviors (operants) that themselves have an observable effect on the environment affecting an individual. Operant conditioning often is discussed in terms of positive reinforcement, negative reinforcement, and punishment. Procedures that strengthen behavior are called reinforcement; those that suppress behavior are called punishment. There are two types of reinforcement and two types of punishment, as outlined in Table 7.1.

需要注意的是，惩罚不同于负强化。如果你超速行驶并收到超速罚单，你会受到正惩罚。然而，如果法官让你选择参加驾驶培训课程或吊销驾照，那就是负强化的例子。你参加培训课程是为了避免更糟糕的结果——吊销驾照。总而言之，正强化和负强化都是强化行为的程序。正惩罚和负惩罚都是削弱行为的程序。

It is important to note that punishment is not the same as negative reinforcement. If you speed and get a speeding ticket, you experience a positive punishment. If, however, the judge offers you the choice of attending a driver education class or losing your license, that’s an example of negative reinforcement. You attend the class to avoid a worse alternative—losing your license. To summarize, positive and negative reinforcement are both procedures that strengthen behavior. Positive and negative punishment are both procedures that weaken behavior.

强化和惩罚对人格的影响使个体面临一些艰难的选择。例如，父母应该安慰还是忽视一个哭闹的孩子？安慰会强化不良的哭闹行为；另一方面，忽视可能会让孩子感到不被爱，并对孩子的成长产生不良影响。

The effects of reinforcement and punishment on personality leave individuals with some hard choices. For example, should parents console or ignore a crying child? Consoling can reinforce undesirable crying behavior; on the other hand, ignoring might make the child feel unloved and have an undesirable influence on the child’s development.

为了验证他的理论，斯金纳对老鼠和兔子等实验动物进行了大量的研究。他和他的追随者已经证明，动物可以被训练去做一些事情，比如推杆以获取食物或水。这类实验总体上没有争议（除非实验直接伤害动物）。但当斯金纳的理论扩展到人类以及人类的学习方式时，可能会引起争议。

Skinner did extensive work with laboratory animals such as rats and rabbits to test his theories. He and his adherents have shown that animals can be taught to do things such as push on a bar to receive food or water. Such laboratory work is, on the whole, non-controversial (except when the experiments directly harm animals). But when Skinner’s theories are extended to humans and to the way humans learn, they can be controversial.

一些研究人员过于强调惩罚和强化的影响，以至于他们的理论几乎没有空间容纳任何其他人格决定因素。此外，他们还从这些理论中衍生出许多教育和颇具争议的康复计划建议。例如，斯金纳学派开发了程序化的文本，为学生提供快速的正强化。此外，一些性犯罪者可能会接受康复计划，该计划规定，每当他们看到性唤起的图片时，就会受到电击（正惩罚），旨在改变他们的行为。

Some researchers have emphasized the influence of punishment and reinforcement so strongly that little room remains in their theories for any other determinants of personality. Moreover, they have derived from these theories a number of proposals for education and controversial rehabilitation programs. For example, Skinnerians developed programmed texts that provide fast positive reinforcement for students. Also, some sex criminals may submit themselves to a rehabilitation program in which whenever they are shown sexually arousing pictures, they experience an electric shock (positive punishment) designed to modify their behavior.

斯金纳强调环境在塑造人格方面的作用，但这一观点遭到许多心理学家的质疑，他们更强调遗传的作用，即特征从父母遗传给后代。双方之间的争论通常被称为

Skinner’s emphasis on the environment’s role in shaping personality is disputed by many psychologists who emphasize instead the role of heredity, the genetic transmission of characteristics from parent to offspring. The debate between the two sides has often been called the

先天与后天之争。先天与后天之争的焦点在于，在决定一个人的性格和人生成就方面，遗传和环境哪个更重要。这就像问：“汽车行驶时，汽油和发动机哪个更重要？” 显然，汽车要行驶，汽油和发动机缺一不可。同样，婴儿要正常发育，必须拥有合理的生物遗传和合理的社会环境。

nature/nurture debate. The nature/nurture debate focuses on whether heredity or environment is more important in determining the personality and the success in the life of an individual. It is like asking, “Which is more important in making an automobile run—the gasoline or the engine?” Quite obviously, if the car is to run at all, both gasoline and an engine must be provided. Likewise, if a baby is to develop normally, it must have both a reasonably adequate biological inheritance and a reasonably adequate social environment.

如果我们能以某种方式将两个相同的个体置于不同的环境中，我们就能回答这个问题。然而，没有两个人的生理结构完全相同（即使是同卵双胞胎也会有一些细微的差异），也没有两个人拥有完全相同的环境背景。因此，研究人员必须专注于研究人群，以确定遗传和环境哪个更重要。

If we could somehow take two identical individuals and place them in different environments, we could answer the question. However, no two people are physiologically identical (even identical twins have some slight differences), and no two people have the same environmental background. Instead, researchers must concentrate on groups of people to determine whether heredity or environment is more important.

然而，人们一直在尝试确定遗传和环境的相对重要性。其中一个例子就是关于人们性取向的研究。研究人员试图通过研究具有相同基因构成的同卵双胞胎和基因构成不同的异卵双胞胎的选择，来确定人们的选择是由先天决定还是后天决定。这些研究都发现，这些选择既源于先天，也源于后天；通常，研究人员将大约三分之一的因果关系归因于遗传，三分之二归因于环境。然而，研究人员提醒说，这些结果仍处于初步阶段，大多数研究人员认为两者密不可分，先天因素为后天因素奠定了基础。还有其他研究。布鲁克大学的安东尼·博加特发现，有哥哥的男孩比没有哥哥的男孩更容易成为同性恋，而且兄弟越多，成为同性恋的概率就越高。然而，继兄弟的情况并非如此，所以原因更可能是先天因素而非后天因素。他推测这与男孩母亲产生的抗体有关，这些抗体会影响未来孩子的性取向。

There have, however, been attempts to determine the relative importance of heredity and environment. An example of the research involved people’s sexual choices. Researchers have attempted to determine whether peoples choices are determined by nature or nurture by studying the choices of identical twins, who have the same genetic makeup, and fraternal twins, who do not. These studies have all found that these choices stem from both nature and nurture; generally the researchers have attributed roughly one-third of the causation to genetics and two-thirds to environment. Researchers caution, however, that these results are still preliminary, and most researchers see the two as inextricably linked, with nature setting the scene for nurture. There are other studies as well. Anthony Bogaert of Brock University found that boys with older brothers had a higher probability of being gay than those without, and that the more brothers one had, the higher the probability of being gay. That was not the case for stepbrothers, however, so the reason is more likely nature than nurture. He hypothesized that it had something to do with antibodies developed by the mother of boys that affect the sexual orientation of future children.

最近，研究人员针对肥胖问题进行了一项先天/后天因素的测试。研究对象为被领养儿童，提出的问题是：这些孩子更像他们的亲生父母（先天）还是养父母（后天）。研究发现，肥胖的亲生父母的孩子更容易肥胖。养父母的肥胖对他们的影响很小。在这种情况下，先天因素似乎比后天因素更重要。

Recently, a test of the nature/nurture question was conducted with respect to obesity. The population studied consisted of adopted children, and the question posed was: Would the children resemble their biological (nature) or their adoptive (nurture) parents? In this study, it was found that children of obese biological parents tended to be obese. The obesity of the adopted parents had little effect. In this case, nature seems more important than nurture.

近期关于先天与后天之争的讨论往往侧重于强调两者之间复杂的相互作用。例如，智力的遗传性指标会随着年龄的增长而上升，从儿童时期的40%上升到成年时期的60%。新西兰心理学家詹姆斯·弗林认为，原因在于出生时智力的细微差异会导致照料者以不同的方式对待孩子：看似更聪明的孩子在学习中会得到更强烈的强化，而看似不那么聪明的孩子则会受到负面强化。正如我们在第二章中所讨论的，表观遗传学领域（研究由基因表达而非基因本身引起的基因功能改变）的最新研究，使得后天因素能够反哺于此前被认为是先天因素的因素。总而言之：后天因素和先天因素错综复杂地相互关联，以至于几乎不可能明确区分两者。

Recent discussions of the nature/nurture debate have tended to emphasize the complex interaction between the two. For example, measures of the inheritability of intelligence rise with age, from 40 percent in childhood to 60 percent in adulthood. James Flynn, a psychologist in New Zealand, suggests the reason is that a slight difference in intelligence at birth leads caregivers to treat children differently, with the seemingly brighter child being more strongly reinforced in learning, while the seemingly less bright child receives negative reinforcement. As we discussed in Chapter 2, recent work in the field of epigenetics—the study of modification in gene functions caused by the expression of genes, not the genes themselves—allows nurture to feed back into what was previously considered nature. The bottom line: nurture and nature are so intricately interconnected that there is little hope in definitively distinguishing the two.

行为解释

Explanations of Behavior

先天与后天之争是心理学中关于如何更好地理解行为的更大争论的一部分。我们总结了四种一般方法：

The nature/nurture debate is part of a larger debate in psychology about how best to understand behavior. We distinguish four general approaches:

1. 认知方法关注自然；它将思想视为行为的发起者和决定因素。在这种方法中，人类行为代表着对大脑中物理过程的反应，而认知科学——一门研究心智的科学——则被用来解释行为。
2. The cognitive approach focuses on nature; it sees thought as the initiator and determinant of behavior. In this approach, human actions represent reactions to physical processes in the brain, and cognitive science—the scientific study of the mind—is looked to for explanations of behavior.
3. 精神分析方法也关注自然，但它并不依赖认知科学。相反，它采取了一种更神秘的方法，关注人类某些先天倾向。最著名的精神分析方法是弗洛伊德的，我们将在本章后面讨论。弗洛伊德的方法关注潜意识及其与意识思维和行为的关系。除了弗洛伊德的方法之外，精神分析方法还衍生出多种治疗方法，其中之一就是阿尔伯特·埃利斯的“理性情绪疗法”，稍后也会讨论。
4. The psychoanalytic approach also focuses on nature, but it does not look to cognitive science. Rather, it takes a more mystical approach, focusing on certain innate tendencies of people. The most well-known of the psychoanalytic approaches is Freuds, which we discuss later in this chapter. Freud’s approach focuses on the unconscious and its relation to conscious thoughts and actions. The psychoanalytic approach has produced a variety of therapeutic approaches besides that of Freud, one of which is Albert Ellis’s “rational emotive therapy,” also discussed later.
5. 行为主义方法关注的是行为，而非思想。BF·斯金纳是这种方法的倡导者。行为主义方法最近又增加了一种新方法——我们不妨称之为生物心理学方法。这种方法既源于生物学，也源于心理学，它将行为简单地视为对身体化学刺激的反应（尽管其基础通常没有如此直白地阐述）。在这种方法中，人们认为一个人的基因结构决定了其行为的范围；而化学信使则决定了该范围内的具体行为。心智则被视为物质世界的一部分。
6. The behavioralist approach focuses on actions, not thoughts. B. F. Skinner was an advocate of this approach. The behavioralist approach has a recent addition—what might be called the biopsychological approach. Flowing from biology as much as it does from psychology, this approach views behavior simply as responses to chemical stimuli in the body (although its basis often is not put so bluntly). In this approach, one’s genetic structure is believed to determine the ranges of behavior one will display; the chemical messengers determine specific behaviors within that general range. The mind is seen as just another part of the physical world.
7. 人文主义方法强调人的整体性及其与文化的相互关系。亚伯拉罕·马斯洛的著作（稍后讨论）就是这种人文主义方法的一个例子。
8. The humanist approach emphasizes the entire person and his or her interrelationship with culture. Abraham Maslow’s work, discussed later, is an example of this humanist approach.